NFL betting breakdown: Week 8
BETTING BREAKDOWN
Alex B. Smith, @axsmithsports, Covers.com, axsmithsports.com
Raiders (3-3) at Browns (5-2)
Time: 10 a.m, KVVU-5
Line/total: Browns -2½, 49
Analysis: The Raiders head to Cleveland this week after getting demolished 45-20 by Tom Brady and the Buccaneers, allowing 454 total yards. The Browns begin life without star wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr., who tore his ACL in a 37-34 win over Cincinnati last week. Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield will look to duplicate his five-touchdown-pass performance against a Las Vegas defense that yields an average of 284 yards per game.
By the numbers: The teams have combined for a 10-2-1 over-under record. … The Raiders are on a 4-8 straight-up skid but are on a 4-1 ATS surge on the road. … The Browns have failed to cover in seven of their last 10 games but are on a 7-1 straight-up run at home.
Pick: Browns 28, Raiders 20
Colts (4-2) at Lions (3-3)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Colts -3, 49½
Analysis: The Lions improved to .500 after a dramatic 23-22 win over Atlanta. Detroit QB Matthew Stafford engineered a game-winning, 75-yard TD drive, hitting tight end T.J. Hockenson with an 11-yard TD pass as time expired. Now the Lions take on a Colts club that boasts one of the NFL’s best defenses and is refreshed after a bye week. QB Philip Rivers had a strong game in Indianapolis’ 31-27 win over Cincinnati two weeks ago, with 371 yards and three TDs. Look for the veteran to put up big numbers against Detroit’s weak pass rush.
By the numbers: The Lions are on a 5-12 ATS skid over and 4-9 ATS as underdogs. … Detroit is on an 8-1 over-under run. … The Colts are 1-7 straight up in their last eight road games, but have won four of the past five meetings against the Lions.
Pick: Colts 30, Lions 17
Vikings (1-5) at Packers (5-1)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Packers -6, 49½
Analysis: Green Bay continues to surge toward the top of the NFC, picking up a 35-20 victory at Houston last week despite missing star running back Aaron Jones and top offensive lineman David Bakhtiari. Now the Packers host a Vikings team coming off a bye week, in which they traded linebacker Yannick Ngakoue to the Ravens for draft picks. That might be a sign that Minnesota realizes it won’t be a playoff contender. Green Bay torched the Vikes in a 43-34 Week 1 win, and I’m anticipating another big day for Aaron Rodgers and company, who have won eight straight games at Lambeau Field.
By the numbers: The Packers have won 11 of their last 13 games and are riding an 8-3 cover streak vs. the Vikings at home. … The under is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings. … Minnesota is on an 0-16-1 straight-up slide outdoors against teams with a winning record.
Pick: Packers 38, Vikings 23
Patriots (2-4) at Bills (5-2)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Bills -4, 40½
Analysis: They say all good things must come to an end, and it seems as if New England’s dominant run in the AFC East is winding down after almost two decades as the Bills are leading the division. The Patriots lost their third straight game in last week’s 33-6 blowout loss to the 49ers. Buffalo eked out an 18-10 victory over the lowly Jets, kicking six field goals. Bills QB Josh Allen will have to find the end zone early and often for Buffalo to win this game.
By the numbers: The Patriots are 7-0 straight up and 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings against Buffalo, but they’re on a 2-4 spread skid on the road. … The Bills are on a 3-7 spread slide. … Buffalo is on a 5-2 under run at home.
Pick: Patriots 23, Bills 20
Titans (5-1) at Bengals (1-5-1)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Titans -7, 50½
Analysis: Tennessee lost its first game in last week’s 27-24 defeat to the 6-0 Steelers. Next up for the Titans is another AFC North foe in the Bengals, who suffered a 37-34 loss to Cleveland in the final seconds. I expect both quarterbacks to throw for a lot of yards and points. Cincinnati rookie Joe Burrow threw for 406 yards against the Browns, and Tennessee QB Ryan Tannehill has thrown for 15 TDs and two interceptions.
By the numbers: The Titans are on a 2-5 ATS slide overall, but they’ve won seven of their last eight road games. … The Bengals are on a 4-1 ATS surge and have gone over in four of their last five games. … Cincinnati is 3-16-1 straight up in its last 20 games.
Pick: Titans 38, Bengals 31
Jets (0-7) at Chiefs (6-1)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Chiefs -20, 49
Analysis: The defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs continue to be one of the AFC’s best teams. They blew out Denver 43-16 in the snow last week and now take on a Jets team stuck in a nightmare season, though New York did get its first cover in an 18-10 loss to Buffalo. It seems as if Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City offense can name the score here. But favorites of -20 or higher are 31-36-2 ATS dating to 1957. Last season, the Jets covered as 21-point underdogs in a 30-14 Week 3 loss at New England.
By the numbers: The Chiefs are 14-2 ATS in their past 16 games overall and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 at home. … The Jets are on a 1-6 ATS slide overall and are 2-6 ATS in their last eight meetings against the Chiefs.
Pick: Chiefs 35, Jets 13
Rams (5-2) at Dolphins (3-3)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Rams -3½, 45½
Analysis: Rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa makes his first start for the Dolphins after their bye week against the Rams’ staunch defense led by Aaron Donald. Los Angeles beat Chicago 24-10 on Monday night, holding the Bears to 49 rushing yards. That’s the second time in three weeks that the Rams have held an opponent to fewer than 50 yards on the ground.
By the numbers: Los Angeles has won six of its past eight games overall and is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 road games. … The Dolphins have gone under in four of their past six games but are riding an 11-5 over run in their last 16 games in November.
Pick: Rams 27, Dolphins 21
Steelers (6-0) at Ravens (5-1)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Ravens -4½, 46½
Analysis: Pittsburgh is the NFL’s only unbeaten team and will try to extend its run against bitter rival Baltimore. The Ravens are coming off their bye week and hope to have RB Mark Ingram back after he injured his ankle in their last game, a 30-28 victory over Philadelphia. The Steelers have been getting great offensive production from veteran QB Ben Roethlisberger and his new favorite target in rookie receiver Chase Claypool. This game should come down to the wire as usual.
By the numbers: The Steelers have covered five of their last six games overall, but are on a 2-6-1 ATS slide vs. the Ravens. … Pittsburgh is on a 6-13 under streak. … The Ravens are 15-2 straight up in their last 17 games and 12-4-1 ATS. … Baltimore is on a 2-5 under surge.
Pick: Steelers 27, Ravens 24
Chargers (2-4) at Broncos (2-4)
Time: 1:05 p.m., KLAS-8
Line/total: Chargers -3½, 44½
Analysis: The teams at the bottom of the AFC West face off in frosty Denver, where the Broncos got crushed 43-16 last week by Kansas City despite holding the Chiefs’ potent offense to 286 yards. Chargers QB Justin Herbert finally picked up his first victory as a starter in last week’s 39-29 home win over Jacksonville, throwing for 347 yards and three TDs. Denver has played the Chargers well over the years, winning 14 of the past 18 meetings overall and six of the last seven at home.
By the numbers: The Broncos are riding a 5-13 under streak at home. … Los Angeles is on a 4-1 cover run, but has lost nine of its last 12 games vs. AFC opponents.
Pick: Broncos 24, Chargers 20
Saints (4-2) at Bears (5-2)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/total: Saints -5, 42
Analysis: The Bears continued to struggle offensively in Monday’s 24-10 loss to the Rams, scoring a field goal and defensive TD. Now they host Drew Brees and a New Orleans squad that notched its third straight win in last week’s 27-24 victory over Carolina. New Orleans has scored at least 20 points in 14 consecutive games and should continue that streak against a Bears defense that has been inconsistent.
By the numbers: The Saints have won the last five meetings against Chicago, going 4-1 ATS. … New Orleans is on a 15-5 straight-up run overall but is 1-4 ATS in its last five outings. … The Bears are on a 6-13 ATS slide. … Chicago is on a 7-1 under uptick at home.
Pick: Saints 26, Bears 19
Niners (4-3) at Seahawks (5-1)
Time: 1:25 p.m., KVVU-5
Line/total: Seahawks -3, 53½
Analysis: The Seahawks will look to get back into the win column against division foe San Francisco after suffering their first defeat in last week’s 37-34 loss at Arizona. Seattle QB Russell Wilson continues to cook with this offense, throwing for a league-leading 22 TDs (and six interceptions). The Niners picked up a 33-6 win at New England despite missing many key players because of injury. They will look to reverse the trend of losing to Seattle, which has won 11 of the last 13 meetings.
By the numbers: The Seahawks are riding a 14-4 cover streak against San Francisco, but they’re on a 5-9 ATS skid at home. … The Niners are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games. … San Francisco is on a 7-13 under streak in November.
Pick: Seahawks 31, Niners 24
Cowboys (2-5) at Eagles (2-4-1)
Time: 5:20 p.m., KSNV-3
Line/total: Eagles -10½, 42½
Analysis: This battle in the “NFC Least” is not exactly must-see TV during its prime-time slot, especially with Dallas down another quarterback after Andy Dalton suffered a concussion in last week’s 25-3 loss at Washington. The Cowboys and rookie QB Ben DiNucci take on an Eagles team that has had extra time to prepare after their 22-21 comeback victory over the Giants on “Thursday Night Football.”
By the numbers: Dallas is 0-7 ATS this season, but the Cowboys are riding a 15-5 ATS streak vs. NFC East foes. … The Eagles are 4-9 ATS in their past 13 games overall and 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games against the NFC East.
Pick: Eagles 24, Cowboys 17
Buccaneers (5-2) at Giants (1-6)
Time: 5:15 p.m, Monday, ESPN
Line/total: Buccaneers -12½, 45
Analysis: This matchup looks to be potentially one-sided, as Tom Brady leads Tampa Bay’s high-powered offense against a Giants squad that has been awful on both sides of the ball. New York has allowed an average of 356 yards per game and has scored 21 points or fewer in six of its seven games.
By the numbers: The Bucs are on a 4-2 ATS run and 15-5 over-under streak. … The Giants are on a 4-2 cover streak overall, but they’re on a 1-8 spread slide at home.
Pick: Buccaneers 33, Giants 16
