Sell high on Auburn against an aggressive Florida defense

The public seems to love Auburn this week, and for good reason.

The Tigers are 5-0 against the spread and straight up with impressive wins against Oregon, Texas A&M and Mississippi State.

Florida didn’t look good against Miami and struggled against Kentucky, and is playing without starting quarterback Feleipe Franks. The Gators should not be able to run the ball against Auburn and will have trouble throwing the ball downfield.

Florida defensive coordinator Todd Grantham probably learned his lesson against Kentucky backup QB Sawyer Smith, as the normally aggressive blitzer chose to drop as many players as possible into coverage.

I’m betting he doesn’t make the same mistake against true freshman Bo Nix, who got staked to an early 14-0 lead in his only road game. Florida is third in the country in havoc rate, including 45 tackles for loss. Auburn’s offensive line has allowed 31 TFLs, 13th in the SEC.

Auburn’s defensive line also has a huge advantage in this matchup, but Kyle Trask (77.3 percent completion rate) has been much more accurate than Nix (57.6).

Take Florida +2½ at home.

Four more plays (home team in CAPS):

Baylor (+1½) over KANSAS STATE: The wrong team is favored. Kansas State was fortunate to beat an overrated Mississippi State. Baylor is a net +2.4 yards per play, while the Wildcats are +0.3. Kansas State operates at a snail’s pace and runs nearly 68 percent of the time. Baylor is allowing 3.1 yards per carry and could be fielding a Top 25 defense. I don’t expect the Wildcats to be able to keep pace, especially if they fall behind.

Ball State (+5) over NORTHERN ILLINOIS: Unders are 12-6 in Northern Illinois games since the beginning of last season. At 55, this is the highest total in a Huskies game since Nov. 2, 2017. I don’t understand why, as NIU has scored 17, 8 and 18 against FBS teams. Yes, it was stiff competition, but the team’s offense ranks 104th in SP+. Its defense is even worse at No. 110. Ball State got within 10 of Indiana and 11 of N.C. State and I believe the Cardinals are better on both sides of the ball. This is a tossup game with a total that should be in the 40s.

Texas (-10½) over WEST VIRGINIA: I’ve been impressed with the emergence of efficiency machine Devin Duvernay at Texas (39 catches in four games). Sam Ehlinger has been nearly flawless operating an offense hammered by running back injuries. West Virginia’s defense will put up little resistance. The key is the other side of the ball, where Texas is missing gobs of defensive backs. But the Mountaineers don’t produce explosive pass plays and aren’t especially proficient with shorter timing routes. Plus, West Virginia should be 1-3. Expect Texas to roll.

Memphis (-14½) over LOUISIANA-MONROE: The Memphis defense has carried the team, and the Tigers need that to continue Saturday. The Tigers are without RB Patrick Taylor and the Warhawks score in spurts. But the Louisiana-Monroe defense can’t catch a cold. Memphis entered last week 2-2 against Navy in recent years with two upset losses, but won by double digits and covered, which I thought was impressive. This is a potential Group of 5 New Year’s Six representative against a team falsely inflated by one half of exciting football against a bad Florida State defense. Louisiana-Monroe lost by 52 to the only good team it has played. I expect a good effort from an under-recognized Memphis defense as well as some explosive plays by the Tigers on offense.

Last Week: 2-2-1

Season: 12-11-2

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Christopher Smith of AL.com, NOLA.com and MyBookie is providing college football analysis for the Las Vegas Review-Journal. Follow @cfblocksmith on Twitter.