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NFL Betting Breakdown: Bruce Marshall

San Diego (4-6) at Houston (6-4)

■ Time: 10 a.m.

■ Line/Total: Chargers -2½, 46½

■ Bruce Marshall’s analysis: This is not ideal scheduling for Houston, which had a short week after its Monday loss to the Raiders at Mexico City. San Diego is refreshed after its much-needed bye. But the Texans at least are back at home, where they are 5-0. Houston still leads the AFC South. Yes, Brock Osweiler continues to struggle with his accuracy, but he did beat the Chargers last season while with Denver, and he can lean on the best platoon on the field, which is Houston’s defense. Philip Rivers and the Chargers have nearly played themselves out of the AFC playoff mix while finding creative ways to lose.

■ By the numbers: San Diego ranks No. 8 in the NFL in total offense (378 yards per game) and No. 2 in scoring (29.2). … Rivers has passed for 20 touchdowns with 11 interceptions. … Osweiler has 12 touchdown passes and 10 interceptions. … Houston is 4-0-1 against the spread at home. … The Chargers are 3-2 ATS as road underdogs this season. … San Diego is 9-2 over the total in its past 11 games.

■ Marshall’s pick: Texans, 28-23

Tennessee (5-6) at Chicago (2-8)

■ Time: 10 a.m.

■ Line/Total: Titans -6, 42

■ Bruce Marshall’s analysis: Rumors continue to fly of a massive housecleaning in Chicago following the regular season. Even in a competitive effort versus the Giants last week, the Bears’ flaws were hard to camouflage, as they could not score in the second half after building a 16-6 lead. The banged-up offensive line once again didn’t protect Jay Cutler, who was sacked four times. Cutler is out, and Matt Barkley is making his first NFL start. Tennessee has been alternating wins and losses the past month. But Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota is now limiting his mistakes.

■ By the numbers: Tennessee has scored 31 points per game in its past seven. … The Titans are 11-3 over the total in their past 14. … Mariota has 23 touchdown passes with eight interceptions. … Chicago ranks 31st in scoring offense at 15.7 points per game.

■ Marshall’s pick: Titans, 31-17

Jacksonville (2-8) at Buffalo (5-5)

■ Time: 10 a.m.

■ Line/Total: Bills -7½, 45

■ Bruce Marshall’s analysis: So much for Jaguars coach Gus Bradley throwing offensive coordinator Greg Olson under the bus a few weeks ago. Blake Bortles continues to make mistakes, and the running attack is still sluggish. Bradley might not survive much longer. More problems loom, as Buffalo’s stout rush defense could render Jacksonville one-dimensional again. I would prefer Bills running back LeSean McCoy to be 100 percent, but elusive quarterback Tyrod Taylor is doing more than enough to keep Buffalo in the playoff discussion.

■ By the numbers: Bortles threw two interceptions last week, upping Jacksonville’s turnover total to 21. … The Jaguars are 2-5 ATS in their past seven on the road. … The Bills lead the league in rushing offense at 157.8 yards per game.

■ Marshall’s pick: Bills, 30-13

Cincinnati (3-6-1) at Baltimore (5-5)

■ Time/TV: 10 a.m., KLAS (8)

■ Line/Total: Ravens -4, 40½

■ Bruce Marshall’s analysis: Only because the Ravens and Steelers have struggled to get above .500 has Cincinnati been able to stay close in the mediocre AFC North. But storm signals continue to gather for the Bengals, who are now minus running back Giovani Bernard and wide receiver A.J. Green. That’s bad news for Andy Dalton, who won’t be able to rely upon an infantry diversion versus a stout Baltimore rush defense allowing only 3.3 yards per carry. The Ravens have lost the past five in the series, but their physical defense is the best platoon on the field.

■ By the numbers: The Bengals’ aging defense ranks 24th and has allowed 400-plus yards in three of the past six games. … Baltimore ranks No. 2 in total defense. … The Ravens are 9-3 under the total since late last season. … Joe Flacco has 10 touchdown passes and nine interceptions for Baltimore’s 22nd-ranked offense.

■ Marshall’s pick: Ravens, 23-16

Arizona (4-5-1) at Atlanta (6-4)

■ Time/TV: 10 a.m., KVVU (5)

■ Line/Total: Falcons -5½, 51

■ Bruce Marshall’s analysis: The Cardinals have doused all of their Super Bowl hype by dropping under .500 by Thanksgiving. Carson Palmer’s decline has been a major reason the former quick-strike offense has been replaced by a ground-based emphasis featuring running back David Johnson. But that might not be enough to keep pace with Matt Ryan, who’s having a career year. The Atlanta attack is also likely whole again following a bye week, as key running back Tevin Coleman returns to action.

■ By the numbers: Ryan has completed 68.2 percent of his passes while totaling 3,247 yards and 24 touchdowns. … Palmer, who has 13 touchdown passes and 10 interceptions, has been sacked 30 times. … Johnson is third in the league in rushing with 863 yards. … The Falcons are 8-2 over the total, and the Cardinals are 4-0 over the total on the road.

■ Marshall’s pick: Falcons, 33-24

San Francisco (1-9) at Miami (6-4)

■ Time: 10 a.m.

■ Line/Total: Dolphins -7, 45½

■ Bruce Marshall’s analysis: The 49ers are starting to take baby steps, forcing both the Cardinals and Patriots to sweat a bit the past two weeks. We’ve seen a few signs of the old, rollicking Colin Kaepernick lately. And the return of running back Carlos Hyde to active duty has added some spark. But the San Francisco defense too often looks like one of this year’s soft Pac-12 stop units, letting another running back (New England’s LeGarrette Blount) top 100 yards last week. So Miami’s Jay Ajayi is licking his chops. The Dolphins showed guts in comeback wins at San Diego and Los Angeles and are very much in the AFC playoff mix with five straight wins

■ By the numbers: Ajayi is seventh in the league in rushing yards (802) and second in yards per carry (5.6). … San Francisco is 1-8 ATS since beating the Rams in Week 1. … The 49ers are 6-3 over the total in their past nine games. … Miami is 4-1 over the total at home.

■ Marshall’s pick: Dolphins, 34-20

Los Angeles (4-6) at New Orleans (4-6)

■ Time: 10 a.m.

■ Line/Total: Saints -7, 46

■ Bruce Marshall’s analysis: The New Orleans defense is showing slight improvement in the past five games, thanks partly to the availability of players such as rookie defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins and cornerback Delvin Breaux. The Saints are down but not yet out of the chase in the NFC South. Rams rookie Jared Goff did OK in his first start, but Los Angeles converted only 2 of 13 third downs, providing little support for a defense that eventually wore down and allowed 14 points in the last five minutes. The L.A. defense will hang tight for much of this game, but in Goff’s first road start, any mistakes will be magnified by Drew Brees.

■ By the numbers: Goff completed 17 of 31 passes with no touchdowns and no interceptions last week against the Dolphins. … Brees leads the NFL in touchdown passes (26) and ranks No. 2 in completion percentage (71.0). … The Saints are 6-1 ATS in their past seven games.

■ Marshall’s pick: Saints, 27-15

N.Y. Giants (7-3) at Cleveland (0-11)

■ Time: 10 a.m.

■ Line/Total: Giants -7, 45

■ Bruce Marshall’s analysis: Could this be the week for the winless Browns? NFL infamy is now just five games away. Reports say Robert Griffin III (left shoulder fracture in Week 1) is close to returning. But coach Hue Jackson said it will be Josh McCown at quarterback with rookie Cody Kessler sidelined due to a concussion. The Giants’ three straight home games helped Eli Manning get in a groove with elite wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. and ascending rookie Sterling Shepard.

■ By the numbers: Beckham leads the Giants with 59 receptions. … Shepard has 44 catches for 476 yards and five touchdowns. … The New York defense allowed 14.8 points per game in the past four. … The Browns are 1-7 ATS in their past eight games.

■ Marshall’s pick: Giants, 26-13

Seattle (7-2-1) at Tampa Bay (5-5)

■ Time: 1:05 p.m.

■ Line/Total: Seahawks -6, 46½

■ Bruce Marshall’s analysis: The Seahawks are historically weak road favorites. But Russell Wilson is getting healthier and impressively exploiting Seattle’s weapons, as seen in victories over Buffalo, New England and Philadelphia. Seahawks running back Thomas Rawls is back to keep defenses honest. Seattle is clearly superior on defense.

■ By the numbers: Tampa Bay is 1-6 ATS in its past seven at home, yielding 30 and 43 points in recent losses to Oakland and Atlanta. … Wilson has 11 touchdown passes this season, including six in the past three games. … Seattle ranks No. 1 in scoring defense by allowing 17.3 points per game.

■ Marshall’s pick: Seahawks, 30-20

Carolina (4-6) at Oakland (8-2)

■ Time/TV: 1:25 p.m., KLAS (8)

■ Line/Total: Raiders -3, 49½

■ Bruce Marshall’s analysis: Luke Kuechly, the Panthers’ stellar linebacker, is out after last week’s scary concussion. Oakland’s offense is fine. The defense is shaky, however, ranking 29th. There will be opportunities for Cam Newton and his underrated cast of receivers. It’s a meaningful game for Carolina coach Ron Rivera, who played his high school ball in Seaside (by the beautiful Monterey Bay) and then starred at California as an All-American linebacker. The game also means a lot for the Panthers’ playoff hopes.

■ By the numbers: The Raiders’ Derek Carr has 20 touchdown passes with four interceptions. He has been sacked 11 times. … Newton has passed for 11 touchdowns with seven interceptions. He has been sacked 25 times. … Oakland is 1-3 ATS at home this year and 3-9 ATS at home in two years for coach Jack Del Rio.

■ Marshall’s pick: Raiders, 27-26

New England (8-2) at N.Y. Jets (3-7)

■ Time: 1:25 p.m.

■ Line/Total: Patriots -7½, 46

■ Bruce Marshall’s analysis: Jets coach Todd Bowles is going back to Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback. Tom Brady and tight end Rob Gronkowski are listed as questionable for the Patriots, but Brady is expected to start. Expect a last-gasp effort from the Jets. This is traditionally one of the toughest stops on the Patriots’ schedule.

■ By the numbers: The Jets are 5-0-1 ATS in the teams’ past six meetings. … Brady has 16 touchdown passes with one interception in his six games this season. … Brady ranks No. 3 in the league in completion percentage (70.4), behind leader Sam Bradford and Drew Brees. … Fitzpatrick has thrown 13 interceptions. … The Jets’ Matt Forte has 732 rushing yards and 23 receptions for 179 yards.

■ Marshall’s pick: Patriots, 27-23

Kansas City (7-3) at Denver (7-3)

■ Time/TV: 5:30 p.m., KSNV (3)

■ Line/Total: Broncos -3½, 39½

■ Bruce Marshall’s analysis: Kansas City easily could have swept the series last year, as Denver somewhat amazingly scored 14 points in the last 36 seconds of the first meeting. Even with last week’s home loss to Tampa Bay, the Chiefs have notably won 17 of their past 20 regular-season games. The Broncos are hoping an injection is going to help cornerback Aqib Talib recover from his back injury. Meanwhile, Chiefs wide receiver Jeremy Maclin is on the sidelines.

■ By the numbers: The Chiefs have won and covered their past three on the road. … Andy Reid is 1-5 straight up and 2-4 ATS versus the Broncos since becoming Kansas City’s coach in 2013. … Denver ranks No. 4 in total defense (318 yards per game) and No. 8 in scoring defense (18.9). … Kansas City ranks No. 25 in total defense (373.7) and No. 5 in scoring defense (18.7).

■ Marshall’s pick: Broncos, 20-19

Green Bay (4-6) at Philadelphia (5-5)

■ Time/TV: 5:30 p.m. Monday, ESPN

■ Line/Total: Eagles -4, 47½

■ Bruce Marshall’s analysis: Eagles rookie QB Carson Wentz (4-0 straight up and ATS at home) seems just as comfortable in Philadelphia as when playing in Fargo at North Dakota State. Meanwhile, Green Bay lost last week at Washington while missing at least six starters. But the Packers got help by tight end Jared Cook. If Green Bay can’t fill its holes in the offensive line and get some ground support, the Eagles’ pass rushers could have just as much fun with Aaron Rodgers as they had recently against the likes of Ben Roethlisberger, Sam Bradford and Matt Ryan (combined two touchdowns and 11 sacks when playing at Philadelphia.)

■ By the numbers: Rodgers is second in the league with 25 touchdown passes. … Green Bay is 3-8-1 ATS in its past 12 regular-season games. … Philadelphia is 4-0 under the total at home. … The Packers allowed 42, 47, 31 and 33 points in their past four games, all losses.

■ Marshall’s pick: Eagles, 31-25

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