NFL Week 9 betting breakdown: Predictions for every game

NFL BETTING BREAKDOWN

“Dr. Alan” Dumond, two-time top-five Westgate SuperContest finisher

Jaguars (4-3) at Raiders (2-5)

■ Time: 1:05 p.m., Fox

■ Line/total: Jaguars -2½, 44

■ Analysis: This AFC clash is easily the least attractive game on this week’s card. Both squads are coming off their bye week, with both getting blown out in their games before their bye. Neither side is appealing, but we’ll reluctantly side with the home underdog Raiders, as we can’t trust the Jaguars in the road favorite role. The best bet looks to be under the total.

■ Pick: Raiders 23, Jaguars 20

Bears (4-3) at Bengals (3-5)

■ Time: 10 a.m.

■ Line/total: Bears -2½, 51

■ Analysis: Both squads are coming off disappointing losses and look to get back on track with a win. The Bears find themselves in an unaccustomed role of being road favorites for the first time this season, while the Bengals hope to stay within reach of a playoff spot behind 40-year-old quarterback Joe Flacco. We’ll reluctantly side with the home underdog. But the best play is to take the over, as the Bears have given up 24 points or more in three of their past four games, while the Bengals have allowed 27 points or more in their past seven games.

■ Pick: Bengals 30, Bears 27

49ers (5-3) at Giants (2-6)

■ Time: 10 a.m.

■ Line/total: 49ers -2½, 48½

■ Analysis: The Giants got a double dose of bad news last week, as not only did they get blown out by the divisional rival Eagles, but they also lost rookie running back Cam Skattebo for the season. On the flip side, the 49ers are coming off a disappointing road loss to the Texans, where they scored only 15 points against Houston’s tough defense. Points should be easier to come by for San Francisco quarterback Mac Jones and Co. against a New York defense that has given up 26 points or more in three of its past four games.

■ Pick: 49ers 27, Giants 20

Falcons (3-4) at Patriots (6-2)

■ Time: 10 a.m.

■ Line/total: Patriots -5½, 45

■ Analysis: This game sets up as a classic buy low, sell high, as the Patriots enter like a runaway freight train, having won and covered five straight, four as a favorite. On the flip side, the Falcons have lost their past two games, scoring only 10 points in each. Atlanta should get back quarterback Michael Penix Jr. and wide receivers Drake London and Darnell Mooney. We’ll look for the New England freight train to slow down a bit, and for the Falcons to be much more competitive than they have been the past two weeks.

■ Pick: Patriots 24, Falcons 21

Colts (7-1) at Steelers (4-3)

■ Time: 10 a.m., CBS

■ Line/total: Colts -3, 50½

■ Analysis: The Colts are 6-2 against the spread after last week’s blowout win over the Titans. The Steelers have lost two straight, including Sunday’s 35-25 home loss to the Packers in which they were outscored 28-9 in the second half. It might seem folly to step in front of Indianapolis right now, but with Steelers coach Mike Tomlin’s stellar career record of 20-7-1 ATS as a home underdog, that puts us squarely on the Steelers.

■ Pick: Steelers 24, Colts 21

Panthers (4-4) at Packers (5-1-1)

■ Time: 10 a.m.

■ Line/total: Packers -13, 44

■ Analysis: The Packers are coming off an emotional win over the Steelers and former Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers, with a home game on deck against the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles on “Monday Night Football.” The Packers could be a little flat. The Panthers are coming off a blowout home loss to the Bills and looking to bounce back. Carolina quarterback Bryce Young sat out against the Bills, but is expected to start this one.

■ Pick: Packers 24, Panthers 17

Vikings (3-4) at Lions (5-2)

■ Time: 10 a.m.

■ Line/total: Lions -9, 48½

■ Analysis: These two NFC North rivals have been heading in opposite directions, as the Lions have won five of their past six and the Vikings have lost four of six. The Lions, coming off their bye, have won and covered all three home games by an average of 24 points. But this is a division matchup, and the feeling here is the Vikings will rally around returning quarterback J.J. McCarthy.

■ Pick: Lions 28, Vikings 24

Broncos (6-2) at Texans (3-4)

■ Time: 10 a.m.

■ Line/total: Texans -1½, 40

■ Analysis: This game sets up as strength versus strength, as the high-flying Broncos offense, which has scored 77 points the past two weeks, collides with the Texans’ league-leading scoring defense, which allows 14.7 points per game. We’ll give a slight edge to the home team with the dominant defense.

■ Pick: Texans 20, Broncos 17

Chargers (5-3) at Titans (1-7)

■ Time: 10 a.m.

■ Line/total: Chargers -9½, 44

■ Analysis: The Titans are a dumpster fire, with one win and two covers in what has been a forgettable season in which they fired coach Brian Callahan. The Chargers have been inconsistent, losing three of their past five games after a 3-0 start. Los Angeles is 1-2 ATS as a road favorite, and this will be the biggest point spread in that role. It’s tough to back Tennessee, which has been blown out the past two weeks, but we’ll side with the ugly home underdog.

■ Pick: Chargers 24, Titans 20

Saints (1-7) at Rams (5-2)

■ Time: 1:05 p.m.

■ Line/total: Rams -14, 44

■ Analysis: This NFC matchup features the largest spread of the week. The Rams are at home and will be well rested and well prepared coming off their bye. The Saints are reeling, losing and failing to cover their past three games following their only win of the season over the Giants. With New Orleans’ season already appearing lost, Saints rookie coach Kellen Moore has turned to rookie quarterback Tyler Shough, who will be making his first start against Los Angeles’ No. 3-ranked scoring defense (16.7 points per game allowed).

■ Pick: Rams 31, Saints 10

Chiefs (5-3) at Bills (5-2)

■ Time: 1:25 p.m., CBS

■ Line/total: Chiefs -2, 52½

■ Analysis: This is easily the marquee matchup of the week. A battle between two AFC heavyweights, this game could have implications come playoff time for both teams. The Chiefs have won five of their past six after an 0-2 start and are looking like a Super Bowl contender again. The Bills are 2-5 ATS and haven’t looked as dominant as in recent years. Kansas City is on a three-game winning streak and has scored 28 points or more in its past five games.

■ Pick: Chiefs 28, Bills 24

Seahawks (5-2) at Commanders (3-5)

■ Time: 5:20 p.m., NBC

■ Line/total: Seahawks -3, 48

■ Analysis: This matchup features two surprise teams, one from this season and one from last season. The Seahawks are a surprise team this season, and the Commanders were last season’s surprise team but have taken a step back this season. Part of Washington’s problem is it has been beset with injuries, but it will have quarterback Jayden Daniels back for this game. The Commanders have lost three straight and didn’t look good in any of them, so we can’t back them until we see them play a complete game. The Seahawks have looked good, winning five of their past six, and are well rested off a bye.

■ Pick: Seahawks 27, Commanders 20

Cardinals (2-5) at Cowboys (3-4)

■ Time: 5:15 p.m., ABC, ESPN

■ Line/total: Cowboys -3, 53½

■ Analysis: The Cardinals are coming off their bye and looking to snap a five-game losing streak. The Cowboys return home after suffering a blowout loss at Denver. Dallas has the NFL’s 31st-ranked scoring defense. But the Cowboys are 2-0-1 at home and have scored 24 points or more in their past five games.

■ Pick: Cowboys 31, Cardinals 27