Sharp bettors move lines on NFL draft props in Las Vegas

Wagering on the NFL draft in Nevada has been dominated by sharp bettors since sportsbooks were allowed to take wagers on the event in 2017.

The betting public probably would have overwhelmed wiseguy action on the draft had it taken place in Las Vegas as scheduled. But with casinos closed because of the coronavirus pandemic and betting available only on mobile apps, sharps are again expected to account for the vast majority of wagers.

“The number of bets is probably 60 to 70 percent sharp. But the actual handle is probably higher than that. Just because they’ve got money in their account,” The Mirage sportsbook director Jeff Stoneback said. “Had we had the draft in town, there would be a ton of public money.”

Sharps have historically beaten the books on the draft. The three-day event begins Thursday.

“We’re definitely not paying our bills with markets like this,” William Hill sportsbook director Nick Bogdanovich said. “It is all information-driven. Anything where it’s information-driven and one or two outcomes, it’s usually not the best-looking situation for us.

“It all depends on what you see and read and who you believe and trust.”

It’s all under

Bogdanovich said some of William Hill’s biggest decisions are on draft positions. The book needs the following players to go over their number: Mekhi Becton (10½), Jerry Jeudy (12½), C.J. Henderson (14½), J.K. Dobbins (47) and Jalen Hurts (60).

Hurts, the former Alabama and Oklahoma quarterback, opened at 65½ at William Hill.

“They fell in love with him at the end,” Bogdanovich said.

In a player-to-be-drafted-first matchup at MGM Resorts, Hurts is a -150 favorite over Jake Fromm after opening at +145.

The betting tide also has turned in the total number of wide receivers drafted in the first round. Over 5½ opened at -130 at William Hill and then soared to -260 before falling to -160.

“We need the over now,” Bogdanovich said. “There was a flood of under money the last 48 hours. Every bet has been under.”

Tua vs. Herbert

Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa opened as a -150 favorite in a head-to-head matchup with Oregon QB Justin Herbert. But the line is now -110 on each side.

Herbert to be picked by the Dolphins is a -145 favorite at MGM Resorts after opening at +125. The number on the same prop moved from +200 to -120 at William Hill.

Biggest movers

In another head-to-head prop, Minnesota safety Antoine Winfield has made up some serious ground on Louisiana State safety Grant Delpit, moving from a 5-1 underdog to +130 while attracting 77 percent of the money wagered. A William Hill bettor placed a $500 wager to win $2,500 on Winfield to be picked first.

Georgia running back D’Andre Swift is -200 to be drafted before Wisconsin running back Jonathan Taylor after opening at -120 and has attracted 95 percent of the money.

Biggest potential payouts

Here are the six largest potential payouts on a draft prop at William Hill:

— $500 to win $25,000 on Browns to draft Isaiah Simmons.

— $500 to win $20,000 on Buccaneers to draft Jeudy.

— $1,000 to win $15,000 on Redskins to draft Tagovailoa.

— $100 to win $15,000 on Hurts to be third quarterback drafted.

— $100 to win $15,000 on Browns to draft Jeff Okudah.

— $100 to win $15,000 on Redskins to draft Okudah.

Free draft contest

Caesars Entertainment is offering a free NFL Draft Pick ’Em online game available to enter until the start of the draft. Prizes include tickets to Super Bowl LV and tickets to a 2020 Raiders game. Those interested should visit Caesars.com/DraftPickEm and attempt to correctly predict first-round picks.

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.