NFL betting breakdown: Week 1
Scott Kellen, SixthSenseSports.com, @SixthSenseNFL
Raiders at Chargers
Time: 1:25 p.m., KLAS-8
Line/total: Chargers -3½, 52
Analysis: The Raiders’ big addition on offense is wide receiver Davante Adams. On defense, they added edge rusher Chandler Jones, who replaces Yannick Ngakoue. Those changes have covered up the fact that the Raiders enter this season with what I rate as the worst offensive line in the NFL. The Chargers didn’t make many significant changes on offense. The improvements needed to come in the secondary and run defense. For that, they added defensive end Morgan Fox, defensive tackle Sebastian Joseph-Day, edge rusher Khalil Mack and cornerbacks Bryce Callahan and J.C. Jackson, who will miss the game.
By the numbers: In a trend favoring Los Angeles, Week 1 divisional teams that didn’t make the playoffs the previous season are 35-14 ATS vs. teams that did. … In the past two seasons, the Raiders have allowed an average of 32 points per game as road underdogs vs. above average offenses.
Pick: Chargers 29, Raiders 26
Ravens at Jets
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Ravens -6½, 44
Analysis: Baltimore hopes to get healthy after being decimated by injuries last season. It will be without left tackle and Bishop Gorman product Ronnie Stanley. But the Ravens get back quarterback Lamar Jackson after he missed five games last season. The Jets had a great draft and return two defensive stars who missed most of last season in Carl Lawson and Lamarcus Joyner. This game will be tough for the Jets with an immobile Joe Flacco playing quarterback and injuries on the offensive line.
By the numbers: Week 1 nondivisional road favorites of -4 or more with totals higher than 42 are on an 18-5 under run. … The Ravens are 5-1 ATS in Week 1.
Pick: Ravens 23, Jets 16
Saints at Falcons
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Saints -5½, 43
Analysis: This Saints team is much better than last season’s. They get back QB Jameis Winston, who was 5-2 last season before getting hurt. The receivers are much better with Michael Thomas coming back from a two-year injury, first-round draft choice Chris Olave and Jarvis Landry. The Saints defense is always stout. Atlanta traded QB Matt Ryan and will replace him with Marcus Mariota. I rate the quarterback change a 2½-point downgrade.
By the numbers: Week 1 divisional home underdogs are 20-5-1 ATS since 2009. … The Saints have won and covered the past four meetings in Atlanta.
Pick: Saints 27, Falcons 19
Patriots at Dolphins
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Dolphins -3½, 46½
Analysis: Lots of talk about who will be the offensive coordinator for New England. No excuses for Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa, as the Dolphins upgraded the receiving room with Tyreek Hill and Cedrick Wilson and upgraded the offensive line with Terron Armstead and Connor Williams. New coach Mike McDaniel comes over from the 49ers to install the Kyle Shanahan offense, which is quarterback friendly.
By the numbers: In a trend favoring Miami, Week 1 divisional teams that didn’t make the playoffs the previous season are 35-14 ATS vs. teams that did. … The Patriots have lost seven of their past nine meetings in Miami.
Pick: Dolphins 25, Patriots 24
Browns at Panthers
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Pick’em, 42
Analysis: Carolina upgrades at quarterback with former Cleveland QB Baker Mayfield. The Browns will roll with QB Jacoby Brissett until Deshaun Watson comes back. While Brissett is average at best, the style of play for Cleveland suits him well when facing below average teams. I rate these teams about even, but Cleveland’s offensive line and secondary are superior to Carolina’s.
By the numbers: Panthers coach Matt Rhule is 1-6 straight up and ATS as a home favorite.
Pick: Browns 23, Panthers 21
Steelers at Bengals
Time: 10 a.m., KLAS-8
Line/total: Bengals -7, 44½
Analysis: Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger retired. Though he was getting old, I still rated him about a point better than new Steelers starter Mitchell Trubisky. After their Super Bowl run, the Bengals knew they needed to upgrade their offensive line and added center Ted Karras, right guard Alex Cappa and right tackle La’el Collins.
By the numbers: Pittsburgh allowed an average of 34 ppg last season as road underdogs vs. above average offenses.
Pick: Bengals 27, Steelers 17
49ers at Bears
Time: 10 a.m., KVVU-5
Line/total: 49ers -6½, 40½
Analysis: San Francisco trots out QB Trey Lance, who will line up behind a weak middle of the offensive line with center Alex Mack and left guard Laken Tomlinson gone. Niners star tight end George Kittle (groin) could miss this game. The Bears bring in a new coaching staff and will give the keys to QB Justin Fields.
By the numbers: The Bears went 0-5 straight up and ATS last season as home underdogs, including a 33-22 loss to the Niners.
Pick: 49ers 24, Bears 19
Eagles at Lions
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Eagles -5½, 48½
Analysis: The Eagles had one of the better offseasons in terms of adding talent, highlighted by the acquisition of wideout A.J. Brown. Detroit gets back two key members of a good offensive line. On defense, the Lions added No. 2 overall pick Aidan Hutchinson at edge rusher.
By the numbers: The Lions were 6-2 ATS as home underdogs last season. One of the losses was a 44-6 rout by the Eagles. … Philadelphia went 9-1 last season vs. teams that finished with losing records, with seven wins by double digits.
Pick: Eagles 29, Lions 22
Colts at Texans
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Colts -7, 45½
Analysis: The Matt Ryan era begins in Indianapolis. Shaquille Leonard is out for the Colts. Lovie Smith takes over as Houston’s coach and is building his defense, adding edge rusher Jerry Hughes and rookie cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. The Colts crushed the Texans twice last season, 31-0 in Houston and 31-3 at home.
By the numbers: Week 1 divisional home underdogs are 20-5-1 ATS since 2009. … As road favorites against teams that finished .500 or worse, the Colts are 0-4 ATS vs. Jacksonville and 6-0 ATS vs. all other teams.
Pick: Colts 28, Texans 19
Jaguars at Commanders
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Commanders -3, 44
Analysis: Jacksonville will be better this season simply because Urban Meyer is no longer the coach. The Jaguars also were -20 in net turnover differential last season. Historically in the NFL, teams are much improved in that category the next season. Washington added QB Carson Wentz in an effort to bring stability to the position.
By the numbers: In a trend favoring Jacksonville, Week 1 road underdogs of fewer than seven points who won fewer than seven games the previous season are 43-15-2 ATS. … Washington is 0n a 1-6 ATS skid as a home favorite. … The Jaguars are mired in a 17-game road losing streak.
Pick: Commanders 24, Jaguars 19
Chiefs at Cardinals
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/total: Chiefs -6½, 53½
Analysis: The Patrick Mahomes era without Tyreek Hill begins. Arizona lost wideout Christian Kirk and edge rusher Chandler Jones and added receiver Marquise Brown. The Cardinals start the season without suspended star receiver DeAndre Hopkins.
By the numbers: As road favorites in domes with Mahomes, the Chiefs have averaged 33 ppg. … As home underdogs against above average offenses under coach Kliff Kingsbury, the Cardinals have allowed 31 ppg.
Pick: Chiefs 32, Cardinals 26
Packers at Vikings
Time: 1:25 p.m., KVVU-5
Line/total: Packers -1; 46½
Analysis: Green Bay suffered a major loss when it traded Davante Adams to the Raiders. But the Packers get back five key players from injuries, including left tackle David Bakhtiari and cornerback Jaire Alexander. Minnesota replaced coach Mike Zimmer with former Rams offensive coordinator Kevin O’Connell, who should orchestrate a more efficient attack. The Vikings also upgraded their defense, adding edge rusher Za’Darius Smith and linebacker Jordan Hicks. Edge rusher Danielle Hunter returns after missing 10 games last season.
By the numbers: Week 1 divisional home underdogs are on a 20-5-1 cover streak.
Pick: Packers 28, Vikings 24
Giants at Titans
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/total: Titans -5½, 44
Analysis: The Giants bring in new coach Brian Daboll, formerly Buffalo’s offensive coordinator. Daboll can help QB Daniel Jones, and New York has a chance to improve if it can find a way to stay healthy at the skill positions. Tennessee will try to replace wideout A.J. Brown with Robert Woods, who is coming off an injury.
By the numbers: In a trend favoring the Giants, Week 1 road underdogs of fewer than seven points who won fewer than seven games the previous season are 43-15-2 ATS.
Pick: Titans 27, Giants 19
Buccaneers at Cowboys
Time: 5:20 p.m., KSNV-3
Line/total: Buccaneers -2½, 50½
Analysis: There’s been a lot of talk about Tampa Bay’s decimated offensive line. The theme is that the interior of the unit is in trouble and Tom Brady struggles if teams put pressure on him up the middle. But the two cornerstones of the line, at left tackle and right tackle, are still around, and Tampa Bay added right guard Shaq Mason, Brady’s former teammate in New England. The Cowboys have more serious issues, including their offensive line, where left tackle Tyron Smith will be out for most of the season. Wideouts Amari Cooper and Cedrick Wilson are gone, and Michael Gallup is out. Edge rusher Randy Gregory also is gone.
By the numbers: Week 1 home underdogs in prime-time games are on a 12-4 ATS run.
Pick: Buccaneers 30, Cowboys 23
Broncos at Seahawks
Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN
Line/total: Broncos -7, 44½
Analysis: QB Russell Wilson takes over in Denver to try to fill the one missing piece since Peyton Manning retired. Seattle starts its post-Wilson era with QB Geno Smith. The Seahawks picked up tight end Noah Fant in the Wilson trade and tried to upgrade their offensive line with first-round draft pick Charles Cross. Seattle’s defense suffered significant losses with the departures of linebacker Bobby Wagner and corner D.J. Reed.
By the numbers: Week 1 Monday night home underdogs of fewer than seven points are 17-5 ATS.
Pick: Broncos 24, Seahawks 20
