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NFL Betting Breakdown: Micah Roberts

Washington (4-3) vs. Cincinnati (3-4)

Where: Wembley Stadium, London

Time/TV: 6:30 a.m., KVVU (5)

Line/Total: Bengals -3, 49

Micah Roberts’ analysis: I have no idea what is going on with the Bengals, but something isn’t right. Cincinnati’s only wins have come against bad Jets, Dolphins and Browns teams. The Bengals failed to cover against every other decent opponent. I consider the Redskins to be decent, as they have won and covered four of their past five. Ten of the past 12 Washington games went over the total. I don’t like the side, but betting this over the total looks attractive.

By the numbers: The Bengals’ Andy Dalton ranks fourth in the NFL with 2,065 yards passing. He has eight touchdowns and two interceptions. … The Redskins’ Kirk Cousins ranks sixth with 1,996 yards passing. He has 10 touchdowns and six interceptions. … Dalton has been sacked 22 times, compared with 10 times for Cousins. … Cincinnati’s A.J. Green is the league leader with 50 receptions. … The Bengals are 2-6-1 against the spread in their past nine regular-season games.

Roberts’ pick: Bengals, 34-31

Detroit (4-3) at Houston (4-3)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Texans -1½, 46

Micah Roberts’ analysis: Will everyone please give Texans quarterback Brock Osweiler a break? His only losses this season were on the road to New England, Minnesota and Denver, teams that are a combined 16-4. Osweiler has won all four of his home games. The Lions come in hot, winning and covering their past three games. Still, I like Osweiler to bounce back at home and win a low-scoring game.

By the numbers: Osweiler has completed 58.2 percent of his passes with eight touchdowns and eight interceptions. … The Lions’ Matthew Stafford has completed 68.1 percent with 15 touchdowns and four interceptions. … Detroit ranks 11th in scoring offense at 24.3 points per game; Houston ranks 31st at 16.7. … The Texans are 7-1-1 ATS in their past nine home games.

Roberts’ pick: Texans, 23-13

Seattle (4-1-1) at New Orleans (2-4)

Time/TV: 10 a.m., KVVU (5)

Line/Total: Seahawks -2, 48

Micah Roberts’ analysis: The Seahawks will see an extreme change of pace after last week’s 6-6 draw at Arizona. The Saints are on an 8-0-1 run over the total at the Superdome, where Drew Brees always puts up big numbers. I expect the Seahawks to score a lot. Seattle put up 26, 27 and 37 points in the three games before playing Arizona. I’m not so sure Brees and the Saints will have success against the Seattle defense, and that has me staying away from the total. New Orleans has covered its past three games, but its cover streak should end here.

By the numbers: New Orleans ranks third in scoring offense at 29.3 points per game. The Saints scored 34, 32 and 41 points in their three home games this season. … Brees is second in the league with 2,101 yards passing, and he leads the league with 17 touchdowns. … Seattle ranks sixth in total defense (310.2 yards per game) and is tied with Minnesota for No. 1 in scoring defense (14.0 points per game). … New Orleans ranks last in scoring defense by allowing 32.5 points.

Roberts’ pick: Seahawks, 34-20

New England (6-1) at Buffalo (4-3)

Time/TV: 10 a.m., KLAS (8)

Line/Total: Patriots -6½, 47

Micah Roberts’ analysis: The public is all over the Patriots, who are 6-1 ATS, and they love riding along with the Tom Brady vengeance tour. The Bills will be without running back LeSean McCoy. Buffalo is the only team to beat the Patriots this season — without Brady, of course. This line is twice what it should be, and normally I’m on the home underdog when perceiving value, but I’m not going against New England right now.

By the numbers: Brady has a 25-3 record against the Bills. … The Patriots are 10-2 ATS in their past 12 trips to Buffalo. … In three starts this season, Brady has completed 75.2 percent of his passes for 1,004 yards with eight touchdowns and no interceptions. … Rex Ryan is 6-2-1 ATS in his past nine versus Patriots coach Bill Belichick. … New England ranks No. 4 in scoring defense at 15.3 points per game.

Roberts’ pick: Patriots, 31-17

New York Jets (2-5) at Cleveland (0-7)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Jets -2½, 44

Micah Roberts’ analysis: This starts a Browns run of six of their next nine games at home, and sharp money took a shot with them at plus-3 in this spot. Cleveland can win this one, but I need to see it before I start believing. The Jets beat Baltimore last week to end a four-game slide, but they are no bargain on the road at 1-3 ATS. I’m going to lay points with the Jets on the road? No thanks.

By the numbers: Ryan Fitzpatrick, who sparked the Jets in relief last week, leads the league with 11 interceptions. … The Jets’ Matt Forte rushed for 100 yards on 30 carries against the Ravens a week ago. … Josh McCown returns as the Browns’ starting quarterback. In Week 2 against the Ravens, he completed 20 of 33 for 260 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. … The Browns are 2-5 ATS and 5-2 over the total.

Roberts’ pick: Jets, 21-20

Oakland (5-2) at Tampa Bay (3-3)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Pick, 49

Micah Roberts’ analysis: When seeing the Raiders are scheduled for back-to-back road games in Florida, the thought is the NFL screwed them. But that’s not the case. The Raiders requested the back-to back games and stayed in Florida for their practices this past week. It will be a well-rested Oakland team that won’t have that awful travel stigma attached to a West Coast team playing an early game. It’s another reason for me to bet the Raiders. I also feel I’m getting the best of the number because Oakland should be minus-1. The Raiders have won and covered all four of their road games. Oakland’s defense will allow the Buccaneers to put plenty of points on the board, but Derek Carr will outshoot Jameis Winston.

By the numbers: Carr has 13 touchdown passes and has been sacked only seven times. … Winston has been intercepted nine times and sacked 14 times. … The Raiders are 10-2 ATS on the road under coach Jack Del Rio. … Tampa Bay is 2-7 ATS in its past nine home games.

Roberts’ pick: Raiders, 38-27

Kansas City (4-2) at Indianapolis (3-4)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Chiefs -2½, 50

Micah Roberts’ analysis: I have not downgraded the Colts as much this season as what the books are showing. At the same time, I have not been too aggressive with the Chiefs’ rating increasing. Kansas City’s plus-7 turnover ratio has helped it win some games, but the fact remains the Chiefs are 2-4 ATS. Expect Andrew Luck and the Colts to play this down to the final seconds like they do every week. Indianapolis has won and covered in its past three against the Chiefs. Look for a high-scoring game and a Colts win.

By the numbers: Luck ranks third in the league with 2,074 yards passing to go with 14 touchdowns and four interceptions. He has been sacked a league-high 25 times. … Kansas City has slipped to 23rd in total defense (371.3 yards per game), while Indianapolis’ defense ranks 28th (399.7). … Luck has led the Colts on an 8-0 ATS run as home underdogs.

Roberts’ pick: Colts, 34-31

Arizona (3-3-1) at Carolina (1-5)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Panthers -3, 47½

Micah Roberts’ analysis: I believe the 1-5 Panthers are basically throwing the season away. Their body language is awful. This point spread says the teams are equal, but that’s not really the case. The Cardinals’ No. 2-ranked defense alone makes them two points better in this spot, so if I can get plus-3, I’m taking it. These are not the same teams from the NFC title game in which Carolina rolled. Arizona is surely more polished this season, and since it’s not the playoffs, Carson Palmer should have a decent game against a Carolina defense that allows 371 yards per game. The Panthers are minus-8 in turnovers, a true sign they have packed it in. Arizona’s defense and its running attack should produce a road win.

By the numbers: Carolina’s Cam Newton has eight touchdown passes and six interceptions. A year ago, he passed for 35 touchdowns with 10 interceptions. … Cardinals coach Bruce Arians is 13-6 ATS in his past 19 regular-season games as an underdog.

Roberts’ pick: Cardinals, 24-21

San Diego (3-4) at Denver (5-2)

Time: 1:05 p.m.

Line/Total: Broncos -4½, 44

Micah Roberts’ analysis: The Chargers have covered their past three games, including a 21-13 victory over the Broncos in Week 6. Denver has stayed under the total in its past four games, and that may be the way to look here with six of the teams’ past eight meetings staying under. The Broncos’ sluggish offense will be hampered even more with running back C.J. Anderson out. I give the Chargers a great shot to win, but just to be safe because all of their games go down to the wire, take the points.

By the numbers: Denver ranks No. 3 in total defense and No. 6 in scoring defense (16.7 points per game). … San Diego ranks No. 2 in scoring offense (29.4). … The Chargers’ Philip Rivers is fifth in the league with 2,018 yards passing. … Rivers is 3-1 ATS as a road underdog this season. … The Chargers are 9-1-2 ATS in their past 12 games at Denver.

Roberts’ pick: Chargers, 20-17

Green Bay (4-2) at Atlanta (4-3)

Time/TV: 1:25 p.m., KVVU (5)

Line/Total: Falcons -3, 52½

Micah Roberts’ analysis: I realize the Packers don’t look so hot right now, and the Falcons, despite a home loss last week, have looked amazing, but are we ready to say these teams are equal? That’s what the number is saying. Green Bay is playing well below expectations, yet there seems to be too much of a knee-jerk reaction with this number. The most likely thing to occur is the Packers rise and the Falcons go back to their routinely disappointing form. I still have the Packers minus-1 on a neutral field. I give Atlanta, where there’s a lot of empty seats, only two points for home field. The spread should be no more than Atlanta minus-1½.

By the numbers: Atlanta’s air attack is led by Julio Jones, who has a league-high 830 yards receiving, and Matt Ryan, who has a league-high 2,348 yards passing. … Aaron Rodgers is 22nd in the league with 1,496 yards passing for Green Bay, which ranks 20th in passing offense and 19th in rushing offense. … The Packers rank seventh in total defense by allowing 314 yards per game. … Green Bay is 6-10-1 ATS in its past 17 regular-season games.

Roberts’ pick: Packers, 27-23

Philadelphia (4-2) at Dallas (5-1)

Time/TV: 5:30 p.m., KSNV (3)

Line/Total: Cowboys -5, 43

Micah Roberts’ analysis: The Cowboys, awful over the years as home favorites, are 4-11-1 ATS in their past 16 home games. But Dallas did cover its past two at home against the Bears and Bengals. The Eagles had some trouble on the road at Detroit and Washington before coming up with a big performance at home against the previously undefeated Vikings last week. Philadelphia’s No. 5-ranked defense looked outstanding against Minnesota, and this is a good spot for the Eagles to slow the Cowboys’ top-ranked rushing offense. Plus, Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott is probably feeling added pressure with Tony Romo’s return looming.

By the numbers: The Cowboys are 5-0-1 ATS, with a push in a season-opening 20-19 loss to the New York Giants. … Prescott has seven touchdown passes and one interception. … Eagles rookie Carson Wentz has eight touchdowns and three interceptions. … Philadelphia went over the total in its past seven road games. … The road team has won the past six meetings in this NFC East series.

Roberts’ pick: Eagles, 24-20

Minnesota (5-1) at Chicago (1-6)

Time/TV: 5:30 p.m. Monday, ESPN

Line/Total: Vikings -4½, 40½

Micah Roberts’ analysis: I will not lay the points with Minnesota, and it’s not because Bears quarterback Jay Cutler is back. Cutler’s worth to the line is nothing. The spread is so high just to accommodate bookmakers’ expectations of all the public money showing on the road favorite. I want no part of that stuff, and I certainly don’t want any part of taking the perceived value with Chicago at home. What I think I can rely on is the Minnesota defense to be a beast again, and the Vikings’ offense to be extremely vanilla again. It sounds like the perfect recipe for a low-scoring game.

By the numbers: Sam Bradford, off his worst start and first loss with the Vikings, has completed 67.5 percent of his passes with seven touchdowns and one interception. … Chicago ranks last in scoring offense at 15.9 points per game. … The Bears are 2-9 ATS in their past 11 games.

Roberts’ pick: Vikings, 16-13

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