NFL Week 12 betting breakdown

Doug Fitz, Systemplays.com

Browns (0-10) at Bengals (4-6)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Bengals -8, 38

Analysis: Everyone reading this has to know the Browns are 2-8 against the spread and they fail to cover in the most agonizing ways. I couldn’t recommend the Browns under any circumstances, including this game. The spread on the Bengals is too high, but any team playing the Browns will be overvalued for good reason.

By the numbers: Browns coach Hue Jackson is 0-8 ATS as a underdog of more than six points during the second half of the season. … Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton is 7-1 straight up and 6-1-1 ATS against the Browns when Cleveland is coming off a loss. … The Browns are on a 3-13-1 ATS slide on the road. … The under is 13-5 in Cincinnati’s last 18 games.

Pick: Bengals, 23-10

Bears (3-7) at Eagles (9-1)

Time: 10 a.m., KVVU-5

Line/Total: Eagles -14, 44

Analysis: This is a huge number, and I never will recommend laying double digits in the NFL under any situation. The Bears have shown themselves to be a pretty good home team but awful on the road.

By the numbers: Chicago is 1-3 straight up and ATS on the road. … The Eagles are 5-0 straight up and 4-1 ATS at home. … Bears coach John Fox is 14-7 ATS as a road underdog following a division game. … Chicago is on a 7-2-1 ATS uptick vs. a team with a winning record. … The underdog is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings.

Pick: Eagles, 28-17

Dolphins (4-6) at Patriots (8-2)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Patriots -16½, 48

Analysis: Miami quarterback Jay Cutler is out, but there’s not much of a drop-off to his replacement, Matt Moore. These teams are in different stratospheres, but the highest spread all season keeps me from making a recommendation.

By the numbers: The Patriots are 6-4 ATS and the Dolphins are 3-5-2 ATS. … The Dolphins rank 28th of 32 NFL teams in rushing, averaging 80.4 yards per game. … Miami has a turnover differential of minus-9 compared with the Patriots’ plus-8. … New England is 15-6-2 ATS in its last 23 home games and 22-7 in its last 29 games overall. … The home team is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

Pick: Patriots, 34-10

Bills (5-5) at Chiefs (6-4)

Time: 10 a.m., KLAS-8

Line/Total: Chiefs -9½, 46½

Analysis: You have to wonder about the competence of Bills coach Sean McDermott after benching Tyrod Taylor last week for a rookie making his first start on the road. The result was predictable, with Nathan Peterman throwing five interceptions in the first half. Taylor starts this time, but the Chiefs are having their own problems, dropping four of their past five games straight up and ATS. The number is way too high for a team playing as badly as the Chiefs.

By the numbers: Buffalo has lost three in a row straight up and ATS. … The under is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings, 18-7-1 in Kansas City’s last 26 games in November and 40-19 in the Chiefs’ last 59 home games. … The road team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.

Pick: Chiefs, 20-13

Buccaneers (4-6) at Falcons (6-4)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Falcons -10, 47½

Analysis: This game is yet another example of the number being too high based on public perception, especially for a division matchup. Both teams have won and covered their last two games, but Atlanta is 2-2 ATS at home and was favored in all four. The Falcons could be in a letdown spot after their Monday night win in Seattle.

By the numbers: Division favorites are 4-16-1 ATS, including 1-11 ATS against losing teams, after facing Seattle under Pete Carroll. … The favorite is 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings. … The over is 12-3 in Atlanta’s last 15 home games and 15-5-1 in the Falcons’ last 21 games vs. the NFC. … Tampa Bay is on a 2-6-1 ATS slide overall.

Pick: Falcons, 28-27

Panthers (7-3) at Jets (4-6)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Panthers -5½, 40

Analysis: This is a contrarian play, as most of the trends and recent performance stats favor Carolina. But I have a strong system that shows the Jets to be the play, so I’ll stick with them in a close game.

By the numbers: The Panthers have held all five opponents on the road to a season low in yards. … The Jets are plus-1 in turnover margin to Carolina’s minus-7. … New York is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight games. … The under is 7-3 in the Panthers’ last 10 games as a favorite. … The over is 20-6-1 in Carolina’s last 27 games on field turf.

Pick: Panthers, 20-17

Titans (6-4) at Colts (3-7)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Titans -3½, 45½

Analysis: The key to this game is that Colts quarterback Jacoby Brissett is expected to play. This is a division revenge spot for Indianapolis, which lost 36-22 to the Titans in Week 6. I’ll call for a minor upset.

By the numbers: The Titans are 1-4 ATS on the road. … The Colts are 4-1 ATS at home. … The Titans have not won at Indianapolis since 2007, losing their last nine meetings there. The Colts are 7-1-1 ATS in those games. … The favorite is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. … Tennessee is 2-10 ATS in the last 12 meetings. … The Titans are on an 11-38-4 ATS slide vs. the AFC. … The under is 8-2 in Indianapolis’ last 10 home games.

Pick: Colts, 20-10

Seahawks (6-4) at 49ers (1-9)

Time: 1:05 p.m.

Line/Total: Seahawks -6½, 45

Analysis: Let’s hope Seattle coach Pete Carroll has gotten over his “I’m smarter than everyone else” ideas after his inexplicable fake field goal right before the half in Monday night’s loss to Atlanta. That bonehead call might have cost the Seahawks the game. Seattle should get back to normal business after all the justified criticism for that call, and they should show effort and a sense of urgency.

By the numbers: Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson is 12-4-1 ATS against division foes coming off a straight up and ATS win, including 6-1-1 straight up and ATS on the road. … The 49ers are on a 4-12-1 ATS slide vs. a team with a winning record. … San Francisco is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 home games. …Seattle is 9-2-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings.

Pick: Seahawks, 27-10

Saints (8-2) at Rams (7-3)

Time: 1:25 p.m.

Line/Total: Rams -2, 53½

Analysis: The Rams are a false favorite. The Saints are better in every offensive category, and their 1-2 rushing tandem of Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara is the best in the league. Quarterback Drew Brees is as good as he’s ever been, but New Orleans no longer depends strictly on his arm to win games. The Saints are balanced with an excellent offense and a defense that gives up only 19.6 points per game.

By the numbers: New Orleans is 4-1 ATS on the road. … The Saints are third in the league in rushing with 144 yards per game and are tied for first in rushing yards per attempt (4.8). … Brees is fourth in the league in passing yards per game with 278. … The Rams have the edge in turnover margin as plus-6 compared with the Saints’ plus-2. … New Orleans is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 road games and is 20-8 ATS in its past 28 games overall. … Los Angeles is 3-11-1 ATS in its last 15 games vs. the NFC. … The over is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings.

Pick: Saints, 35-23

Jaguars (7-3) at Cardinals (4-6)

Time: 1:25 p.m.

Line/Total: Jaguars -5, 38

Analysis: The Jaguars are playing good football, but they’re overrated and Blake Bortles is still not a capable quarterback. He’s been bailed out more often than not by their excellent defense.

By the numbers: Jacksonville is 2-15 straight up and ATS against NFC opponents since 2013. … Arizona coach Bruce Arians is 11-0 ATS against teams coming off a straight up and ATS win in the second half of the season. … The under is 7-2 in the Cardinals’ last nine games and 13-3 in its last 16 home games.

Pick: Cardinals, 20-17

Broncos (3-7) at Raiders (4-6)

Time: 1:25 p.m., KLAS-8

Line/Total: Raiders -4½, 43

Analysis: As bad as the Raiders have played, they don’t deserve to be favored over anyone, especially by more than a field goal over a division rival. Denver quarterback Paxton Lynch gets the start. The Broncos will simplify their offensive scheme accordingly. He can’t possibly do any worse than Trevor Siemian and Brock Osweiler.

By the numbers: Denver still has the league’s No. 3 defense, but that’s been negated by its minus-16 turnover margin. … Oakland has a minus-9 turnover margin. … The Raiders average only 89.7 rushing yards, and the Broncos allow only 85.5 rushing yards per game. … The favorite is 9-1-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. … Denver is 9-2-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings. … The over is 21-7-1 in Oakland’s last 29 home games and 18-5-3 in its last 26 games in November. … The Raiders are on a 1-6-1 ATS skid overall.

Pick: Broncos, 23-17

Packers (5-5) at Steelers (8-2)

Time: 5:30 p.m., KSNV-3

Line/Total: Steelers -14, 43

Analysis: Green Bay quarterback Brett Hundley has been terrible. The Packers’ season is essentially finished, and they know it, so any meaningful motivation on their part is questionable. The line is too high to recommend a play, and the better option would be for the total to go over, as Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers’ offense should be on the field for the majority of the game.

By the numbers: Since Aaron Rodgers went down, the Packers are 1-4 straight up and ATS. … The Steelers are 3-1 straight up and ATS at home. … The over is 7-1 in Green Bay’s last eight road games and 7-2 in its last nine games as an underdog.

Pick: Steelers, 35-13

Texans (4-6) at Ravens (5-5)

Time: 5:30 p.m., ESPN

Line/Total: Ravens -7, 38

Analysis: Houston quarterback Tom Savage finally had a decent game last week in a home win over Arizona. I’ll look for Savage to revert back to his losing ways, as the Texans are on the road against the improved Ravens, who have won two of their last three games by shutouts.

By the numbers: Baltimore quarterback Joe Flacco is 6-0 straight up and ATS in Monday night games after a spread win of at least 20 points. Flacco is also 12-1 straight up in home prime-time games. … The Ravens have won nine consecutive prime-time games and 11 of 12. … The Texans are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 Monday games.

Pick: Ravens, 27-7

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