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MICAH ROBERTS: Rain making things interesting in Texas

The Final NASCAR Sprint Cup practices were rained out Saturday at Texas Motor Speedway in what was to be the final preparation for Sunday’s Samsung Mobile 500. Saturday’s sessions were deemed critical — more so than other races — because of this being the first week of NASCAR’s new spoiler on a fast down force track.
 
This will be third race with the new spoiler, but Martinsville and Phoenix are short and slow in comparison to the fast, high-banked 1.5-mile Texas facility. The expectations are that the new spoiler will create more drag and slow the cars somewhat on the straight-aways, but also create more grip when diving into each turn allowing drivers to enter faster.
 
Along with Friday’s practice session, which used with both qualifying and race trim set-up, other data the teams have to go on was a two day test session held last month in Charlotte, a sister track of Texas, Las Vegas, and Atlanta that all have similar features.
 
During the two-day Charlotte sessions, a few teams stood out beginning with Richard Childress Racing’s cars where Kevin Harvick, Clint Bowyer, and Jeff Burton put on a show being near or atop the speed charts each day.

Other drivers who consistently performed very well during the test sessions were Juan Pablo Montoya, Jimmie Johnson, Jamie McMurray, and Ryan Newman
 
With Saturday’s sessions rained out, the teams this week will have to resort to using more past history set-up notes along with using the knowledge gained from the Charlotte testing. A couple of cars that have been brought out this week have a pretty rich history. When mixing in a few of the drivers natural tendencies at Texas, we can get a decent read on who should do well this week despite not having the all important reads from final practice.
 
At the top of the list is Matt Kenseth who has the best average finish all-time at Texas at 9.3. He’s currently on a run of finishing within the top-10 in six consecutive races, including two top-5 finishes last year. His Texas win in 2002 came from the 31st position, the furthest back any driver has won from at Texas. This week he’ll be starting from the 28th position.
 
As for the season, Kenseth is the only driver to have finished in the top-5 of both races held at the similar 1.5-mile tracks of Las Vegas and Atlanta. The task of getting to the winners circle this week was given to the same chassis that finished fifth in Las Vegas.
 
Juan Pablo Montoya didn’t do anything stellar in Friday’s practice with race trim on and managed to get the 12th fastest time when the team used qualifying trim, but all anyone needs to know is that he is bringing his absolute best car which seldom fails him. He’s using the same chassis this week that had three top-5 finishes last season, but is probably most remembered for the dominating performance at Indy last season that saw him dominate the entire race, leading 116 laps, until being penalized late reducing him to an 11th place finish. Most recently, Montoya finished third with the car in Atlanta back in March.
 
Whatever Montoya and his team learned at Charlotte last month with the new spoiler can’t hurt either because he was one of the three fastest cars in three of the four sessions over the two days. We say it lot, because he always looks good in practice, but he really does look to have one of his better chances to win his first oval race in the Cup series this week.
 
Jimmie Johnson brought a chassis with him that has ran only once all-time, but the one start was at Las Vegas and resulted in a win. If we are discussing any high-banked 1.5-mile track, Johnson always has to be one of the focal points of the discussion just because he’s been so good on all of them. But if there was one track out of the four similar facilities for Superman, Texas would be the closest thing to kryptonite. He’s had only one win over his career of 50 wins there with a couple of uncharacteristic 38th place finishes. However, he still has the third best average in track history doing so at a 10.8 finish pace in 13 starts.
 
Much like Johnson, Kurt Busch will be bringing a chassis with only one start to it’s credit, and it too resulted in a win. Busch won at Atlanta in early March with this weeks car, his second win in the last three Atlanta races. In the last race held at Texas last fall, Busch also captured the checkers with a late rally and a little bit of luck.
 
The luck that Busch received was given to him by the fuel tank of his brother, Kyle Busch, who had led 232 laps before coming three laps shy of the win. Kyle Busch looked impressive in qualifying trim Friday and will start seventh, but what’s more important is that his team looks cohesive over the last two races. Kyle has been in position to win late at both Martinsville and Phoenix, but didn’t get some of the luck needed like his brother got at Texas last year.
 
Jeff Burton won the first Cup race ever at Texas Motor Speedway in 1997 while driving for Jack Roush. Since driving for Richard Childress, Burton has continued his strong runs at Texas which include winning this race in 2007. Beginning with that 2007 win, Burton has finished in the top-10 in five of the last six races held there.
 
During the second day of Charlotte testing, Burton lit up the charts with the fastest times of the two-day sessions. This week he’ll be debuting a brand new car.         
 
Burton’s teammate Clint Bowyer wasn’t as fast at Charlotte, but was still consistently near the top-10 for both days. During Friday’s practice, Bowyer looked like one of the faster cars on the track with race trim on and was just as competitive with qualifying trim. Over his career at Texas, Bowyer has an average finish of 12.8 with a best of fourth-place coming in the fall of 2008.
 
Mark Martin didn’t look good at Charlotte, didn’t look good in Friday’s practice, and hasn’t run well of late, but he is bringing last years winning chassis from Chicagoland. Martin won the second Texas race ever while driving for Jack Roush and finished fourth and sixth respectively last season.
 
Even though Martin knows Kasey Kahne is taking over the No. 5 car eventually, Martin has no animosity whatsoever and is genuinely happy for both Kahne and Rick Hendrick. From all aspects of the owner, crew, and driver, this is not the typical lame-duck driver situation where sometimes we see a driver getting bargain priced parts for their final runs with the team.
 
Kahne probably wishes he could run with Hendrick right now, or at least run exclusively on 1.5-mile tracks if he has to finish the season driving a Richard Petty car. Kahne has had a crummy year mired No. 26 in points, but his car comes alive at tracks like Las Vegas, Atlanta, Charlotte, and hopefully Atlanta this week.
 
The lone positives for Kahne in 2010 have been a ninth and Vegas and fourth in Atlanta, along with good testing at Charlotte. Look for it to continue this week despite being a lame duck driver, because Kahne is the best chance Petty has to show they can run fast in big races which will help sell sponsorship for next year whoever the driver may be, if any at all.
 
In 2006 Kahne became the only driver to win at Texas race from the pole. It remains his one and only Texas win and it also is the last time he has finished within the top-10 at Texas. He’s a good long shot to look at this week in the 20 to 1 range.
 
Tony Stewart’s week started with a bang just as it ended last week. His teammate, Ryan Newman, won at Phoenix for their first win in the No. 39 car and on Friday, Stewart won a pole for the first time in 155 races. Things definitely look up at at Texas, things have been good for Stewart. He has one career win on the track and finished fourth and sixth last season.
 
Greg Biffle had the most dominant car in this spring race last season, but settled for third giving the race to Jeff Gordon. Biffle practiced well on Friday in qualifying trim and does have a 2005 Texas win to his credit and he‘ll be using a new chassis to get the job done this week.
 
Jeff Gordon had gone the entire season 2008 season with getting a win before finally breaking through in this race last season. Gordon has now gone 36 races without a win since then, but it’s not that he hasn’t had the chances. In fact, he should have won the last two races at Martinsville and Phoenix, but operator error kept him from getting at least one.
 
Gordon has gotten wiser and smarter with his age and grown as a person with the addition of his family, but it has definitely taken it’s toll on the track. Gordon still has competitive cars every week and contends for points weekly, but that hunger and desire from the old Gordon to win everything in sight is gone. Getting taken at Phoenix on the restart last week in the final laps was the perfect example. The 1998 version of Jeff Gordon wins that race in his sleep.
 
Gordon’s win total has suffered through a series of changes with his team over the years since Ray Evernham left and it doesn’t help that he gave away 50 possible wins by setting Jimmie Johnson up in the luxurious life, but the next time he steps up to a green-white-checker restart and he’s near the front, I’d like to see the old-younger Jeff Gordon temperament make an appearance.
 
The most interesting driver from a betting standpoint this week is Paul Menard who is listed at 500 to 1 at the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book. Menard has the tools and basis to be a quality top-10 contender this week based on his great fifth-place finish in Atlanta and equally good test session at Charlotte. The possibility of poor weather and rain playing into the mix makes Menard even more interesting. Last year we had two first time winners get the checkers thanks to mother nature. In both instances the cars may not have been the best, but were in the right place at the right time. It’s worth at least a $10 investment.  
 

Driver Quotes
 
Kyle Busch’s thoughts on the difference between the wing and the spoiler from the Charlotte test as it pertains to the first 1.5-mile oval race this weekend in Texas?
“Not a whole lot of difference, but definitely some change. Whether it’s change for the good or the bad yet, we won’t know until we get into a pack at a race. My initial thoughts after the Charlotte test would be that it adds a lot of grip to the car, makes the cars comfortable to drive but, to me, it might make it harder in traffic. I’m very curious to see how it changes the handling during a race, since this weekend will really be the first big test for the spoiler on an aero track.”
 
Matt Kenseth’s crew chief Todd Parrott on racing at Texas Motor Speedway:
“There is a new tire for this weekend at Texas, as well as the fact that we’re running the spoiler for the first time, so there are a lot of unknowns this weekend. The guys in our engineering and wind tunnel programs have put in countless hours to make sure that we have as much data as we head into this 1.5-mile high-banked track. We’re taking the same car we ran at Las Vegas and I have a lot of confidence in that car since we ran up front all day. I love Texas and have been fortunate enough to have won some races there, so I’m optimistic for this weekend.”
 

Roberts Weekly Driver Ratings
Each week I will provide an analysis of my top rated drivers on how well they will do in the race based on the following criteria:

  • Practice sessions leading up to the weekend’s Sprint Cup race
  • Chassis information on what was brought to each track by each team, good or bad
  • Driver tendencies at certain tracks
  • Recent and overall histories for each driver at each track
  • Decipher poor past results with what really happened, good car — or bad luck?

These final ratings should help assist in final betting strategies with the Las Vegas books or match-up and prop plays, as well as help in NASCAR fantasy leagues.
 
Micah Roberts Top 10 Driver Ratings
Samsung Mobile 500
Texas Motor Speedway

Sunday, April 18, 2010 – 12:16 pm (PDT)
 

Rating    Driver     Odds            Practice 1       Qualifying      Charlotte Test*     Atlanta Finish**  
 1. Matt Kenseth 15/1                     28th                 28th                   20th                      2nd
Track best 9.3 average finish; six straight Texas top-10’s. Using Vegas’ fifth-place chassis.
      
 2. Juan Pablo Montoya 18/1         12th                  21st                   1st                        3rd 
Using chassis that finished third in Atlanta; same one that dominated Indy last year.
 
 3. Jimmie Johnson 4/1                  5th                    4th                    2nd                       12th
2007 fall Texas winner; bringing same chassis that won in Vegas. 10.8 average Texas finish.  
 
 4. Kurt Busch 10/1                        17th                  11th                  18th                       1st
Won last Texas race; won last two of three on like-track of Atlanta. Using March’s Atlanta chassis.
 
 5. Jeff Burton 15/1                        14th                   6th                    1st                        20th
Won first inaugural Texas race in 1997; two time Texas winner. Brand new chassis this week. 
 
 6. Kyle Busch 9/1                           6th                    7th                    9th                       25th
Led race high 232 laps in last Texas race before running out of fuel; great early practice session.
   
 7. Clint Bowyer 15/1                       4th                    8th                    7th                       23rd
Texas average finish of 12.8; using chassis that finished eighth at California. Great Charlotte test.
 
 8. Kevin Harvick 18/1                    24th                  19th                   2nd                       9th 
New Chassis this week; One of the best at Charlotte test sessions. Finished fifth at Texas last fall.
 
 9. Kasey Kahne 20/1                     20th                   5th                   11th                       4th
Only driver to win from pole at Texas (2006); 6.5 average finish on two 1.5-mile tracks in 2010.
 
10. Tony Stewart 9/1                       2nd                    1st                   22nd                     13th  
Won 2006 fall Texas race. Finished fourth and sixth at Texas in 2009. First pole in 155 races.
 
Final two Texas practices washed away by rain 
 * Best Charlotte (new spoiler)Test Session From March 23-24
** Atlanta March 7 finish on track very similar to Texas
                            
Micah Roberts, a former race and sports director, has been setting NASCAR lines in Las Vegas since 1995. He currently writes for various outlets covering all sports. He can be reached at MM.Roberts7Gmail.com.
 
 
 
NASCAR ODDS TO WIN
Samsung Mobile 500 (Odds Adjusted after Qualifying)
Texas Motor Speedway

Sunday, April 18, 2010
 
JIMMIE JOHNSON 4
MARK MARTIN 12
JEFF GORDON 9
KYLE BUSCH 9
DENNY HAMLIN 15
JUAN MONTOYA 18
TONY STEWART 8
CARL EDWARDS 15
GREG BIFFLE 12
KURT BUSCH 10
KASEY KAHNE 20
CLINT BOWYER 15
KEVIN HARVICK 18
JEFF BURTON 15
BRIAN VICKERS 60
MATT KENSETH 15
DALE EARNHARDT JR 25
JOEY LOGANO 30
RYAN NEWMAN 30
MARTIN TRUEX JR 60
DAVID REUTIMANN 60
JAMIE McMURRAY 50
DAVID RAGAN 100
BRAD KESELOWSKI 100
MARCOS AMBROSE 100
SAM HORNISH JR 60
AJ ALLMENDINGER 200
ELLIOTT SADLER 500
PAUL MENARD 500
BOBBY LABONTE 1000
REGAN SMITH 1000
SCOTT SPEED 500
TRAVIS KVAPIL 1000
FIELD 100
 
Courtesy of the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book

Texas Motor Speedway Odds & Ends
NASCAR Media Services
 
History
• Construction began in 1995.
• The first NASCAR race was a NASCAR Nationwide Series event on April 5, 1997.
• The first NASCAR Sprint Cup race was on April 6, 1997.

Notebook
• There have been 18 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series races at Texas Motor Speedway, one per season from 1997 through 2004 and two races per year since 2005.
• Four drivers have competed in all 18 Texas races: Jeff Burton, Jeff Gordon, Bobby Labonte and Mark Martin.
• Jeremy Mayfield was the first pole winner, in 1998. Qualifying for the inaugural race in 1997 was canceled.
• Jeff Burton won the first NASCAR Sprint Cup race.
• 12 drivers have scored poles, led by Dale Earnhardt Jr., Bobby Labonte, Ryan Newman and Jeff Gordon with two.
• 15 drivers have won races, led by Carl Edwards, with three. Jeff Gordon won at Texas for the first time, last season. Gordon has won at every track he has run except Homestead-Miami Speedway.
• 14 of 18 races have been won from a top-10 starting position. Only one has been won from the pole (Kasey Kahne in 2006).
• Matt Kenseth started 31st en route to his victory at Texas in 2002, the deepest in the field that a race winner has started.
• Both Jeff Burton (1999) and Dale Earnhardt Jr. (2000) scored their first NASCAR Sprint Cup Series win at Texas.
• Five of the last seven races have had a margin of victory under one second.
• Matt Kenseth (9.3) is the only active driver to average a top-10 finish.
• Roush Fenway Racing leads all owners in victories, with seven. Hendrick Motorsports is second, with three wins.
• There has been one season sweep, by Carl Edwards in 2008. Edwards is looking to break a 43-race winless drought.

NASCAR in Texas
* There have been 27 NASCAR Sprint Cup races in Texas.
* 72 drivers in NASCAR’s three national series (all-time) have their home state recorded as Texas.
* There have been seven race winners from Texas in NASCAR’s three national series:
 
Texas Motor Speedway Data
Race #: 8 of 35 (4-18-10)
Track Size: 1.5 miles
Race Length: 501 miles
• Banking/corners: 24 degrees
• Banking/straights: 5 degrees
• Frontstretch: 2,250 feet
• Backstretch: 1,330 feet

Driver Rating at Texas
Tony Stewart 106.1
Matt Kenseth 105.0
Carl Edwards 99.7
Kyle Busch 98.6
Jimmie Johnson 96.1
Denny Hamlin 95.6
Greg Biffle 95.4
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 94.4
Kurt Busch 93.8
Jeff Gordon 91.4
Note: Driver Rating compiled from 2005-2009 races (10 total) at Texas.

Qualifying/Race Data
* 2009 pole winner: David Reutimann (190.517 mph, 28.344 secs.)
* 2009 race winner: Jeff Gordon, 146.372 mph, 4-5-09)
* Track qualifying record: Brian Vickers (196.235 mph, 27.518 seconds, 11-3-06)
* Track race record: Carl Edwards (151.055 mph, 11-6-05)

Pit Window: Every 50-55 laps, depending on fuel mileage.

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