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NFL PLAYOFFS BAD BEATS BLOG: Favorites get job done

Updated January 16, 2021 - 8:34 pm

Welcome to the NFL’s divisional playoffs.

Today’s doubleheader begins with the Los Angeles Rams at the Packers, followed by the Ravens at the Bills.

We’ll be following all the action. Refresh this blog throughout the day to track bad beats, player props, movement on the live betting line, halftime bets and much more.

UPDATES

8:30 p.m.: That’s it for today. Favorites went 2-0 against the spread. The Packers covered -7 in a 32-18 win over the Rams (over 45), and the Bills covered -2½ in a 17-3 victory over the Ravens (under 49½).

Betting results for both games — full game, first half and second half — are at the bottom of this story.

Thanks for reading. We’ll be back Sunday for the other two divisional playoff games.

8:20 p.m.: Final Ravens-Bills prop grades:

General props: First score of the game won’t be a TD (+150); largest lead under 14½ points; longest TD over 42½ yards; there will be a defensive or special teams TD (+250); won’t be a successful 2-point conversion (-330); both teams won’t make a 33-yard or longer field goal (-120); won’t be a lead change in the fourth quarter (-250); a team won’t score three straight times (+160); will be a score in the final two minutes of the first half (-340); the game will be tied again after 0-0 (+100).

Bills props: Josh Allen under 25½ completions (23), under 37½ pass attempts (37), under 292½ passing yards (206), longest completion under 38½ yards (21), under 2 TD passes (-110), won’t throw an interception (-110), under 39½ rushing yards (3), won’t score a TD (-175); Stefon Diggs over 7½ receptions (8, +120), over 91½ receiving yards (106), longest reception under 24½ yards (20), will score a TD (+110).

Ravens props: Lamar Jackson under 17 completions (14), under 26 pass attempts (24), under 189½ passing yards (162), longest completion under 32½ yards (31), under 1½ TD passes (0, -140), will throw an interception (+100), under 79½ rushing yards (34), won’t score a TD (-145); J.K. Dobbins under 63½ rushing yards (42), won’t score a TD (-125); Marquise Brown under 4½ receptions (4, -130), over 52½ receiving yards (87), longest reception over 22½ yards (30); Mark Andrews under 59½ receiving yards (28).

8:17 p.m.: FINAL: Bills 17, Ravens 3. The Bills cover as 2½-point home favorites, -135 ML. The game stays way under 49½. The Bills advance to the AFC championship game and will either travel to Kansas City or host Cleveland.

8:11 p.m.: Two-minute warning. The Bills lead 17-3 and are set to punt.

8:07 p.m.: The Ravens fail on fourth-and-goal, and the Bills will look to run out the clock on a 17-3 win with 2:41 left to play.

7:58 p.m.: The miss saves the prop on largest lead under 14½ points for now.

7:57 p.m.: The Bills miss a field goal, and the Ravens’ faint hopes remain alive. The Bills lead 17-3 with 5:30 left in the fourth quarter. The Bills are -13½ (-250) on the live spread.

7:51 p.m.: Lamar Jackson has been ruled out because of a concussion.

7:50 p.m.: Ravens backup quarterback Tyler Huntley just missed Marquise Brown on what would have been a 71-yard TD pass on fourth down. Instead, the Bills take over at the Ravens 29 with 6:36 left in the fourth quarter and are cruising to victory with a 17-3 lead. The live line has been turned off.

7:45 p.m.: The Bills punt, and the Ravens have the ball at their 10, trailing 17-3 with 9:05 left in the fourth quarter. The Bills are -10,000 on the live line (Ravens +2,500).

7:35 p.m.: The Ravens are reeling. Jackson has to go to the locker room for an apparent injury, and the Ravens punt the ball back. Buffalo leads 17-3 with 14:14 left in the fourth quarter. The Bills are -5,000 on the live line (Ravens +1,500).

7:28 p.m.: Longest TD over 42½ yards also hits.

7:24 p.m.: Several props hit on the pick-six. Jackson was +100 to throw an interception. A defensive or special teams TD was +250. The Bills’ defense/special teams were 5-1 to score a TD.

7:23 p.m.: There’s the big mistake. Taron Johnson returns a Lamar Jackson interception 101 yards for a TD, and the Bills extend their lead to 17-3 with 41 seconds left in the third quarter. The Bills are -1,600 on the live line (Ravens +820), spread -10½, total 32½.

7:09 p.m.: Diggs was 8-1 to score the first TD and +110 to score at any point.

7:08 p.m.: We finally have a touchdown. Stefon Diggs catches a 3-yard TD pass, and the Bills take a 10-3 lead on the Ravens with 9:29 left in the third quarter. The Bills are -310 on the live line (Ravens +240), spread -5½, t0tal 32½.

7:01 p.m.: The second half is underway.

6:49 p.m.: Second-half line: Bills -2½, total 23½.

6:47 p.m.: HALFTIME: Bills 3, Ravens 3. First-half winners: Ravens +½, under 24. The Ravens covered the first-half spread on the field goal in the final seconds.

6:45 p.m.: Tie game. Tucker doesn’t miss a third time, hitting a 34-yard field goal with four seconds left in the second quarter.

6:36 p.m.: The puntfest continues, and the Ravens have the ball back at their 27 with 1:15 left in the second quarter. The Bills are -188 on the live line (Ravens +152), spread -3½, total 27½.

6:27 p.m.: After a Ravens punt, the Bills face third-and-3 at their 25 at the two-minute warning. The Bills are -194 on the live line (Ravens +156), spread -3½, total 28½.

6:15 p.m.: The dream start continues for under bettors. The Bills punt back to the Ravens. Buffalo leads 3-0 with 8:17 left in the second quarter. The Bills are -196 on the live line (Ravens +158), spread -3½, total 33½.

6:07 p.m.: A rare off night for Tucker, who misses his second field goal of the night, a 46-yarder. The Bills still lead 3-0 with 10:47 left in the second quarter. The Bills are -245 on the live line (Ravens +194), spread -5½, total 37½.

6 p.m.: The Bills miss a 43-yard field goal, and the score remains 3-0 Buffalo with 13:16 left in the second quarter. The Bills are -178 on the live line (Ravens +144), spread -3½, total 39½.

5:55 p.m.: END OF THE FIRST QUARTER: Bills 3, Ravens 0. First-quarter winners: Bills -½ (+115), under 9½ (+100).

5:45 p.m.: The first score won’t be a TD cashes at +150.

5:44 p.m.: The Bills score first. Tyler Bass hits a 28-yard field goal, and the Bills lead the Ravens 3-0 with 2:57 left in the first quarter. The Bills are -188 on the live line (Ravens +152), spread -3½, total 43½.

5:38 p.m.: The Ravens go three-and-out and shank the punt. The Bills have the ball at the Baltimore 38 in a scoreless game with 4:44 left in the first quarter. The Bills are -194 on the live line (Ravens +156), spread -3½, total 43½.

5:35 p.m.: The Bills punt the ball right back with 6:17 left in the first quarter. Buffalo is -144 on the live line (Ravens +118), spread -2½, total 42½.

5:25 p.m.: The Ravens’ long opening drive goes for naught when Justin Tucker misses a 41-yard field goal off the upright. The game is scoreless with 7:40 left in the first quarter. The Bills are -172 on the live line (Ravens +140), spread -3½, total 44½.

5:12 p.m.: The second game is about to kick off:

Ravens (+115) at Bills (-2½, 49½, -135), 5:15 p.m.

4:55 p.m.: Here are the props we’re tracking for Ravens-Bills:

General props: First score of the game will be a TD (yes -170); largest lead 14½ points; longest TD over/under 42½ yards; will there be a defensive or special teams TD (no -300); will there be a successful 2-point conversion (no -330); will both teams make a 33-yard or longer field goal (no -120); will there be a lead change in the fourth quarter (no -250); will either team score three straight times (yes -180); will there be a score in the final two minutes of the first half (yes -340); will the game be tied again after 0-0 (no -120).

Bills props: Josh Allen 25½ completions, 37½ pass attempts, 292½ passing yards, longest completion 38½ yards, 2 TD passes, will throw an interception (yes -110), 39½ rushing yards, will score a TD (no -175); Stefon Diggs 7½ receptions (under -140), 91½ receiving yards, longest reception 24½ yards, will score a TD (no -130).

Ravens props: Lamar Jackson 17 completions, 26 pass attempts, 189½ passing yards, longest completion 32½ yards, 1½ TD passes (under -140), will throw an interception (no -120), 79½ rushing yards, will score a TD (no -145); J.K. Dobbins 63½ rushing yards, will score a TD (no -125); Marquise Brown 4½ receptions (under -130), 52½ receiving yards, longest reception 22½ yards; Mark Andrews 59½ receiving yards.

4:40 p.m.: Final prop grades for Rams-Packers:

Team totals: Packers over 26½ (32), Rams under 19½ (18).

Alternate spreads: Packers +3½ (-550), Rams +14½ (-300).

General props: First score of the game won’t be a TD (+150); largest lead over 14½ points (15, -130); longest TD over 37½ yards (58); won’t be a defensive or special teams TD (-300); will be a successful 2-point conversion (+290); both teams will make a 33-yard or longer field goal (+130); won’t be a lead change in the fourth quarter (-310); a team won’t score three straight times (+175); will be a score in the final two minutes of the first half (-310); the game will be tied again after 0-0 (+120).

Packers props: Aaron Rodgers under 24½ completions (23), over 34½ attempts (36), over 259½ passing yards (296), longest completion over 37½ yards (58), pushes on 2 TD passes, won’t throw an interception (-210), under 12½ rushing yards (-3); Aaron Jones over 70½ rushing yards (99), under 24½ receiving yards (14), will score a TD (-120); Davante Adams over 6½ receptions (9, -130), under 73½ receiving yards (66), longest reception under 22½ yards (21), will score a TD (-140); Allen Lazard over 38½ receiving yards (96); Robert Tonyan over 33½ receiving yards (60).

Rams props: Jared Goff over 19½ completions (21), under 33½ attempts (27), under 211½ passing yards (174), under 1½ TD passes (1, -185), won’t throw an interception (+135); Cam Akers over 77½ rushing yards (90); Robert Woods over 5½ receptions (8, +120), under 59½ receiving yards (48).

4:32 p.m.: FINAL: Packers 32, Rams 18. The Packers cover as 7-point home favorites, -350 ML. The game goes over 45. Other than a couple of moments in the second half, the Packers were in control throughout. Green Bay will host the winner of Sunday’s game between the Buccaneers and Saints next week in the NFC championship game.

4:26 p.m.: Two-minute warning. Packers lead 32-18 and have first-and-goal at the 9.

4:20 p.m.: The Packers stop the Rams on fourth down, and that should just about do it. The Packers lead 32-18 with 4:59 left in the fourth quarter. The live line has been turned off.

4:16 p.m.: Lazard was +360 to score a TD. He is over his receiving yards prop of 38½ with 96 so far. Longest TD over 37½ yards cashes. Rodgers is pushing his prop of 2 TD passes and is over his passing yards prop of 259½ with 276.

4:14 p.m.: Over backers are smiling — and Packer backers, too. Allen Lazard catches a 58-yard TD pass, and the Packers extend their lead to 32-18 with 6:52 left in the fourth quarter. That score clinches the win for over 45 bettors. The Packers are -8,000 on the live line (Rams +1,800).

4:05 p.m.: The Rams pick up a couple of first downs but have to punt. The Packers have the ball back at their 27, leading 25-18 with 9:46 left in the fourth quarter. The Packers are -1,300 on the live line (Rams +730).

3:56 p.m.: The Rams have their chance now. They force another punt and have the ball at their 6, trailing the Packers 25-18 with 13:17 left in the fourth quarter. The Packers are -900 on the live line (Rams +570).

3:50 p.m.: END OF THE THIRD QUARTER: Packers 25, Rams 18. The Packers have the ball at their 46, trying to stay a step ahead of the Rams. The Packers are -1,250 on the live line (Rams +710), spread -7½, total 55½.

3:44 p.m.: Akers was -105 to score a TD. He has also gone over his rushing yards prop of 77½ with 82 so far.

3:43 p.m.: The Rams aren’t going away. Cam Akers scores on a 7-yard TD run, and the Rams cut the Packers’ lead to 25-18 with 1:41 left in the third quarter (2-point try good). The Packers are -800 on the live line (Rams +520).

3:31 p.m.: The Rams finally get a stop, helped by a drop by Packers receiver Allen Lazard on what would have been a long completion. The Packers still lead 25-10 with 7:26 left in the third quarter. The Packers are -4,500 on the live line (Rams +1,300), spread -15½, total 50½.

3:23 p.m.: The Rams have to punt on their opening drive, and if they don’t get a stop on defense, this one might be just about over. Green Bay leads 25-10 with 10:31 left in the third quarter. The Packers are -5,000 on the live line (Rams +1,500), spread -16½, total 52½.

3:17 p.m.: Jones was -120 to score a TD. He has also cashed his rushing yards prop of 70½ with 85 so far after a 60-yarder to open the last drive.

3:15 p.m.: The Rams’ defense just can’t get a stop. Aaron Jones scores on a 1-yard run, and the Packers extend their lead to 25-10 over the Rams with 12:10 left in the third quarter (2-point try failed). The Packers are -3,500 on the live line (Rams +1,200), spread -15½, total 54½.

2:57 p.m.: Second-half line: Packers -3, total 23.

2:55 p.m.: HALFTIME: Packers 19, Rams 10. First-half winners: Packers -4 (-120), over 22½. Mason Crosby kicked a 39-yard field goal on the final play. The Packers are -900 on the live line (Rams +570), spread -11½, total 51½

2:49 p.m.: Jefferson was 5-1 to score a TD. There will be a score in the final two minutes of the first half cashes at -310.

2:48 p.m.: The Rams get a critical score right before halftime. Van Jefferson catches a 4-yard TD pass, and the Rams cut the Packers’ lead to 16-10 with 29 seconds left in the second quarter. The Packers are -750 on the live line (Rams +490), spread -9½, total 48½.

2:41 p.m.: Two-minute warning. The Rams have the ball at their 45, trying to get a score before halftime. A prop will be decided: Will there be a score in the last two minutes of the first half? Yes is -310; no +260.

2:38 p.m.: Rodgers was +470 to score a TD.

2:35 p.m.: The Rams are in trouble. Aaron Rodgers scrambles in for a 1-yard TD, and the Packers extend their lead to 16-3 with 3:29 left in the second quarter (extra point failed). The Packers are -2,200 on the live line (Rams +980), spread -16½, total 43½.

2:16 p.m.: Adams was +450 to score the first TD and -140 to score at any point.

2:15 p.m.: The Packers find the end zone. Davante Adams catches a 1-yard TD pass, and the Packers take a 10-3 lead on the Rams with 11:37 left in the second quarter. The Packers are -650 on the live line (Rams +440), spread -10½, total 44½.

2:07 p.m.: END OF THE FIRST QUARTER: Packers 3, Rams 3. First-quarter winners: Rams +½ (+110), under 9½.

1:58 p.m.: The Rams kick a field goal to tie the game at 3 with 4:36 left in the first quarter. The Packers are -350 on the live line (Rams +265), spread -6½, total 43½.

1:47 p.m.: First score won’t be a TD cashes at +150.

1:46 p.m.: The Packers force a three-and-out and mount a long drive, but have to settle for a short field goal. Green Bay leads the Rams 3-0 with 8:39 left in the first quarter. The Packers are -420 on the live line (Rams +310), spread -8½, total 43½.

1:33 p.m.: The first game is about to kick off:

Rams (+290) at Packers (-7, 45, -350), 1:35 p.m.

1:20 p.m.: Here are the props we’re tracking for Rams-Packers:

General props: First score of the game will be a TD (yes -170); largest lead 14½ points (over -130); longest TD over/under 37½ yards; will there be a defensive or special teams TD (no -300); will there be a successful 2-point conversion (no -350); will both teams make a 33-yard or longer field goal (no -150); will there be a lead change in the fourth quarter (no -310); will either team score three straight times (yes -200); will there be a score in the final two minutes of the first half (yes -310); will the game be tied again after 0-0 (no -140).

Packers props: Aaron Rodgers 24½ completions, 34½ attempts, 259½ passing yards, longest completion 37½ yards, 2 TD passes (over -120), will throw an interception (no -210), 12½ rushing yards; Aaron Jones 70½ rushing yards, 24½ receiving yards, will score a TD (yes -120); Davante Adams 6½ receptions (over -130), 73½ receiving yards, longest reception 22½ yards, will score a TD (yes -140); Allen Lazard 38½ receiving yards; Robert Tonyan 33½ receiving yards.

Rams props: Jared Goff 19½ completions, 33½ attempts, 211½ passing yards, 1½ TD passes (under -185), will throw an interception (yes -155); Cam Akers 77½ rushing yards; Robert Woods 5½ receptions (under -140), 59½ receiving yards.

1:15 p.m.: The day opens with the top-seeded Green Bay Packers hosting the No. 6 Los Angeles Rams. The Packers come off a bye, the only NFC to do so under the new playoff format. (The same applies to the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC).

The Rams scored a 30-20 upset of the No. 3 seed Seahawks in Seattle last week to advance. Starting quarterback Jared Goff was in a backup role after thumb surgery but was forced into action when John Wolford was injured early in the game. Goff ended up doing enough to pull on the victory, backed by a tremendous defensive performance by the Rams. Goff will start today.

Sharp bettors appear to be siding with the Rams against the Packers. The line opened Green Bay -7 and was bet down to -6½ despite heavy public action on the Packers. The line has climbed back to 7 today.

TODAY’S SCHEDULE

— Packers 32, Rams 18 (at Green Bay)

Full-game winners: Packers -7, over 45, Packers -350 ML

First-half winners: Packers -4 (-120), over 22½ (Packers 19-10)

Second-half winners: Packers -3, under 23 (Packers 13-8)

— Bills 17, Ravens 3 (at Buffalo)

Full-game winners: Bills -2½, under 49½, Bills -135 ML

First-half winners: Ravens +½, under 24 (tied 3-3)

Second-half winners: Bills -2½, under 23½ (Bills 14-0)

Contact Jim Barnes at jbarnes@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0277. Follow @JimBarnesLV on Twitter.

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