UFC on Fox 25 main card matchups

A breakdown of the fights on the main card of UFC on Fox 25 on Saturday at Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum in Uniondale, New York, with picks from the Review-Journal’s Adam Hill and Heidi Fang.

Chris Weidman (13-3) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (14-2)

Class: Middleweight

Line: Gastelum minus-180

Storyline: Weidman once looked like an unstoppable force in the division. He combined elite wrestling and submission skills with an iron will and confidence that helped carry him to a 13-fight winning streak to begin his career. Then came three straight losses. He now finds himself as an underdog against an up-and-comer who has spent much of his career at a lower weight class. Gastelum has won three consecutive fights, including back-to-back knockout victories since moving back up to middleweight. While the names are impressive, a closer examination might throw up a caution flag on the runaway hype. Gastelum knocked out Tim Kennedy, who is an elite grappler with questionable striking skills, and an aging Vitor Belfort. His final fight at welterweight was a win over former champ Johny Hendricks, who was already spiraling out of contention. Gastelum has a ton of potential and could win the title at some point. But he shouldn’t be this big of a favorite over Weidman, who will have a massive home-crowd advantage.

Hill’s pick: Weidman by second-round submission

Fang’s pick: Weidman by decision

Dennis Bermudez (17-6) vs. Darren Elkins (23-5)

Class: Featherweight

Line: Bermudez minus-200

Storyline: Elkins goes by the apropos moniker “The Damage.” He can take it just as much as he can dish it. His fights all seem to go the same way, with his opponent doing everything he can to finish Elkins and then scratching his head when Elkins rallies for a victory. It’s what makes Elkins so fun to watch. Bermudez must be prepared for Elkins to withstand his attacks and then keep pushing when Elkins keeps coming forward. Bermudez is used to going the distance. Nine of his 16 wins have been by decision, and he has won all of his bouts that have gone the full three rounds.

Hill’s pick: Bermudez by decision

Fang’s pick: Elkins by third-round knockout

Patrick Cummins (9-4) vs. Gian Villante (15-7)

Class: Light heavyweight

Line: Villante minus-170

Storyline: Villante, a close friend and training partner of Weidman, is one of the UFC’s most athletic light heavyweights. But the former college wrestler and football player at Hofstra hasn’t been able to string together victories in the UFC. He has alternated wins and losses in his past six fights, and is coming off a loss. Cummins was an elite collegiate wrestler, but Villante has proven adept at defending takedowns. Villante will look to keep the action on the feet and try to turn the fight into a brawl, at which point his speed could play a bigger factor.

Hill’s pick: Villante by second-round knockout

Fang’s pick: Villante by second-round knockout

Jimmie Rivera (20-1) vs. Thomas Almeida (21-1)

Class: Bantamweight

Line: Rivera minus-200

Storyline: This could be the best fight on the card. Both fighters have sparkling records, the talent to be champions and rarely are involved in boring fights. Almeida is all pressure. He will come forward with a wide range of attacks from different angles and wreak havoc on a defensive game plan. Some of the luster was taken off the rising star when he suffered his first loss last year, but it was against Cody Garbrandt, who then went on to win the title. Almeida bounced back with another great performance to get back on track. Rivera is a strong counter-puncher, which should make this a fascinating clash of styles. He is 4-0 in the UFC and has won 19 straight fights overall.

Hill’s pick: Almeida by decision

Fang’s pick: Rivera by second-round knockout

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