NFL countdown: Sharps bet on Chiefs to go under win total
Patrick Mahomes is the clear +350 favorite at the Westgate to win his second NFL MVP award, and the Chiefs are the +450 favorites to repeat as Super Bowl champions.
This is the 32nd in a series of 32 NFL team betting previews in 32 days leading up to the league’s Sept. 10 season opener. We’ll count down the teams from the lowest season win total to the highest.
After the Kansas City signed quarterback Patrick Mahomes to the richest contract in sports history this summer, defensive tackle Chris Jones predicted that the Chiefs would win “five-plus” Super Bowl titles in the coming years and teammate Tyreek Hill forecast seven rings.
Fresh off signing his $503 million, 10-year deal, Mahomes is the clear +350 favorite at the Westgate to win his second NFL MVP award, and the Chiefs are the +450 favorites to repeat as Super Bowl champions.
Kansas City also is tied for the league’s highest season win total (11½) with the Ravens. But a sharp bettor at the Westgate wagered on the under, and so did professional handicapper Paul Stone, who bet under 12 at the South Point.
“On paper, the Chiefs are clearly the best team in the NFL and should be the clear favorite to win the Super Bowl. So I asked myself the question, ‘What could possibly go wrong?’ ” said Stone (@PaulStoneSports). “History suggests quite a bit.”
In the 54-year history of the Super Bowl, Stone noted that only seven teams have repeated as champs, with the Pittsburgh Steelers doing it twice.
“Obviously they could win more than 12 games and still not win the Super Bowl again, but I’ll take my chances,” Stone said. “They have to win 13 games for me to lose my ticket.”
Westgate vice president of risk Ed Salmons said he would take a shot on the under, too.
“I’d make them win 12 games to beat me,” he said. “Kansas City is such a machine on offense, it’s hard to bet the under. But their division is a lot tougher. There’s essentially three teams projected to win seven or eight games, and who knows if two of them will get really good this year.
“Sometimes when teams win their first Super Bowl, there can be a hangover the next year from overconfidence.”
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at firstname.lastname@example.org. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.
NFL betting preview
No. 1 Kansas City Chiefs
Odds from Westgate
2019 record: 12-4 (13-5-1 ATS)
2020 win total: 11½ (over -120, under even)
Super Bowl odds: +450
AFC West odds: -400
Odds to make playoffs: Yes -1,000, no +650