NFL Week 3 betting breakdown

Doug Fitz, Systemplays.com

Baltimore (2-0) vs. Jacksonville (1-1)

Time: 6:30 a.m.

Line/Total: Ravens -3½, 39½

Doug Fitz’s analysis: The Ravens are as good as their record and performances indicate. The Jaguars are the same old Jaguars despite their impressive Week 1 win at Houston. Blake Bortles continues to be one of the most underperforming quarterbacks in the league. I doubt Jacksonville will be able to put up any meaningful offense against a very good Ravens defense that has forced 10 turnovers and allowed only 10 points.

By the numbers: The Ravens are 6-1 ATS in Week 3 away from home. … Baltimore coach John Harbaugh is 15-5 ATS in September after a spread win of at least three points. … Underdogs of at least four points are 0-6 straight up and 1-5 against the spread all time in London games.

Pick: Ravens, 23-13

Cleveland (0-2) at Indianapolis (0-2)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Browns -1½, 42½

Doug Fitz’s analysis: The Browns and favorite never should be uttered in the same sentence. The last time the Browns were favored on the road was 2014 at Jacksonville, and they lost 24-6. I know the Colts are a mess without quarterback Andrew Luck, but they should have enough to win as a home underdog.

By the numbers: The Browns are 1-19 straight up over their past 20 road games and 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 games overall. … The Colts are 25-8 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

Pick: Colts, 20-10

Pittsburgh (2-0) at Chicago (0-2)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Steelers -7½, 44

Doug Fitz’s analysis: Sometimes just going with the vastly superior team is the right way to go. I don’t expect the Bears to be able to score against the great Steelers defense. Chicago was in a great spot at home in Week 1 against the high-powered Atlanta offense on natural grass, but they showed their true colors last week getting demolished at Tampa Bay.

By the numbers: The Bears are 2-13 straight up and 5-10 ATS as home underdogs vs opponents with a .500 record or better. … The under is 20-7 in Pittsburgh’s last 27 road games.

Pick: Steelers, 28-7

Miami (1-0) at New York Jets (0-2)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Dolphins -6, 43

Doug Fitz’s analysis: The Dolphins returned home for the first time since Hurricane Irma. That could be a big distraction having to turn around and travel again. I’m fully aware the Jets are about as bad as a team can be, but this is too big a number to lay on the road against a division rival.

By the numbers: Miami is 2-5 straight up and ATS in division games after an away game. … The Jets are 14-5 straight up and 16-2-1 ATS after consecutive road games. … The road team is 14-6-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings between the teams.

Pick: Jets, 16-13

Denver (2-0) at Buffalo (1-1)

Time/TV: 10 a.m., KLAS

Line/Total: Broncos -3, 39

Doug Fitz’s analysis: Denver could be in for a big letdown in its first road game after its huge home win over the Cowboys. It’s a bad spot for Denver that they won’t overcome. The Bills will pull off an outright upset.

By the numbers: The Bills average an impressive 129.5 yards rushing and have one of the top rushing defenses, allowing only 57.5 yards. … The under is 16-7-1 in Denver’s last 24 games as a favorite. … The over is 8-1 in Buffalo’s last nine home games.

Pick: Bills, 21-10

Houston (1-1) at New England (1-1)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Patriots -14, 44

Doug Fitz’s analysis: This number has predictably gone up, as the Patriots are probably the most public team in pro sports. One hard and fast rule I have is to never back double-digit NFL favorites. I would pass on this game, but for the purposes of this article, I’ll take the large number on Houston.

By the numbers: The Texans have a big edge in every defensive category, especially passing yards allowed, where Houston has given up an average of 169 and New England 350. … The home team is 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine meetings. … Houston is 1-6-1 ATS in the last eight meetings and 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games overall.

Pick: Patriots, 28-21

New Orleans (0-2) at Carolina (2-0)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Panthers -5½, 46

Doug Fitz’s analysis: I can’t back a team such as the Saints, who have managed to rush for only 70.5 yards with a defense that gives up an astounding 388.5 yards passing. Carolina has struggled on offense, but its defense is light years better than the Saints’. The Panthers can tee off on New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees, who’s already at a disadvantage playing on natural grass.

By the numbers: Carolina is 18-9 ATS on grass over the last three seasons. … The under is 11-3 in the last 14 meetings in Carolina. … The road team is 22-9 ATS in the last 31 meetings.

Pick: Panthers, 24-16

Tampa Bay (1-0) at Minnesota (1-1)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Buccaneers -2½, 39

Doug Fitz’s analysis: With Vikings quarterback Sam Bradford out, it becomes impossible to figure this one out. Bradford’s replacement, Case Keenum, looked poor last week and is just not an NFL-caliber quarterback. I’ll give a lukewarm recommendation to the short underdog, but it’s not a game I’ll play.

By the numbers: The Vikings are 14-3 ATS at home vs nondivision opponents under coach Mike Zimmer. … Minnesota is 23-7 ATS in its last 30 home games. … The Buccaneers are 5-1 ATS as underdogs after a win and 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall. … The under is 6-1-1 in Tampa Bay’s last eight games.

Pick: Buccaneers, 17-13

Atlanta (2-0) at Detroit (2-0)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Falcons -3, 51

Doug Fitz’s analysis: This is my favorite game of the NFL weekend, and all signs point to a Lions victory. A successful yards-per-point system I developed several years ago gives a big edge to the Lions. The Falcons are in a letdown situation after their dominating home win over Green Bay and the regular season-opening of their new stadium. I also recommend a play on the Lions on the money line (+140).

By the numbers: Defending straight Super Bowl losers are 27-47-5 ATS as road favorites in nondivision games. … Lions coach Jim Caldwell is 9-4 straight up and ATS in September against nondivision opponents. … The over is 17-3-1 in Atlanta’s last 21 games. … The under is 10-3 in Detroit’s last 13 games.

Pick: Lions, 37-16

New York Giants (0-2) at Philadelphia (1-1)

Time/TV: 10 a.m., KVVU

Line/Total: Eagles -6, 42½

Doug Fitz’s analysis: Anyone with a pulse knows the Giants have looked as bad as any team can possibly look. But this is a division game, and I’m willing to give New York one more chance at redemption. This number is too high.

By the numbers: The Giants are 9-1-1 ATS on the road after a Monday night game, including 5-0 straight up and ATS in division games. … The Eagles are 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games. … The under is 9-2 in New York’s last 11 games.

Pick: Giants, 23-20

Seattle (1-1) at Tennessee (1-1)

Time: 1:05 p.m.

Line/Total: Titans -2½, 41

Doug Fitz’s analysis: Hard to believe the Seahawks have looked so bad and scored only one touchdown. That changes this week. Titans running back DeMarco Murray is questionable, and Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson is too good for Seattle’s offensive woes to continue.

By the numbers: Seattle coach Pete Carroll is 13-2-2 ATS in his last 17 games as an underdog off a win. … Wilson is 13-3-1 ATS as an underdog, including 9-1-1 ATS after a win. … Tennessee is 7-22-2 in its last 31 home games and 15-37-3 ATS in its last 55 games overall.

Pick: Seahawks, 26-14

Kansas City (2-0) at Los Angeles Chargers (0-2)

Time: 1:25 p.m.

Line/Total: Chiefs -3, 47½

Doug Fitz’s analysis: Tough game to call. The Chiefs are obviously the superior team, but that alone usually doesn’t equate to winning bets in the NFL. The Chargers can hang around the number primarily because of quarterback Philip Rivers’ 254 yards passing average against the Eric Berry-less Kansas City defense.

By the numbers: The Chargers have lost eight of 10 games decided by three points or fewer the last three seasons. … Los Angeles is 5-17 ATS in its last 22 home games.

Pick: Chiefs, 21-20

Cincinnati (0-2) at Green Bay (2-0)

Time/TV: 1:25 p.m., KLAS

Line/Total: Packers -7½, 46½

Doug Fitz’s analysis: The Bengals are the only team left without a touchdown. They’re in a terrible spot facing Green Bay at home coming off an embarrassing prime-time loss to Atlanta. The number is a bit high, and I really don’t like the game, but I’ll side with the Bengals.

By the numbers: Bengals coach Marvin Lewis is 17-3-2 ATS in his career as an underdog against NFC opponents, including 10-0-1 ATS when his team has a winning percentage of less than .400. … The over is 8-1 in Green Bay’s last nine games. … The under is 21-8 in the Bengals’ last 29 games.

Pick: Packers, 35-28

Oakland (2-0) at Washington (1-1)

Time/TV: 5:30 p.m., KSNV

Line/Total: Raiders -3, 55

Doug Fitz’s analysis: This is another game with an inflated number knowing the majority of bets will be on the Raiders. I’m not buying it. Oakland isn’t that much better than the Redskins getting a field goal at home.

By the numbers: The Raiders are 1-8 straight up and 3-6 ATS vs NFC East opponents, including 0-3 straight up and ATS after a win. … The Redskins are 4-1 ATS at home between away games. … Oakland is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 road games. … The over is 20-7 in Washington’s last 27 games.

Pick: Redskins, 31-20

Dallas (1-1) at Arizona (1-1)

Time/TV: 5:30 p.m. Monday, ESPN

Line/Total: Cowboys -3, 46½

Doug Fitz’s analysis: Another value play in support of the home underdog against the public favorite. Arizona is in a must-win situation. The Cardinals will be fired up for this prime-time game and win straight up.

By the numbers: Dallas is 0-3 straight up and ATS in its last three games in Arizona, losing all three as favorites. … The Cowboys are 3-9 ATS in their past 12 Monday night games. … Arizona is 12-3 straight up and 14-1 ATS in its past 15 games against NFC East opponents.

Pick: Cardinals, 28-23

More betting: Follow all of our sports betting coverage online at reviewjournal.com/betting and @RJ_Sports on Twitter.

ad-high_impact_4
Sports Betting Spotlight Videos
Sports Betting Spotlight: NFL conference championships
Review-Journal sports betting columnist Todd Dewey, handicapper Kelly Stewart and CG Technology sports book vice president Matt Holt preview the NFL’s conference championship games.
Sports Betting Spotlight: NFL divisional playoffs
Review-Journal sports betting columnist Todd Dewey, handicapper Kelly Stewart and CG Technology sports book vice president Matt Holt preview the NFL divisional playoffs.
Sports Betting Spotlight: College Football National Championship
Review-Journal sports betting columnist Todd Dewey, handicapper Kelly Stewart and CG Technology sports book vice president Matt Holt preview Monday’s college football national championship.
Sports Betting Spotlight: NFL Wild Card playoffs
Review-Journal sports betting columnist Todd Dewey, handicapper Kelly Stewart and CG Technology sports book vice president Matt Holt preview the NFL’s Wild Card playoff weekend.
Sports Betting Spotlight: NFL Week 17
Todd Dewey, Kelly Stewart and Matt Holt go over their picks for week 17 of the NFL.
Sports Betting Spotlight: College Bowls Week Three
Todd Dewey, Kelly Stewart and Matt Holt go over their picks for week three of the college bowl games.
Sports Betting Spotlight: College Bowls Week 2
Review-Journal reporter Todd Dewey, handicapper Bernie Fratto and The Mirage sports book director Jeff Stoneback preview the college football bowls.
Sports Betting Spotlight: NFL Week 16
Review-Journal reporter Todd Dewey, handicapper Bernie Fratto and The Mirage sports book director Jeff Stoneback preview Week 16 of the NFL season.
Sports Betting Spotlight: College Football Bowl Edition
Todd Dewey, Kelly Stewart and Las Vegas Wynn Sports Book Director Johnny Avello go over their picks for the college bowl games.
Sports Betting Spotlight: NFL Week 15
Todd Dewey, Kelly Stewart and Las Vegas Wynn Sports Book Director Johnny Avello go over their picks for week 15 of NFL football.
Sports Betting Spotlight: NFL Week 14
Review-Journal reporter Todd Dewey, handicapper Kelly Stewart and TI sports book director Tony Nevill preview NFL Week 14.
Sports Betting Spotlight: NFL Week 13
Review-Journal reporter Todd Dewey, handicapper Kelly Stewart and The Mirage sports book director Jeff Stoneback preview Week 13 of the NFL regular season. (Las Vegas Review-Journal)
Sports Betting Spotlight: College football Week 14
Review-Journal reporter Todd Dewey, handicapper Kelly Stewart and The Mirage sports book director Jeff Stoneback preview Week 14 of the college football season. (Las Vegas Review-Journal)
Sports Betting Spotlight: College Week 13
Todd Dewey, Kelly Stewart and Matt Holt give their picks for week 13 of college football.
Sports Betting Spotlight: NFL Week 12
Todd Dewey, Kelly Stewart and Matt Holt give their picks for week 12 of NFL football.
Sports Betting Spotlight: College football Week 12
Todd Dewey, Kelly Stewart and Bob Scucci go over their picks for college football week 12.
Sports Betting Spotlight: NFL Week 11
Todd Dewey, Kelly Stewart and Bob Scucci go over their picks for NFL football week 11.
Sports Betting Spotlight: NFL Week 10
Review-Journal reporter Todd Dewey, handicapper Kelly Stewart and CG Technology Sports Book Vice President Matt Holt preview Week 10 of the NFL.
Sports Betting Spotlight: College Football Week 11
Review-Journal reporter Todd Dewey, handicapper Kelly Stewart and CG Technology Sports Book Vice President Matt Holt preview Week 11 of the college football season.
Sports Betting Spotlight: College Football Week 10
Review-Journal reporter Todd Dewey, handicapper Kelly Stewart and Boyd Gaming Sports Book Director Bob Scucci preview Week 10 of the college football season.
Sports Betting Spotlight: NFL Week 9
Review-Journal reporter Todd Dewey, handicapper Kelly Stewart and Boyd Gaming Sports Book Director Bob Scucci preview Week 9 of the NFL season.
Sports Betting Spotlight: NFL Week 8
Review-Journal reporter Todd Dewey, handicapper Kelly Stewart and The Mirage sports book director Jeff Stoneback preview Week 8 of the NFL season.
Raiders Videos
Vegas Nation: Raiders announce several coaching hires
Review-Journal Vegas Nation host Bryan Salmond and reporter Michael Gehlken talk about the Raiders coaching hires as well as a significant omission.
Vegas Nation Stadium Show: Construction of stadium on schedule
Review-Journal sports columnist Ed Graney and reporter Rick Velotta talk about how the Raiders' stadium construction is progressing and the complications that might occur due to pricing.
Raiders hire Paul Guenther as defensive coordinator
Paul Guenther is the new defensive coordinator for the Oakland Raiders. Guenther spent the past four years as the Cincinnati Bengals’ defensive coordinator. Guenther, 46, worked with the Bengals from 2005 to 2017. He will call defensive plays in 2018, a role that Ken Norton Jr. handled the first 10 games last season before being fired. Guenther expressed his interest in working with Raiders defensive backs Gareon Conley and Obi Melifonwu. “I really like both of them,” Guenther said. "(Conley) was probably my favorite corner coming out last year." "We just need to get these guys on the grass, keep them healthy and teach them the system," Guenther said.
McKenzie shares memory of Gruden coaching in Green Bay
Raiders general manager Reggie McKenzie shared one of his memories of working alongside head coach Jon Gruden back when they were both in Green Bay.
Vegas Nation: Raiders introduce Jon Gruden as head coach
Bryan Salmond, Ed Graney and Michael Gehlken discuss the Raiders introduction of Jon Gruden as their new head coach, including the unique atmosphere and how Gruden will work with Derek Carr.
Former Raiders discuss what the team and fans can expect from Jon Gruden
Following a press conference to announce Jon Gruden as the Oakland Raiders head coach, former players discussed what it is that he'll bring to the team and the fans.
Jon Gruden news conference highlights
The Oakland Raiders announced Jon Gruden as their head coach on Tuesday at the team headquarters in Alameda, Calif. Gruden previously coached the team from 1998-2001. (Heidi Fang/Las Vegas Review-Journal)
Mark Davis says the Raiders' edge will come from leadership and coaching
Following a news conference announcing Jon Gruden's return as head coach of the Oakland Raiders, team owner Mark Davis said the Raiders' edge will come from leadership and coaching.
Vegas Nation: Raiders hire Jon Gruden
Michael Gehlken talks about the Raiders decision to hire Jon Gruden as their new head coach.
Vegas Nation: Gruden to be named Raiders head coach
Bryan Salmond and Ed Graney discuss the Raiders hiring of Jon Gruden as their new head coach.
Vegas Nation Stadium Show: Votes to occur in coming meetings
Ed Graney and Rick Velotta talk about the latest news about the Las Vegas Stadium.
Vegas Nation: What Does The Raiders Future Look Like?
Vegas Nation host Bryan Salmond and Raiders beat writer Michael Gehlken go over the potential hiring of Jon Gruden and the Raiders performance during the 2017 season.
Raiders’ Crabtree frustrated by lack of playing time to end season
Michael Crabtree expressed his frustration Sunday when asked about his future with the Raiders. The Raiders are expected to part ways with the ninth-year veteran wide receiver this offseason. “I’m out here playing ball,” Crabtree said. “Whatever they ask me to do. Like today, if they only want me to play 10 plays, I’ll play 10 plays." Crabtree started the season hot as the team’s top wideout, catching six touchdowns during the first six games. Crabtree received just three targets against the Eagles on Christmas night and two targets versus the Chargers. Crabtree is owed a $7 million salary in 2018, the third season of a four-year, $34 million extension he signed late in 2015. “I did everything they asked of me. These last two games, I’ve probably had three targets, but nobody saying anything about that," Crabtree said.
Raiders might lure Jon Gruden back to coaching
The Raiders are reportedly pursuing ESPN analyst Jon Gruden to fill their vacant head coaching position. Gruden, 54, has not coached since the 2008 NFL season. “I don’t want to sit here and speculate. There is no news to report,” Gruden told ESPN on Saturday. The NFL Network reported that Davis plans to offer Gruden more than $10 million a year to coach the team with an stake in team ownership. Gruden has been connected with openings in recent years, including a lucrative offer from Indianapolis last season. Gruden was the Raiders head coach from 1998-2001, going 38-26 in four seasons. “I know (Gruden),” Raiders quarterback Derek Carr said. “I’ve known him for a while. But the (Del Rio firing) is still pretty fresh.”
Raiders fire Jack Del Rio
Following the Raiders loss to the Chargers, head coach Jack Del Rio was fired. Del Rio was hired in January 2015 after spending time as the Denver Broncos defensive coordinator. In 2016, Del Rio led the Raiders to a 12-4 record and their first playoff birth since 2002. After the 2016 season, Del Rio signed a 4-year contract extension. In three seasons as the Raiders head coach, Del Rio amassed a 25-23 record. “I’m very grateful," Del Rio said. "My childhood team. But it’s a results business.”
Vegas Nation: Del Rio fired after Raiders drop season finale
Bryan Salmond, Ed Graney, Michael Gehlken and Gilbert Manzano discuss the aftermath of the Raiders loss, including Jack Del Rio getting fired and what might follow.
Raiders' QB Carr reacts to Del Rio firing
Oakland Raiders quarterback Derek Carr addressed the media following the team's loss to the Chargers and discussed his thoughts on head coach Jack Del Rio being fired.
Jack Del Rio announces Oakland Raiders fired him following loss to Chargers
After three years of serving as the head coach for the Oakland Raiders, Jack Del Rio announced he was fired by the organization following the team's loss to the Los Angeles Chargers.
Nacion Vegas: Raiders pierden 30-10 contra los Chargers
Nacion Vegas: Los Raiders pierden 30-10 contra los Chargers para finalizar la temporada. Nación Vegas tiene los detalles del juego entre los Raiders y los Chargers.
Vegas Nation: Raiders finish the season with a loss to Chargers
Bryan Salmond recaps the Raiders final game of the season.
Vegas Nation: Raiders Ready For Loud Fans
Raiders beat writer Michael Gehlken goes over how the Raiders are preparing for the potentially loud crowd for the Chargers game.
Vegas Nation: Raiders Prep For Final Game
Vegas Nation host Bryan Salmond and Raiders beat writer Michael Gehlken go over how the Raiders are preparing for their final game and the future of Todd Downing.
Vegas Nation Red Zone: Raiders face Chargers for final regular-season game
Vegas Nation Red Zone video host Bryan Salmond and NFL writer Gilbert Manzano discuss the Raiders matchup on New Year's Eve against the Los Angeles Chargers.
UNLV can use Las Vegas Raiders stadium parking lots, agreement shows
UNLV will have access to Las Vegas Raiders stadium parking lots, on and offsite, and collect parking fee revenue from them during UNLV events. Now, all that’s needed are the lots themselves. The regents are expected to ask questions about the joint-use agreement on Jan. 4, then consider its approval on Jan. 19. Some of the key elements of the draft agreement: — UNLV will have access to onsite and offsite stadium parking and tailgating lots, which will be administered by the Raiders with net proceeds of parking sales going to UNLV. — The Raiders will control all concessions at the stadium, but net concession revenue from UNLV events will belong to UNLV.
Vegas Nation: Raiders fail to execute, fall to the Eagles
Michael Gehlken talks about the Raiders loss to the Eagles on Christmas Day, including the Raiders' inability to execute and take advantage of a good defensive performance.
Vegas Nation: David Amerson Will Not Play Monday
Raiders beat writer Michael Gehlken goes over the Raiders Injury Report and David Amerson being listed as questionable for Monday's game.
Vegas Nation: Penn and Feliciano are done for the season
Raiders beat writer Michael Gehlken provides an update on several players heading into the Raiders matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles.
Vegas Nation: Offensive line depth taking hits
Bryan Salmond and Michael Gehlken talk about Rodney Hudson playing through kidney stones as well as several Raiders struggling with injuries.
Vegas Nation: Raiders taking Wednesday off
Bryan Salmond and Michael Gehlken talk about the Raiders struggling to digest last week's loss as well as who might replace Donald Penn at left tackle.
Nacion Vegas: Cowboys derrotan Raiders, 20-17
Derek Carr perdió el balón fuera de los límites cerca de la línea de una yarda de los Cowboys con 31 segundos por jugarse. Dallas recuperó la pelota para sellar la victoria.
Vegas Nation: Raiders Fall To Cowboys
Vegas Nation host Bryan Salmond and Review-Journal reporters Michael Gehlken, Gilbert Manzano and Ed Graney recap Sunday night's Raiders 20-17 loss against the Cowboys.
How the Raiders plan to balance their fan base in Oakland and Las Vegas
At the Oakland Raiders groundbreaking ceremony in Las Vegas the team president and owner discussed how they will balance their fan base until they move and how they're planning to deal with any issues they could encounter with the stadium construction.
Raiders remember Las Vegas shooting victims at groundbreaking
During the Oakland Raiders groundbreaking ceremony in Las Vegas, Raiders owner Mark Davis spoke about how important it was to pay tribute to Las Vegas shooting victims at the event.
Raiders break ground on Las Vegas stadium site
The Raiders hosted a ground breaking ceremony at the Las Vegas stadium site near the Strip. Elaine Wilson/Las Vegas Review-Journal
TOP NEWS
News Headlines
ad-infeed_1
ads_infeed_2
Local Spotlight
Events
Home Front Page Footer Listing
Circular
You May Like

You May Like