NFL betting breakdown: Vick might ignite Jets at Kansas City

Around the NFL, the New York Jets are the butt of jokes, with a coach on the hot seat, a clueless general manager and a quarterback carousel fit for a circus. And Michael Vick is now the lead rider on the carousel.

The Jets, 1-7 and winless since beating Oakland in Week 1, are finally benching Geno Smith and turning to Vick in hopes the veteran can make them competitive today.

Kansas City is a 9½-point favorite over the Jets, who are 2-9 in their past 11 road games as they head into the hostile environment that is Arrowhead Stadium.

Las Vegas handicapper Chuck Edel (SportsXradio.com) makes a case for a “contrarian play” on the underdog, mainly because of the quarterback switch made by New York coach Rex Ryan.

“I’m not saying I’m a Vick fan, but there’s no question in my mind he’s going to be an improvement over Geno,” Edel said. “With a week to practice with the starting unit, it’s totally different, and Vick is definitely an improvement.”

In the Jets’ 43-23 loss to Buffalo a week ago, Smith completed 2 of 8 passes for 5 yards with three interceptions. In relief, Vick was 18-for-36 with one interception and two lost fumbles. Vick carried the ball eight times for 69 yards.

Edel said a key to success for the Jets will be for Vick and running back Chris Ivory to make plays on the ground. Vick has another weapon to use in wide receiver Percy Harvin, recently acquired in a trade with Seattle.

The Jets turned in two of their best efforts on the road, losses of 31-24 at Green Bay and 27-25 at New England.

The Chiefs (4-3 straight up, 5-2 against the spread) are powered by the league’s No. 3 rushing offense. New York ranks No. 5 in rush defense.

“I think it’s going to be a low-scoring game, which points me toward the ’dog,” said Edel, who also recommends a play under the total of 42.

Edel (@chuckedel on Twitter) analyzes the rest of today’s Week 9 lineup:

■ San Diego at Miami (-2): The Chargers have lost two in a row, with Philip Rivers throwing three interceptions in the two losses. He has 20 touchdown passes and five interceptions this season. The San Diego defense is banged up. The early starting time on the East Coast is a negative factor for the Chargers, who have not won in Miami since 1981. The Dolphins’ new offensive coordinator, Bill Lazor, is mixing the run with the pass well, and quarterback Ryan Tannehill has had runs of 30 yards or more in each of the past three games. I like the way Miami is playing. I lean to the Dolphins, who have won two in a row.

■ Jacksonville at Cincinnati (-10½): The Bengals are 14-3 ATS in their past 17 home games. The Jacksonville defense is playing well, but rookie quarterback Blake Bortles has been horrible, throwing 12 interceptions in six games. He can’t handle the pressure. When being rushed by five or more players, Bortles has a 35.3 QB rating. Giovani Bernard, Cincinnati’s leading rusher with 446 yards, is out and rookie Jeremy Hill will start at running back. It looks as if wide receiver A.J. Green will return from a foot injury. This is a lot of points for the Bengals to lay. I lean to the Jaguars, whose defense is playing well enough to keep them in the game.

■ Tampa Bay at Cleveland (-6½): It’s tough to back the Buccaneers, who rank 32nd in total offense and total defense. The Browns (4-3) are 3-1 at home with wins against New Orleans, Pittsburgh and Oakland. Brian Hoyer has been pretty solid, throwing only two interceptions. How do you lay 6½ points with the Browns? I can see why some people would bet Tampa Bay, but for me it would be Cleveland or nothing.

■ Washington at Minnesota (-1): Everyone was pumping up quarterback Colt McCoy after the Redskins won at Dallas on Monday, but you’re not going to get that effort out of him every week. I think Robert Griffin III is a small improvement. Griffin has not played since Sept. 14, but if he’s decent, that could be enough. The Vikings’ offense is weak, and their defense is keeping them in games. I like Washington in what is probably a low-scoring game.

■ Philadelphia (-1½) at Houston: I had the Eagles last week, and they dominated Arizona in a loss. Philadelphia’s offense broke down twice at the goal line. I’m not sold on this Houston offense. Arian Foster is second in the league with 766 yards rushing, but Ryan Fitzpatrick is obviously a shaky quarterback. The Texans rank 24th in total defense, and Philadelphia can move the ball on them. I lean to the Eagles.

■ Arizona at Dallas (-2½): Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo is a game-time decision with a back injury. Brandon Weeden would start, and I don’t care how good Weeden looked last week against the Redskins. Dallas is No. 1 in rushing offense behind DeMarco Murray, but Arizona ranks No. 3 in rushing defense by allowing 77.9 yards per game. The Cowboys are controlling time of possession and using so much clock by running the ball, but if they can’t do that here, their defense could get exposed. I think both teams are overrated. I have to pass on this game.

■ St. Louis at San Francisco (-9½): I was fading the 49ers for a while, but they are starting to play a little better. In the teams’ first meeting last month, the Rams were in the game late in the first half. Colin Kaepernick passed for 343 yards and three touchdowns in his best game of the season as San Francisco pulled away to win 31-17. The Rams tend to play the 49ers tough. But St. Louis is a banged-up team missing top wide receiver Brian Quick, left tackle Jake Long and other key players. It’s too many points to lay, so I’m going to stay away from the game.

■ Denver (-3) at New England: I like the Broncos here. I think they have the better offense and better defense. Cincinnati was a 2½-point favorite at New England on Oct. 5, and the Bengals got blown out, but this line is right and it might be a little cheap for Denver. The Patriots looked good offensively last week against Chicago, but the Bears are bad news. I am a little nervous about the possibility of bad weather. The only scary thing is Peyton Manning is not a good quarterback in the slop. I know New England is so good at home, but the line is cheap.

■ Oakland at Seattle (-14½): The Seahawks are struggling with their wide receivers, but they will be able to run the ball. Rookie quarterback Derek Carr has been decent for the Raiders, passing for nine touchdowns with five interceptions, but Oakland’s offense will have a lot of trouble. Seattle has not scored more than 27 points in a game since Week 1. I like this to stay under the total of 43.

■ Baltimore (-1½) at Pittsburgh: There is some money coming in on the Ravens, just like last week. Baltimore dominated the first game, beating the Steelers 26-6 on Sept. 11. Ben Roethlisberger just lit up the Colts for 522 yards passing and six touchdowns, and Pittsburgh’s offense is playing well. But the Steelers are banged up on defense and can be scored on. This is not a strong play, but I lean to the Ravens.

COMPILED BY MATT YOUMANS LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL