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Sharp bettors back side, total in Raiders-Dolphins matchup

After the Raiders won back-to-back home games over two of the NFL’s lowest-scoring teams in the Jets and Giants, they will take a big step up in class Sunday against the high-flying Dolphins.

Sharp bettors have backed Miami, which leads the league in scoring at 31.7 points per game. The Dolphins are 13½-point home favorites over the Raiders after the line opened at 10 and shot up as high as 14 at Circa Sports.

“I think it was just a bad opener, nothing newsworthy that caused such a big move,” Circa sportsbook risk manager Dylan Sullivan said. “There was just no interest on the Raiders inside 13.”

The Westgate SuperBook and BetMGM reported sharp money on the Dolphins, and the SuperBook also reported sharp action on the game to go under the total, which has dropped from 48½ to 46½.

“The total dropped a bit from action, but again, no injuries or anything special that caused it,” Sullivan said.

The Raiders have gone under in three straight games and seven of eight, and they’re tied with the Giants for the NFL’s best under record at 8-2.

Miami (6-3, 6-3 ATS, 5-4 over/under) is coming off its bye week, which followed a 21-14 loss to the Chiefs in Frankfurt, Germany. The Dolphins have won and covered all four home games this season: 70-20 over the Broncos, 31-16 over the Giants, 42-21 over the Panthers and 31-17 over the Patriots.

The Raiders (5-5, 5-5 ATS, 2-8 over/under) beat the Giants 30-6 in their first game under interim coach Antonio Pierce and followed that up with a 16-12 win over the Jets on “Sunday Night Football.”

“The Raiders have played two poor teams. They did what they needed to do to get the win, but this is taking it to another level, going down to Miami,” SuperBook vice president Jay Kornegay said. “It’s a pretty good matchup for the Dolphins because their passing attack isn’t a good matchup for the Raiders defense.”

The betting public backed the Raiders the past two weeks, but are banking on Miami this week.

“Offensively, it looks like a mismatch. The Dolphins are off their bye, and the Raiders have to travel back to the Eastern time zone,” Red Rock Resort sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said. “We’re pretty good-sized Raiders fans. The ticket count is about 2-1 in favor of the Dolphins.”

BetMGM also needs the Raiders.

“The money is 2-1 in favor of the Dolphins,” MGM Resorts director of trading Lamarr Mitchell said.

The Raiders are +650 underdogs on the money line, and the Dolphins are prohibitive -1,100 favorites. Mitchell said the Raiders lead the ticket count by a 50-1 ratio on the money line.

After opening the season with a 17-16 win at Denver, the Raiders have lost and failed to cover four straight on the road: 38-10 at Buffalo, 24-17 at the Chargers, 30-12 at Chicago and 26-14 at Detroit.

Professional sports bettor Jeff Whitelaw didn’t wager on the game, but said he would lean to the Raiders.

“It looks like a high number. When in doubt, you’re certainly looking to play a double-digit underdog,” he said. “I originally made the Dolphins 11½ (point favorites). I would certainly take 14.

“The Raiders defense is playing a little bit better. But offensively, they’re not doing too good. It’s going to be hard for them to keep up.”

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on X.

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