The UFC will serve up beatdowns for breakfast on Saturday, when the prelims for the UFC on ABC 2 card start at 9 a.m. at the Apex in Las Vegas.
Handicapper Lou Finocchiaro has four best bets, including one on the main event between Marvin Vettori and Kevin Holland. The main card starts at noon.
Vettori-Holland O4½, +145
Holland lost a unanimous decision to Derek Brunson on March 20. Finocchiaro also expects his middleweight fight against Vettori to go over the total of 4½ rounds.
“Three weeks ago, Holland talked the whole way through his fight and got his (butt) kicked,” said Finocchiaro (@GambLou). “He’s stepping in on short notice with a guy who’s more dangerous than his opponent three weeks ago. But I also feel the UFC mandated him to show up and fight or ‘You’re out of here.’
“Holland is skilled. If he can keep it standing, keep his distance and use his jab, he can survive this fight for five rounds.”
Mackenzie Dern’s strawweight fight against Nina Ansaroff on the main card comes down to physiology, Finocchiaro said.
Dern, 28, has won her last three fights after losing her previous bout following the birth of her daughter, Moa.
Ansaroff, 35, is in a similar spot now in her first fight since giving birth six months ago to her daughter, Raegan. Ansaroff weighed 185 pounds shortly after giving birth and weighed in at 115 on Friday.
“Dern has said she wasn’t emotionally and physically ready to return to the octagon so soon and that it took her up to two years to gain back her lost muscle mass,” Finocchiaro said. “If that’s her opinion on a 26-year-old body, what must Nina be experiencing at 35?
“The bottom line is this is a great spot for Dern and a terrible spot for Ansaroff.”
Jack Shore is -180 after opening at -130, but Finocchiaro is backing underdog Hunter Azure.
“Shore is the more fluid striker, but he’s a little bit of a one-trick pony,” he said. “Azure is not as refined on his feet, but he has a really structured wrestling base. For that reason, take Azure.”
Finocchiaro also is backing underdog William Knight over Da-Un Jung largely because of his advantage on the floor.
“Jung is primarily a standup power striker,” he said. “Knight is a fire hydrant. He’s short, stocky, hugely powerful and extremely explosive, and he has a solid wrestling base.
“When Knight puts Jung on the floor, it’s good night, Irene. And the South Korean is going to the floor.”