Sportsbooks expect to need Raiders against Dolphins
The Raiders have had arguably the NFL’s most difficult home schedule this season and face another tough test Saturday in their 2020 Allegiant Stadium finale.
Sharp bettors and the betting public are backing the Dolphins, consensus 3-point favorites after the line opened at 2½ at most Las Vegas sportsbooks.
“Our lookahead number was Raiders -1½, but when we reopened the game we flipped it to Dolphins favored and it got bet up to -3 -120,” Westgate sportsbook director John Murray said. “It’s not surprising to see the favorite flip with the quarterback change for the Raiders and the good win for Miami last weekend.
“The book will actually need the Raiders. Miami is setting up as a popular play.”
Las Vegas is coming off a 30-27 overtime home loss to the Chargers on Dec. 17, when QB Derek Carr was replaced by Marcus Mariota after leaving with a groin injury.
The Raiders (7-7, 7-7 ATS) have lost four of five games following a 6-3 start and are on an 0-4 spread slide after starting the season 7-3 ATS.
Las Vegas is 2-5 at home (3-4 ATS), with wins and covers over the Saints and Broncos. The Raiders covered in a loss to the Chiefs but failed to cover in losses to the Bills, Buccaneers, Colts and Chargers.
“We’ve needed the Raiders in every one of their home games this year except their game against Denver,” Sunset Station sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said. “I’m guessing we’re going to need the Raiders again at home. The ticket count and early action have clearly been on the Dolphins.”
Bettors are all over Miami at BetMGM, where the Dolphins have drawn more tickets and money than any other NFL team this week. There’s also heavy action on Miami at William Hill, where 78 percent of the tickets and 86 percent of the money on the game are on the Dolphins.
Miami (9-5) beat New England 22-12 on Sunday for its eighth win in 10 games. The Dolphins are on a 9-1 cover streak and have the NFL’s best spread record at 11-3.
Professional sports bettor Jeff Whitelaw wagered on Miami -2½.
“I don’t know if Carr’s even going to play or not. But the Raiders are decimated with injuries and the Dolphins are playing pretty well,” he said. “I know (coach Jon) Gruden will have them ready, but they’re almost mathematically eliminated from the playoffs even if they win. I just can’t see the motivation.
“If you look at the Raiders’ defensive injuries, they’re going to have a hard time. That’s why they haven’t been able to win against teams they should’ve beaten. Now they’re playing a team that’s a little bit better.”
Something’s got to give on the total, which is a consensus 47½.
“We’ve seen sharp money under 48 and over 47,” Circa sportsbook manager Chris Bennett said.
The Raiders are the NFL’s top over team with a 10-3-1 over-under mark and is 5-1-1 to the over at home, where their games have averaged a total of 59.8 points.
On the flip side, Miami has the league’s No. 1 scoring defense, allowing only 18.4 points per game, and is one of the NFL’s best under teams at 9-5.
The books expect to need the under. The total is at 48 at Station.
“The ticket count is overwhelmingly in favor of the over, yet the Miami defense has given up the least amount of points (257) of any team,” Esposito said. “It goes back to the Raiders’ defense. It doesn’t stop a lot of people, which means their offense has to score a lot of points.”
The Raiders are 29th in scoring defense (30.1 ppga) and 11th in scoring offense (26.9 ppg). Miami is 16th in scoring (25.1 ppg).
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.
