What to bet on Wednesday, with pick on Stanley Cup Final (updated)
Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Final, a critical NBA Game 4 and baseball closing in on the playoffs.
Here’s the betting menu for Wednesday (odds from the Westgate, updated at 10:45 a.m.):
NBA
(At Lake Buena Vista, Florida)
Boston (-3½, total 212, -170 ML) vs. Miami (+150 ML), Game 4, 5:30 p.m.
The favored Celtics finally gained a foothold in the Eastern Conference Finals with a 117-106 victory in Game 3, covering as 3½-point favorites. The Heat still lead the series 2-1. Boston lost as favorites of 2 to 3 points in the first two games. The Game 4 total is the highest so far of the series after two of the first three games went over, though one of those was in overtime. The teams have had three days off to allow the Western Conference Finals to catch up. The Heat are -125 favorites to win the series (Celtics +105).
Line movement: Boston up from -3. Total up from 210½.
NHL
(At Edmonton, Alberta)
Tampa Bay (-150, 5 over -125) vs. Dallas (+135), Game 3, 5 p.m.
The favored Lightning struck back with a 3-2 victory in Game 2 to even the Stanley Cup Final. Tampa Bay appeared to be heading to an easy win after going up 3-0 in the first period, but as the Golden Knights found out, nothing comes easy against the Stars, who closed the gap and battled until the end. The money line has stayed in the same range so far for each game in the series (Lightning -155 to -160), though the Game 3 line dipped to -150 on Wednesday morning. The first two games pushed on the total of 5. The Lightning are -180 to win the series (Stars +160). Look for more analysis and a handicapper’s pick on the game below.
Line movement: Tampa Bay down from -155. Juice on total down from -130.
MLB
(Pitchers subject to change)
(Note: xFIP is an advanced stat that is a more accurate measure of a pitcher’s performance than ERA.)
Los Angeles Angels (+164) at San Diego (-178, 8½ over -115), 1:10 p.m.
Probable pitchers: Los Angeles’ Jaime Barria (RHP, 1-0, 3.26 ERA, 4.87 xFIP) vs. San Diego’s Mike Clevinger (RHP, 3-2, 3.10 ERA, 4.29 xFIP)
Line movement: San Diego down from -185.
Philadelphia (-138, 9½ over -115) at Washington (+128), 3:05 p.m.
Probable pitchers: Philadelphia’s Zach Eflin (RHP, 3-2, 4.28 ERA, 3.06 xFIP) vs. Washington’s Erick Fedde (RHP, 2-3, 4.36 ERA, 5.38 xFIP)
Line movement: Total now juiced to over after being 9½ -110.
Texas (+145) at Arizona (-155, 9½), 3:10 p.m.
Probable pitchers: Texas’ Wes Benjamin (LHP, 1-1, 4.41 ERA, 4.91 xFIP) vs. Arizona’s Alex Young (LHP, 2-4, 5.44 ERA, 5.16 xFIP)
Chicago White Sox (+140) at Cleveland (-150, 7 under -125), 3:10 p.m.
Probable pitchers: Chicago’s Lucas Giolito (RHP, 4-3, 3.53 ERA, 3.41 xFIP) vs. Cleveland’s Shane Bieber (RHP, 8-1, 1.74 ERA, 2.07 xFIP)
Line movement: Total now juiced heavily to under after being 7 -110.
New York Yankees (-230, 10½ under -115) at Toronto (+205), 3:37 p.m.
Probable pitchers: New York’s Masahiro Tanaka (RHP, 3-2, 3.27 ERA, 4.25 xFIP) vs. Toronto’s Robbie Ray (LHP, 2-5, 7.17 ERA, 5.93 xFIP)
Houston (-205, 8½ over -115) at Seattle (+185), 3:40 p.m.
Probable pitchers: Houston’s Zack Greinke (RHP, 3-2, 3.90 ERA, 3.51 xFIP) vs. Seattle’s Nick Margevicius (LHP, 1-3, 5.35 ERA, 4.54 xFIP)
Line movement: Houston up from -190. Total now juiced to over after being 8½ -110.
Milwaukee (+152) at Cincinnati (-162, 8½), 3:40 p.m.
Probable pitchers: Milwaukee’s Adrian Houser (RHP, 1-5, 5.33 ERA, 4.13 xFIP) vs. Cincinnati’s Trevor Bauer (RHP, 4-4, 1.80 ERA, 3.31 xFIP)
Line movement: Cincinnati up from -154. Total up from 8.
Chicago Cubs (-230, 8½ under -115) at Pittsburgh (+205), 4:05 p.m.
Probable pitchers: Chicago’s Kyle Hendricks (RHP, 6-4, 2.93 ERA, 3.63 xFIP) vs. Pittsburgh’s Trevor Williams (RHP, 1-8, 6.70 ERA, 4.91 xFIP)
Miami (+160) at Atlanta (-170, 8), 4:10 p.m.
Probable pitchers: Miami’s Sixto Sanchez (RHP, 3-2, 2.75 ERA, 3.71 xFIP) vs. Atlanta’s Max Fried (LHP, 7-0, 1.96 ERA, 3.92 xFIP)
Tampa Bay (-155, 8 over -120) at New York Mets (+145), 4:10 p.m.
Probable pitchers: Tampa Bay’s Tyler Glasnow (RHP, 4-1, 4.21 ERA, 2.79 xFIP) vs. New York’s Michael Wacha (RHP, 1-3, 6.75 ERA, 4.26 xFIP)
Baltimore (+148) at Boston (-158, 9 under -115), 4:30 p.m.
Probable pitchers: Baltimore’s Dean Kremer (RHP, 1-0, 1.69 ERA, 4.42 xFIP) vs. Boston’s Nathan Eovaldi (RHP, 3-2, 4.25 ERA, 3.59 xFIP)
Line movement: Boston down from -165. Total now juiced to under after being over -115.
Detroit (+260) at Minnesota (-300, 8 over -120), 4:40 p.m.
Probable pitchers: Detroit’s Casey Mize (RHP, 0-2, 6.08 ERA, 5.34 xFIP) vs. Minnesota’s Kenta Maeda (RHP, 5-1, 2.52 ERA, 2.73 xFIP)
Line movement: Minnesota up from -275. Total now juiced to over after being 8 -110.
St. Louis (-127, 9 under -115) at Kansas City (+117), 5:05 p.m.
Probable pitchers: St. Louis’ Carlos Martinez (RHP, 0-2, 8.40 ERA, 5.10 xFIP) vs. Kansas City’s Danny Duffy (LHP, 3-4, 5.01 ERA, 5.05 xFIP)
Line movement: Total now juiced to under after being over -115.
Oakland (+146) at Los Angeles Dodgers (-156, 9 under -120), 6:40 p.m.
Probable pitchers: Oakland’s Sean Manaea (LHP, 4-3, 4.50 ERA, 3.58 xFIP) vs. Los Angeles’ Julio Urias (LHP, 3-0, 3.49 ERA, 4.97 xFIP)
Colorado (+177) at San Francisco (-194, 9 over -120), 6:45 p.m.
Probable pitchers: Colorado’s Ryan Castellani (RHP, 1-3, 5.59 ERA, 6.30 xFIP) vs. San Francisco’s Logan Webb (RHP, 2-4, 5.73 ERA, 4.48 xFIP)
Line movement: San Francisco up from -185.
What happened Tuesday
NBA
— Denver (+6½, +215) defeated the Los Angeles Lakers 114-106 to even the Western Conference Finals at 1. The game slipped over 215. The Nuggets led by 10 at halftime and by 18 at the end of the third quarter. The Lakers mounted a comeback and drew within three midway through the fourth quarter, but Denver’s Jamal Murray hit two big 3-pointers to help seal the victory. The Lakers made only 6 of 26 3-pointers (23.1 percent). The Lakers are still -1,100 to win the series (Nuggets +700).
MLB
Favorites went 9-6 with one game closing pick’em. Totals went 10-4-2 to the under.
Hot Corner handicapper selection
Under 5 Lightning-Stars (+110)
Dana Lane (@DanaLaneSports, 6-8, -2.57 units): The Lightning allowed just two shots in the final 14:33 of Game 2 with the Stars desperately looking for the game-tying goal. That’s important, as the way teams finish games gives an idea of what to expect the next time out. In this case, Tampa Bay found a way to shut Dallas down in its moment of desperation, leaving me to wonder what could change for Game 3.
The Stars need to stay out of the penalty box. Dallas has been shorthanded 16 more times than Tampa Bay this postseason, a trend that can’t continue if we’re going to cash this bet. The Lightning will try to pin the Stars in their own zone, just as they did late in Game 2. The Stars need to focus on keeping the game five-on-five as much as possible.
Contact Jim Barnes at jbarnes@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0277. Follow @JimBarnesLV on Twitter.
