NFL Week 4 betting breakdown

Dana Lane, DanaLaneSports.com

New Orleans Saints (1-2) at Miami Dolphins (1-1)

Time: 6:30 a.m., KVVU-5

Line/Total: Saints -3, 50½

Dana Lane’s analysis: The Saints scored their first win last week with a 34-13 victory over the Carolina Panthers. The New Orleans defense was impressive, recording four sacks while forcing Cam Newton into three interceptions. The Saints averaged 5.5 yards per carry, but they’ll have a tougher time on the ground against the Dolphins, who are second in the NFL in rushing defense (73.5 ypg).

By the numbers: The Saints have lost four straight against the spread off a win of at least 14 points. … The Dolphins have covered seven of their past 10 on grass. … New Orleans has gone over in six straight games overall and in four of its past five meetings with Miami.

Pick: Dolphins, 31-23

Carolina Panthers (2-1) at New England Patriots (2-1)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: New England -9½, 49

Dana Lane’s analysis: This is the week when New England finally starts to look like the defending Super Bowl champion. The Patriots defense is ranked last, allowing 461 yards and 31.7 points per game, numbers that can’t be sitting well in Foxborough. The offensively challenged Panthers will have another difficult time moving the ball against a motivated New England defense.

By the numbers: The Patriots have covered 20 of their past 28 games. … New England is riding a 7-0 over run.

Pick: Patriots, 34-24

Los Angeles Rams (2-1) at Dallas Cowboys (2-1)

Time: 10 a.m., KVVU-5

Line/Total: Cowboys -6½, 48½

Dana Lane’s analysis: This is a show-me week for the Rams, who started 3-1 last season before losing 11 of their last 12. The winner of this game will be the team that can stop the run while making the other one-dimensional. I have more confidence in the Cowboys’ run defense than that of the Rams, who have allowed an average of 139 rushing yards.

By the numbers: The Rams are on a 1-10 ATS slide vs. the NFC. … The Cowboys are 9-3 ATS following an ATS win. … The under is 18-7-1 in the Rams’ last 26 games on field turf. … The under is 6-2 in Dallas’ last eight vs. the NFC. … Los Angeles is 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings.

Pick: Cowboys, 31-16

Detroit Lions (2-1) at Minnesota Vikings (2-1)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Minnesota -2, 42½

Dana Lane’s analysis: The Lions were inches from a 3-0 record after their comeback bid failed last week against the Falcons. The Vikings also have a bitter memory of their own that they would like to erase after getting swept by Detroit in 2016. The crushing defeats suffered 18 days apart left the Vikings out of the playoffs. Minnesota wideouts Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs will put up big numbers against the Lions’ secondary.

By the numbers: Detroit has dropped 11 of its last 15 games ATS vs. the NFC North. …Minnesota is 40-18 ATS in its last 58 games. … The under is 21-7 in Detroit’s last 28 road games. … The Lions are 3-7-2 ATS in their last 12 visits to Minnesota.

Pick: Vikings, 26-14

Tennessee Titans (2-1) at Houston Texans (1-2)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Titans -2½, 44

Dana Lane’s analysis: This might be the best side/total combination bet on the board this week. Houston has won five straight against the Titans, but this play comes from experience. I’ve seen this too many times in which a team such as Tennessee gets a huge win the week before (over the Seahawks), then has to go on the road to play a team such as Houston that lost a close road game (at New England) and still can’t forget a 22-point home loss to open the season. Take the hungry team.

By the numbers: The Titans are 15-26-4 ATS vs. the AFC. … The Texans are 8-3-1 ATS vs. the AFC South. … The under is 5-2 in Tennessee’s last seven against the AFC. … The under is 10-4 in Houston’s last 14 home games.

Pick: Texans, 23-17

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1) at New York Jets (1-2)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Jacksonville -3, 38½

Dana Lane’s analysis: This is a classic spot for betting the Jets after the Jaguars annihilated the Ravens 44-7 at Wembley Stadium. Travel and general disruption in a team’s routine must be considered. Asking the Jaguars to go on the road again after what had to be a satisfying win last week is too much to ask.

By the numbers: The under is 4-1 in New York’s last five games. … Jacksonville has lost four of its last five games following a victory of at least 14 points.

Pick: Jets, 21-16

Cincinnati Bengals (0-3) at Cleveland Browns (0-3)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Cincinnati -3, 41½

Dana Lane’s analysis: Both teams are winless, but it’s the Bengals that have to be fuming after blowing a 21-7 lead last week en route to a 27-24 overtime loss to the Packers. That’s bad news for the Browns, who gave up 28 first-half points to the Colts.

By the numbers: The Bengals are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 road games. … The Browns are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games. … The under is 17-5 in the Bengals’ last 22 games vs. the AFC. … The under is 8-2 in the Browns’ last 10 games. … The Bengals have covered the last five meetings.

Pick: Bengals, 24-14

Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1) at Baltimore Ravens (2-1)

Time: 10 a.m., KLAS-8

Line/Total: Pittsburgh -3, 42½

Dana Lane’s analysis: After last week’s embarrassing loss to the Jaguars, the Ravens will return home, where they’ve won six straight while going 5-1 ATS. Baltimore has won four of its last five meetings with the Steelers and has covered the last three.

By the numbers: The Ravens are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. the AFC North. … The underdog is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings.

Pick: Ravens, 23-20

Buffalo Bills (2-1) at Atlanta Falcons (3-0)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Falcons -8, 48½

Dana Lane’s analysis: The Bills look solid defensively, but before I jump on their bandwagon, I need to see them have success against a team with a legitimate quarterback. Matt Ryan isn’t the same as facing Josh McCown, Trevor Siemian and Cam Newton, who clearly isn’t 100 percent. The Falcons are off to a 3-0 start despite Ryan’s three interceptions against Detroit. Let’s back the elite quarterback who has something to prove.

By the numbers: The Bills are on a 2-5 ATS slide vs. teams with a winning record. … The Falcons are on a 7-3 ATS surge. … Buffalo is 0-4 ATS in its last four games against Atlanta.

Pick: Falcons, 31-17

New York Giants (0-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1)

Time: 1:05 p.m.

Line/Total: Buccaneers -3, 44½

Dana Lane’s analysis: I still have confidence in Eli Manning, who has completed 75 percent of his passes this season to go with his four TDs. Injuries are starting to mount for Tampa Bay, as it added six players to its injury report after last week’s 34-17 loss to Minnesota. I’ll back the Giants one more time in a virtual must-win situation.

By the numbers: The Giants are 4-1-1 ATS after a straight-up loss. … The Buccaneers are 22-45-1 ATS at home. … New York is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five games in Tampa.

Pick: Giants, 26-20

Philadelphia Eagles (2-1) at Los Angeles Chargers (0-3)

Time: 1:05 p.m.

Line/Total: Chargers -2, 47½

Dana Lane’s analysis: I love this game. The Chargers were thoroughly beaten by the Chiefs last week, but only lost their first two games by a combined five points.

By the numbers: The Eagles are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games. … The Chargers are 5-18 ATS in their last 23 home games. … The over is 12-2 in Philadelphia’s last 14 road games.

Pick: Chargers, 26-23

San Francisco 49ers (0-3) at Arizona Cardinals (1-2)

Time: 1:05 p.m.

Line/Total: Arizona -7, 44½

Dana Lane’s analysis: No reason to believe that Cardinals wideout Larry Fitzgerald won’t add to his almost 2,100 career receiving yards against the Niners. He has had 10 100-yard receiving games against San Francisco, and Arizona quarterback Carson Palmer should have more time to throw behind an offensive line that might be healthy for the first since early in the season opener. Palmer threw for 325 yards Monday against Dallas.

By the numbers: The 49ers are 6-13 ATS vs. teams with a losing record. … The Cardinals are 4-1 ATS following a double-digit loss at home. … The over is 12-5 in San Francisco’s last 17 road games. … Arizona is on an 8-2 over run.

Pick: Cardinals, 30-17

Oakland Raiders (2-1) at Denver Broncos (2-1)

Time: 1:25 p.m., KLAS-8

Line/Total: Denver -3, 46

Dana Lane’s analysis: I always look to take the points in this heated rivalry, especially when it’s three or more. The Raiders will focus on stopping running backs C.J. Anderson and Jamaal Charles and force the Broncos to throw like they did in their loss to Buffalo. I’m betting that the Raiders will continue to run effectively against the league’s top-ranked run defense, which will help Derek Carr’s passing game.

By the numbers: The Raiders are on an 8-3 ATS run vs. the AFC. … The Broncos are on a 2-6-1 ATS slide vs. the AFC West. … The road team is on a 12-5-1 ATS run in the series.

Pick: Raiders, 24-23

Indianapolis Colts (1-2) at Seattle Seahawks (1-2)

Time: 5:30 p.m., KSNV-3

Line/Total: Seattle -13, 41½

Dana Lane’s analysis: Home-field noise is a huge advantage for the Seahawks, and that’s bad news for the Colts, who lead the league in false starts this season with seven. It’s been 10 years since Seattle has allowed three straight 100-yard rushers, so the focus will be on taking away running back Frank Gore and forcing second-year quarterback Jacoby Brissett to beat the crowd and Seattle defense. Brissett finds out that the Browns and the “Legion of Boom” are two separate challenges.

By the numbers: The Colts are 2-6-1 ATS following an ATS win. … The Seahawks are 7-2 ATS following a straight-up loss. … The over is 24-9 in Indianapolis’ last 33 road games. … The over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

Pick: Seahawks, 28-14

Washington Redskins (2-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (3-0)

Time: 5:30 p.m., ESPN

Line/Total: Kansas City -7, 49

Dana Lane’s analysis: Outside of Seattle, the biggest home-field advantage is definitely the one the Arrowhead Stadium crowd gives the Chiefs. This isn’t the ideal spot for the Redskins, as Kansas City fans will be at their best on “Monday Night Football.” Look for running back Kareem Hunt to add to his spectacular start (401 yards, 8.5 ypc). The Chiefs will be too much for the Redskins to handle.

By the numbers: Washington is 1-6 ATS in its last seven Monday night games. … Kansas City is 6-2 ATS vs. teams with a winning record. … The over is 20-8 in the Redskins’ last 28 games. … The favorite has covered four of the last five meetings. … Washington is 0-5 ATS in its last five meetings with the Chiefs.

Pick: Chiefs, 35-17

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