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Raiders ‘massive liability’ at sportsbooks to win Super Bowl

On the 40th anniversary of the Raiders’ most recent Super Bowl championship season, bettors are backing them to repeat the feat at Allegiant Stadium.

Las Vegas sportsbooks are on the hook for a collective multimillion-dollar loss if the hometown team beats long odds and becomes the third squad in four years to win the Super Bowl at their home stadium.

“We have a massive liability on the Raiders to win the Super Bowl,” Westgate SuperBook vice president of risk Ed Salmons said. “It’s three times the liability on the Raiders than any other team.

“They keep betting them like it’s the Golden Knights in year one. It’s unbelievable.”

The SuperBook’s liability on the Raiders is approaching seven figures, and the team also represents the largest liability at BetMGM, Caesars, Station Casinos and South Point sportsbooks.

The largest payout on a single Super Bowl bet nationwide at Caesars Sportsbook is on the Raiders. A bettor in Las Vegas wagered $20,000 to win $800,000 on the Raiders at 40-1 odds.

They represent a low seven-figure liability at BetMGM, where they’re 80-1 to win the Super Bowl.

“It’s kind of to be expected with them being the home team here,” MGM Resorts director of trading Lamarr Mitchell said. “Everybody is going to bet the Raiders.”

BetMGM took Super Bowl wagers on the Raiders of $1,500 to win $120,000 and $1,000 to win $80,000.

They’re a six-figure liability at South Point.

“We lose pretty good on them,” South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews said. “I’m not really sweating it right now, to tell you the truth. I think they’re going to have a pretty rough year.”

At Circa Sports, where the Chargers are the largest liability, the Raiders are 100-1 to win the Super Bowl, 45-1 to win the AFC and 27-1 to win the AFC West.

The Raiders are the ticket leaders, by a landslide, at Station to win their first division title since 2002.

“We do have liability on them in the division, conference and Super Bowl. But they’re still the fourth choice in their division behind the Chiefs, Chargers and Broncos,” Red Rock Resort sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said. “It’s very similar to what we’ve seen with the Knights and Aces. There is clearly local bias.

“When you look at the teams on paper, it’s difficult to make a case they’re better than the other three at this point.”

Over or under

One of the most popular sharp bets has been on the Raiders to go under their win total, which has dropped from 7½ to 6½.

“There was some sharp money on the under. But the public is heavily on the over. We need them to go under 6½,” SuperBook director John Murray said. “It’s a tough spot for the Raiders. I don’t think they’re a bad team. I just think they’re in a really good division.

“Where are the wins going to come from?”

The Chiefs are the 6-1 favorites at the Westgate to repeat as Super Bowl champions, and eight of the top 11 favorites are from the AFC.

“They’re in the wrong division, and they’re in the wrong conference, too. The AFC is just loaded with good teams,” Salmons said. “If they were in the NFC South or AFC South, they’d have a shot. But the AFC North, AFC West and AFC East are three of the best divisions in football.”

For a Silver and Black lining, SumerSports’ computer simulation plays the 272-game NFL schedule 10,000 times to produce each team’s estimated number of wins.

The quantitative analysis site projects the Raiders to finish with 7.6 wins.

“Our simulation likes the Raiders at higher than 6½ wins, where their market is,” SumerSports executive Eric Eager said. “It’s about the teams and schemes because Jimmy (Garoppolo) was very efficient in San Francisco. How efficient can he be in Vegas? He’s got a better wide receiver 1 than he’s ever had before (in Davante Adams). But they lose (tight end Darren) Waller, and the offensive line isn’t great.

“When you look at the secondary, they’re basically one injury away on the offensive line or defensive backfield from being terrible. If people stay healthy, they can be pretty solid. But if not, I think it’s going to be tough in the AFC, which is a lot harder than the NFC.”

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.

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Las Vegas handicapper Bruce Marshall is an analyst at VegasInsider.com. Each week, he provides the Review-Journal with NFL tech notes and trends.