NFL Betting Breakdown: Doug Fitz
Tennessee (0-1) at Detroit (1-0)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Lions -6, 47
Doug Fitz’s analysis: The Detroit defense routinely gives up a lot of points, but Matthew Stafford leads a normally prolific offense. Stafford should be more reliable at home than Marcus Mariota, the Titans’ second-year quarterback, will be on the road. Mariota has been making some costly mistakes.
By the numbers: The Lions were 3-0-1 last season as home favorites. … The Titans are 4-11 ATS as underdogs of 3½ to 9½ points the past two seasons. … Stafford completed 31 of 39 passes for 340 yards and three touchdowns against Indianapolis in Week 1.
Fitz’s pick: Lions by 10
Kansas City (1-0) at Houston (1-0)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Texans -2, 43
Doug Fitz’s analysis: Chiefs running back Jamaal Charles and star pass rusher Justin Houston are out. Kansas City embarrassed Houston 30-0 in last season’s playoffs, so the Texans will be looking for a little revenge. This is an improved Texans team, with quarterback Brock Osweiler surrounded by more big-play weapons.
By the numbers: Lamar Miller rushed for 106 yards last week in his Houston debut. … The Texans are 11-3 ATS as favorites the past two seasons. … The Chiefs are 7-7 ATS as underdogs the past two seasons.
Fitz’s pick: Texans by 7
Miami (0-1) at New England (1-0)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Patriots -6, 42
Doug Fitz’s analysis: Tight end Rob Gronkowski probably won’t play again for the Patriots, but it might not matter. Jimmy Garoppolo looks to be comfortable in the offense. His transition in replacing suspended Tom Brady appears smooth. The Dolphins let one get away in Seattle, and a trip to New England is the last thing they need after a tough loss.
By the numbers: New England has covered the past four meetings against the Dolphins at home. … Garoppolo completed 24 of 33 passes (72.7 percent) in his first NFL start a week ago.
Fitz’s pick: Patriots by 20
Baltimore (1-0) at Cleveland (0-1)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Ravens -6, 42
Doug Fitz’s analysis: As usual, the Browns looked horrible last week, and they lost quarterback Robert Griffin III to an injury. Josh McCown is a veteran passer who could be more effective in the Cleveland offense. The Ravens were not too impressive in their opener, either. This is a great spot for Cleveland, with most of the money showing on the road favorite based solely on the Browns’ weak Week 1 performance.
By the numbers: The Browns are 5-7 ATS versus AFC North opponents the past two seasons. … The Ravens are 6-6 ATS against division opponents the past two seasons. … The teams split two games last year, with the Ravens winning 33-27 at Cleveland.
Fitz’s pick: Ravens by 3
Cincinnati (1-0) at Pittsburgh (1-0)
Time/TV: 10 a.m., KLAS (8)
Line/Total: Steelers -3½, 48½
Doug Fitz’s analysis: This is another great spot for a division underdog. Money will show on the Steelers after their convincing win Monday night. Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown will test a Cincinnati defense that knows Pittsburgh’s personnel well.
By the numbers: The Bengals are 10-3 ATS as underdogs the past two seasons and 6-0 ATS in September games the past two seasons. … Cincinnati posted a 16-10 win at Pittsburgh last year. … Andy Dalton passed for 366 yards in the Bengals’ victory over the New York Jets last week.
Fitz’s pick: Bengals by 3
Dallas (0-1) at Washington (0-1)
Time/TV: 10 a.m., KVVU (5)
Line/Total: Redskins -3, 45½
Doug Fitz’s analysis: If the Cowboys can emotionally recover from a game they should have won last week, they have a strong shot to pull off an upset. Dallas is off a one-point loss to the New York Giants. The Redskins looked awful in all aspects Monday in a 22-point home loss to Pittsburgh. The Dallas offensive line and ground attack could control the game.
By the numbers: The Cowboys are 9-2 ATS the past two seasons playing on grass, including two wins at Washington. … The Redskins are 1-6 ATS as favorites the past two seasons. … Cowboys rookie Dak Prescott hit on 25 of 45 passes, connecting mostly on short throws, in his first start.
Fitz’s pick: Cowboys by 3
New Orleans (0-1) at N.Y. Giants (1-0)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Giants -4½, 54
Doug Fitz’s analysis: Look for New Orleans to bounce back from its wild 35-34 home loss to Oakland. The Saints played better on the road last year with a 3-5 record. The Giants went 3-5 at home, where they mysteriously tend to be emotionally flat. But this has the makings of a shootout, and the total is the highest on the board.
By the numbers: The Saints are 8-3 ATS as underdogs the past two seasons. … Drew Brees led the NFL in passing yards (423) in Week 1 and added four touchdowns. He passed for seven touchdowns in a 52-49 victory over the Giants in the Superdome last year to outduel Eli Manning.
Fitz’s pick: Saints by 3
San Francisco (1-0) at Carolina (0-1)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Panthers -13½, 45
Doug Fitz’s analysis: It’s going to be tough for the 49ers to travel to the East coast on a short week after a big Monday win. The Panthers off a loss with extra rest. The San Francisco defense looked good, but can it contain Cam Newton, who will get more protection from the officiating crew. I never recommend a double-digit favorite in the NFL, even though this is a negative spot for San Francisco.
By the numbers: The Panthers have been double-digit home favorites three times since 2013 and are 1-1-1 ATS in those games. … Cam Newton completed only 18 of 33 passes against Denver on Sept. 8. He was intercepted once and sacked three times.
Fitz’s pick: Panthers by 13
Tampa Bay (1-0) at Arizona (0-1)
Time: 1:05 p.m.
Line/Total: Cardinals -7, 50
Doug Fitz’s analysis: Jameis Winston and the Buccaneers were sharp offensively in their rout of the Falcons, but it was troubling that their defense allowed a mediocre Matt Ryan to pass for 322 yards. Carson Palmer and the Cardinals should be motivated to make amends after last week’s home loss to New England.
By the numbers: The Cardinals are 10-7-1 ATS as home favorites under coach Bruce Arians. … Winston passed for four touchdowns at Atlanta, after throwing for 22 in his rookie season.
Fitz’s pick: Cardinals by 14
Seattle (1-0) at Los Angeles (0-1)
Time: 1:05 p.m.
Line/Total: Seahawks -6½, 37½
Doug Fitz’s analysis: I seldom make a case for a big road favorite, but there was absolutely nothing on Monday night that could remotely be considered as a positive for the Rams. The Seahawks will shake off their lackluster effort in Week 1 and make a statement, and they have revenge motivation from losing both games last year to the Rams. But Seattle needs quarterback Russell Wilson to be mobile on a bad ankle.
By the numbers: The Rams are 3-7 ATS off a division game the past two seasons. … The Rams’ Todd Gurley was limited to 47 yards on 17 carries in a 28-0 loss at San Francisco.
■ Fitz’s pick: Seahawks by 10
Indianapolis (0-1) at Denver (1-0)
Time/TV: 1:25 p.m., KLAS (8)
Line/Total: Broncos -6, 46½
Doug Fitz’s analysis: Colts quarterback Andrew Luck has had success against Denver, and he’s good enough to keep this game close. However, Indianapolis has obvious weaknesses on the offensive line and all over its defense. I expect a bit of a letdown from the Broncos coming off the narrow victory over Carolina in a Super Bowl rematch.
By the numbers: Luck passed for 385 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions last week. … The Colts are 6-2 ATS as underdogs of 3½ to 9½ points the past two seasons.
Fitz’s pick: Broncos by 3
Atlanta (0-1) at Oakland (1-0)
Fitz’s pick: 1:25 p.m.
Line/Total: Raiders -4½, 48½
Doug Fitz’s analysis: Both quarterbacks — the Falcons’ Matt Ryan and the Raiders’ Derek Carr — are more than capable of putting up big numbers, but Oakland is stronger up front on both sides of the ball and should control the line of scrimmage. The Raiders gained confidence in a shootout win at New Orleans.
By the numbers: The Falcons rushed for a measly 52 yards in Week 1, while the Raiders rushed for 167 yards. … The Falcons are 6-10 ATS in road games the past two seasons and 1-9 ATS off a division game the past two seasons.
Fitz’s pick: Raiders by 10
Jacksonville (0-1) at San Diego (0-1)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/Total: Chargers -3, 47½
Doug Fitz’s analysis: The Jaguars finally look like a legitimate team on the rise, with Blake Bortles maturing as a quarterback. Jacksonville nearly knocked off Green Bay and looked good despite losing. This will be a close contest, and the Jaguars need to find a way to start winning these type of games.
By the numbers: San Diego is 3-8 ATS as a favorite the past two seasons and 5-11 ATS in its past 16 home games. … The Chargers blew a 24-3 lead in last week’s overtime loss at Kansas City.
Fitz’s pick: Jaguars by 3
Green Bay (1-0) at Minnesota (1-0)
Time/TV: 5:30 p.m., KSNV (3)
Line/Total: Packers -2½, 43
Doug Fitz’s analysis: The Vikings open their new US Bank Stadium in a battle of the top two teams in the NFC North. They also unveil a new quarterback, as Sam Bradford is expected to start for the Vikings. Bradford will need to adjust quickly with Aaron Rodgers on the other side. The circumstances in this intense division rivalry seem to point to a tight Minnesota win.
By the numbers: Adrian Peterson rushed 19 times for only 31 yards in the Vikings’ season-opening win at Tennessee … Minnesota is 12-5-1 ATS at home the past two seasons.
■ Fitz’s pick: Vikings by 2
Philadelphia (1-0) at Chicago (0-1)
Time/TV: 5:30 p.m. Monday, ESPN
Line/Total: Bears -3, 42½
Doug Fitz’s analysis: The Bears were a pathetic team at home last year (1-7), but I think they can muster enough of an effort to win and cover. This is Eagles rookie Carson Wentz’s first road game, and he’s not going to have the same easy time he had against Cleveland. I’ll go against the trends in this one.
By the numbers: Wentz went 22-for-37 for 278 yards and two touchdowns against the Browns. … Chicago is 5-11 ATS at home the past two seasons.
Fitz’s pick: Bears by 6
