NFL Week 10 betting breakdown: Predictions for every game
NFL BETTING BREAKDOWN
Doug Fitz, @fitz_doug, Systemplays.com
Falcons (3-5) vs. Colts (7-2)
Time: 6:30 a.m., NFLN
Line/total: Colts -6½, 48½
Analysis: This number is a little too high for a neutral site game in Berlin. The Falcons have lost three games in a row but were competitive last week, losing 24-23 at New England. The Colts were manhandled in Pittsburgh last week and committed six turnovers in a 27-20 loss. Atlanta coach Raheem Morris is 14-9 against the spread in road nondivision games, including 9-1 ATS in his past 10 games when his team has a losing record.
Pick: Falcons 24, Colts 21
Browns (2-6) at Jets (1-7)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Browns -2, 38
Analysis: This game saw the Jets flip from 2½-point favorites to 2½-point underdogs after New York’s fire sale in which it traded arguably its two best defensive players in cornerback Sauce Gardner and defensive tackle Quinnen Williams. Both teams are terrible, and it’s anyone’s guess who wins. The under looks like the play with the Browns’ superior defense.
Pick: Jets 20, Browns 14
Saints (1-8) at Panthers (5-4)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Panthers -5½, 39½
Analysis: I hate recommending Carolina after its surprise upset win at Green Bay. That plays into a classic letdown spot, but the Panthers are playing good football and no longer deserve to be considered the doormat of the NFC South. The Saints are the new doormat of the NFC South, and their offense in particular is pathetic. The Panthers could be in a possible letdown spot, so this is a cautious lean toward Carolina.
Pick: Panthers 28, Saints 14
Bills (6-2) at Dolphins (2-7)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Bills -9½, 50
Analysis: This is an obvious mismatch, but it’s an AFC East game and it’s dangerous to bet against division home underdogs. Buffalo is coming off an emotional win over the Chiefs. Now it is playing the lowly Dolphins, which sets up the Bills for a perfect letdown. A Miami win could somewhat salvage a horrible season, and the Dolphins will be motivated. This game will be closer than most people expect.
Pick: Bills 30, Dolphins 24
Jaguars (5-3) at Texans (3-5)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Jaguars -1, 37½
Analysis: Texans starting quarterback C.J. Stroud is out, leaving backup Davis Mills as their starter. That’s bad news for Houston is Mills looked lost and confused in last week’s 18-15 loss to the Broncos. The Jaguars are on a 4-0 ATS run in the second game of back-to-back road games.
Pick: Jaguars 24, Texans 20
Ravens (3-5) at Vikings (4-4)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Ravens -4, 49
Analysis: The Vikings are coming off a road win over the Lions as 9½-point underdogs. The Ravens are playing at a high level now that quarterback Lamar Jackson is back. Minnesota second-year quarterback J.J. McCarthy looked good in last week’s upset of Detroit, and he needed that confidence booster after coming off his extended injury absence. Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell is 5-1 straight up and 6-0 ATS coming off an outright win as an underdog.
Pick: Vikings 27, Ravens 24
Patriots (7-2) at Buccaneers (6-2)
Time: 10 a.m., CBS
Line/total: Buccaneers -2½, 47½
Analysis: New England quarterback Drake Maye has thrown 17 touchdown passes with only four interceptions, but he’s been sacked 34 times. The Buccaneers are usually an excellent pressure defense, so Maye better learn to release the ball quicker. Tampa Bay should cover the short number at home, but this is a weak lean.
Pick: Buccaneers 24, Patriots 20
Giants (2-7) at Bears (5-3)
Time: 10 a.m., Fox
Line/total: Bears -4½, 46½
Analysis: The Giants can’t seem to avoid mediocrity, and this season is no exception. The Bears are much improved under first-year coach Ben Johnson. They have a legitimate shot of winning the NFC North, where they’re tied with the Lions for second place behind the division-leading Packers (5-2-1). Chicago is on an 8-1-2 ATS run in nondivision home games.
Pick: Bears 31, Giants 23
Cardinals (3-5) at Seahawks (6-2)
Time: 1:05 p.m.
Line/total: Seahawks -6½, 45
Analysis: Arizona quarterback Jacoby Brissett might take over the starting spot even when Kyler Murray is healthy. Brissett’s numbers were impressive in the Cardinals’ 27-17 win over the Cowboys on “Monday Night Football.” He completed 21 of 31 passes for 261 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions for a 115.1 passer rating. As good as Seattle has played this season, it is 5-8 straight up and 4-8-1 ATS at home under coach Mike Macdonald. Seattle also is 3-10 straight up and 1-12 ATS in its past 13 games coming off consecutive wins against opponents coming off a win.
Pick: Cardinals 28, Seahawks 26
Lions (5-3) at Commanders (3-6)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/total: Lions -8, 49
Analysis: The Lions are coming off a rare home loss in a 27-24 defeat to the Vikings. Washington will probably depend on quarterback Marcus Mariota for the rest of the season after Jayden Daniels’ gruesome elbow injury in Sunday’s 38-14 home loss to the Seahawks. Detroit has revenge on its minds after its 45-31 upset loss to the Commanders in their wild-card playoff game last season, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Lions run up the score. Detroit is on an 8-1 ATS run as a nondivision road favorite, and Lions coach Dan Campbell is 7-1 ATS after a straight-up loss as a favorite. This sets up to be a rout.
Pick: Lions 38, Commanders 17
Rams (6-2) at 49ers (6-3)
Time: 1:25 p.m., Fox
Line/total: Rams -4½, 49½
Analysis: Hard to believe, but San Francisco backup quarterback Mac Jones is 5-2 since replacing injured starting quarterback Brock Purdy. This number is a little too rich for a divisional home underdog that is playing well. The 49ers are 6-4 straight up and 8-2 ATS in their past 10 games as division home underdogs when they have a 37.5 percent or greater win percentage, including 5-0 ATS against opponents like the Rams, who have a 70 percent or greater win percentage.
Pick: 49ers 24, Rams 21
Steelers (5-3) at Chargers (6-3)
Time: 5:20 p.m., NBC
Line/total: Chargers -2½, 44½
Analysis: The Chargers are on a 3-15 ATS slide as nondivision home favorites of five or fewer points. Los Angeles also is on a 2-12 spread slide at home against AFC North teams. Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert has been sacked 28 times this season, and Los Angeles lost All-Pro left tackle Joe Alt to a season-ending ankle injury last week. Steelers edge rusher T.J. Watt and company could have a field day in the Chargers’ backfield.
Pick: Steelers 24, Chargers 21
Eagles (6-2) at Packers (5-2-1)
Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, ABC, ESPN
Line/total: Packers -2½, 46
Analysis: The Eagles are 7-1 ATS in their past eight games as nondivision road underdogs. Another interesting stat, albeit more informational than actionable, is defending Super Bowl champions are 66-50-5 ATS (57 percent) since 1980 when they’re underdogs.
Pick: Eagles 27, Packers 24
