Coaching mismatch misleads

One year after he guided the New England Patriots through an unbeaten regular season, coach Bill Belichick has not been able to avoid blemishes on his team's record. But he might be doing a better job.

Stung by the loss of quarterback Tom Brady and forced to patch together a defense crippled by injuries, the Patriots are 8-5 and still in the chase to win the AFC East.

The Oakland Raiders are a disaster, as usual, and interim coach Tom Cable clearly is not their guy for the future.

The Patriots are 61/2-point road favorites over the Raiders today, and the differences in the teams are many.

"It's the biggest coaching mismatch you'll ever get," Las Vegas Hilton sports book manager Ed Salmons said.

Despite the Patriots' obvious edge, Salmons said the Raiders are his best bet today. The line is 7 at some books.

Oakland, 3-10 straight up and 5-8 against the spread, could become the only team in NFL history to lose 11 games in six consecutive seasons.

New England is off a 24-21 win at Seattle, and quarterback Matt Cassel's status is uncertain following the death of his father this week.

The Patriots' defense is depleted, as safety Rodney Harrison is out for the season and linebackers Adalius Thomas and Tedy Bruschi also are out.

"This is one game my sick mind likes, and I like the Raiders," Salmons said. "The Raiders will come to play. Their talent is not bad. But their coaching is amazing it's so bad.

"I kid that I think the Raiders' coaching equals UNLV's coaching. If Belichick coached the Raiders next year, I bet they would be a .500 team and come close to winning the division. Belichick has gotten so much out of a bad team. It's a veteran team that still knows how to win some games.

"Right now the Patriots have no running game, and they are just throw, throw, throw, and the Raiders actually defend the pass really well. The Patriots were in big trouble against a bad Seattle team last week."

Salmons analyzes the rest of today's Week 15 schedule:

• Green Bay (-21/2) at Jacksonville: The Jaguars have underachieved all year and show no signs of life whatsoever. The Packers have defensive problems. Aaron Rodgers is fine as the quarterback. You could have had Brett Favre in there this year, but that's not their problem. The line says all you need to know, with Green Bay favored on the road after three losses in a row. I don't see how you could bet either side.

• Detroit at Indianapolis (-17): The Colts are not a good team, if you look at their points scored (257) and points against (250) before their 35-3 victory over Cincinnati last week. We opened at 161/2. If you lay 17 points in this league, I'll show you someone who has no money. Dan Orlovsky is starting at quarterback for the Lions, but I like him. The Colts have no motivation, and running back Joseph Addai might not be playing because of a shoulder injury.

• Washington (-7) at Cincinnati: We opened this at 61/2. The Redskins won at Dallas and at Philadelphia in consecutive weeks, and it looked like they had a team that at least could challenge in the NFC East. But then they started doing what average NFL teams do, and that's lose games you're supposed to win. Running back Clinton Portis and coach Jim Zorn are yelling at each other. But I've tried betting the Bengals at home, and it never seems to work. It's Redskins or pass.

• Tampa Bay at Atlanta (-3): Buccaneers quarterback Jeff Garcia is questionable with a right calf injury. The Falcons have been a great story, and I think it's bet Atlanta or don't bet the game. The Falcons' Michael Turner is second in the league in yards rushing with 1,269, and Matt Ryan is awesome for a rookie quarterback.

• San Francisco at Miami (-6): It seems like a real letdown spot for the Dolphins off road wins at Buffalo and St. Louis. The 49ers are playing great since Mike Singletary took over as coach. They were heartless when Mike Nolan was there, and now with Singletary they play hard every week. I definitely would take the 49ers and the points.

• Seattle (-21/2) at St. Louis: We opened this line at 3. The more you think about it, how can a 2-11 team like the Seahawks lay points on the road? That's insane. So we lowered it to 21/2. Seattle quarterback Matt Hasselbeck is out. Either take the Rams or don't play this game.

• Buffalo at N.Y. Jets (-71/2): Quarterback Trent Edwards probably is out again for the Bills. It's a must-win game for the Jets. I never could lay this many points with the Jets, but Buffalo has not scored a touchdown in the past two weeks. It's a real tough one to call.

• Tennessee (-3) at Houston: We opened this at 31/2. The Titans are getting no respect again from the oddsmakers, for whatever reason. The Texans are playing well, but I don't know if they can handle Tennessee. Houston has lost a lot of close games -- four losses by seven points or fewer. I like the Texans' offense. Other than the 34-13 loss to the Jets, the Titans have come to play every week. I couldn't bet this either way. I'm not a big road-favorite guy.

• Pittsburgh at Baltimore (-3): We opened this at 11/2. Steelers coach Mike Tomlin deserves Coach of the Year to get this team where it is with that offensive line. They have the NFL's worst offensive line. Tomlin is the kind of guy they need to be hiring in this league, and not just get the same old crap like Dick Jauron in Buffalo and Jim Haslett in St. Louis. John Harbaugh has done a great job as a first-year coach in Baltimore. The Ravens win by playing good defense and letting the other team screw up. Rookie quarterback Joe Flacco doesn't take many chances.

You want to say that Pittsburgh, with its experience, will find a way. I guess I could take the Steelers at 3. But I wouldn't be betting the Ravens. The Steelers are a gritty team.

• Denver at Carolina (-71/2): This is a game that shows you what the oddsmakers think of this Denver team, and that's not much. The Broncos have had so many running back injuries, but coach Mike Shanahan deserves credit for keeping the team together. The Broncos went on the road and won three games -- at Cleveland, Atlanta and the New York Jets -- when they were left for dead. That is impressive. But I don't see how they possibly can slow Carolina with running backs Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams and wideout Steve Smith. I like the Panthers, who are 7-0 at home.

• San Diego (-6) at Kansas City: We opened this at 5. How San Diego's Norv Turner still is a head coach in the league, it's unbelievable. The Chargers have been whining about losing linebacker Shawne Merriman all year. But now that the Chargers are out of it, they will start winning because these games mean nothing. They will win these games because they always win in December. I would lean toward the Chargers.

• Minnesota at Arizona (-3): The total has dropped from 49 to 47. It's a game that sets up well for the Cardinals because the Vikings' weakness is the Cardinals' strength. Minnesota struggles against the pass, and Arizona can't run the ball. The Vikings are back to Tarvaris Jackson at quarterback, and he played well last week. It's a tough handicap because you're not sure of the Cardinals' motivation, but I'd say Arizona or pass.

• N.Y. Giants at Dallas (-3): Everyone understands the Cowboys need to win the game. This reminds me so much of when the Giants played at Philadelphia on Nov. 9, and the Eagles were laying 3 and the Giants won, 36-31. These are not equal teams; the Giants are a better team. I would not trust the Cowboys laying 3 in this spot.

After blowing the game last week at Pittsburgh, this is an interesting game for Dallas. I don't like Wade Phillips as a coach, and it wouldn't surprise me to see Dallas fold in this game. The Giants don't have much to play for, but they have been amazing on the road.

Compiled by Las Vegas Review-Journal sportswriter Matt Youmans.