Popular Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl prop bet has checkered past
Patrick Mahomes has delivered wins and covers for Chiefs bettors in three of his four Super Bowl appearances. But the Kansas City quarterback also dealt gamblers one of the worst bad beats in Super Bowl prop betting history.
Bettors who wagered on Mahomes to go over his rushing yards prop in Super Bowl 54 against the 49ers in 2020 were already counting their winnings in the final minute. Mahomes was at 44 yards to easily eclipse his total, which ranged from 30½ to 36½.
Bettors’ ecstasy soon turned to agony as Mahomes took three deep kneel-downs to run out the clock in the Chiefs’ 31-20 win. The loss of 15 yards lowered his total rushing yards to 29 as the prop improbably went under.
Almost the exact same scenario played out this season on Sept. 22. Mahomes had 30 yards rushing entering the final minute to top his prop of 19½ yards against Atlanta. He then took three deep kneel-downs for a loss of 13 yards as over bettors had their money lit on fire again in Kansas City’s 22-17 victory.
Despite the bad beats, sharp bettors are banking on Mahomes to go over his rushing yards prop in Super Bowl 59 against the Eagles on Sunday in New Orleans. Sharp money at the Westgate SuperBook pushed his total up from 28½ yards to 31½.
Mahomes has surpassed that total in eight of his 20 playoff games, including his last three Super Bowls. He had 11 carries for 43 yards and two touchdowns in the AFC title game against the Bills on Jan. 27.
“Whatever you saw last week, (bettors) try to picture that this week,” SuperBook vice president of risk Ed Salmons said. “Last week we saw Mahomes score two touchdowns, so they’re picturing that.”
The Westgate took sharp bets on Mahomes to go over 5½ rushing attempts (now 6½) and to score a rushing touchdown (+375), which he has done only once in the Super Bowl (in 2020) and in only six of his 20 playoff games. He’s 20-1 to score two rushing touchdowns or more.
Hurts so good
Sharp bettors wagered on Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts to go under his rushing yards prop, which dropped from 40½ to 38½ at the SuperBook. Hurts has rushed for at least 39 yards in nine of 18 games this season, including the playoffs. He had 70 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns in Super Bowl 57 against the Chiefs.
Hurts is -130 to score a rushing touchdown and 5-1 to score two rushing TDs or more. He has scored a rushing touchdown in 12 of 18 games this season, including three in Philadelphia’s win over Washington in the NFC title game.
Hurts completed 27 of his 38 passes for 304 yards and a touchdown in Super Bowl 57. Salmons said sharps bet Hurts over 17½ completions and over 8½ incompletions, pushing that total to 9½.
What will Hurts throw first, a touchdown pass or an interception? Sharps bet interception at +270 and +250, and it’s now +240.
Mahomes completed 21 of his 27 passes for 182 yards and three touchdowns in Super Bowl 57.
Wiseguys also wagered on Mahomes -½ TD passes over Hurts and to throw over 2½ TD passes (+260). They also bet on Mahomes to throw a TD pass in the third quarter (+190) and in the fourth quarter (+130).
“We had an out-of-state guest with very sharp action bet over $29,000 on propositions,” Rampart Casino race and sports manager Duane Colucci said. “He was just firing on everything. He was going under on most of these propositions. The distance of the first touchdown pass by Mahomes, he went under 9½ yards.”
The Rampart also took bets on Mahomes and Hurts to not throw a first quarter touchdown pass. No is now -200 for Mahomes and -280 for Hurts.
“We’ve been seeing some action against that because of the fact that most teams start slow in the Super Bowl,” Colucci said.
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on X.