No chase pressure for Kyle Busch — It’s all about wins now
When Kyle Busch blew an engine with 45 laps to go last week at Fontana, he said disappointingly, “On to another year, It’s over” — knowing that any hopes he had of winning the NASCAR Sprint Cup Championship had just been eliminated. The 35th-place finish dropped him two spots to ninth in points, 187 behind leader Jimmie Johnson.
No one has ever come back to win the Chase from as far back as Busch stands with six races to go, a deficit that is almost the equivalent to the points awarded for winning a race.
But there is good news on the horizon for Busch following Friday’s final practice session in preparation for Saturday night’s Bank of American 500 race at Charlotte. Busch and his crew got a brand new chassis clicking to a degree that hasn’t been seen out of any their Toyotas during practice on the 1.5-mile high banked tracks since February in Las Vegas. He had the seventh-fastest single lap during happy hour, but it’s his average speeds that set him apart from anything he’s done this season. Busch had the fastest five-, 10- and 15-consecutive lap average speeds, which is a great indicator that crew chief Dave Rogers has something special set up for Busch to pilot.
Doing well at Charlotte is nothing new for Busch. He’s averaged a finish of 4.5 over his last six starts, but it still remains a track that he’s winless at, something he’s not too happy about because it's his favorite on the circuit.
The lone question mark for Busch this week — beyond not having his engine blow up — is how he reacts in his first race since being virtually eliminated from the Chase. A similar instance occurred In 2008 when Busch was leading in points heading into the Chase and by the fourth race of the 10-race format he was sitting in 11th-place. The fifth race was Charlotte, and he went on to have his best run of the final 10 races by finishing fourth.
The only difference from then to now is that Busch was the huge favorite entering the Chase and his failure early in crunch time was embarrassing. It took him a few weeks to regroup from being knocked off as king of the hill, but it was "Charlotte, the reliable" that got him going again. Look for a similar situation to occur this week with far less anxiety hanging over him than was the case in 2008. He has the best car, and some argue that he’s the best driver, so the two together should be a pretty good combination Saturday night.
Others To Watch:
Kurt Busch decided not to bring either one of his chassis that he won with at Charlotte in May or at Atlanta in March. All season long, Busch had been saying that he was saving those cars for the Chase and then went a completely different direction and brought a brand new car instead. Based on the final practice sessions, Busch didn’t miss a beat. He came in with strong practice times similar to what he ran at Charlotte in May. Crew chief Steve Addington has a knack for these tracks and could probably set up anything on four wheels to run well at Charlotte.
Jimmie Johnson didn’t have a good two days of practices. In fact, it was one of his worst of the year. However, in his last race that he practiced poorly at — Atlanta — he finished third. He’s a six-time winner at Charlotte, who won this race last year. His greatness is that he doesn’t feel any pressure and runs machinelike every week. It’s his biggest asset as a driver and probably why he’ll win his fifth straight title.
Greg Biffle had the fastest average speeds for 10 consecutive laps in Friday’s early practice and was right behind Kyle Busch during happy hour. He also won the last 1.5-mile race run at Kansas two weeks ago. Look for a good effort as well from his teammate, Carl Edwards, who had the fastest single lap and average speeds during happy hour.
Tony Stewart didn’t practice particularly well Friday, but his strength is that he’s hard-charging in the Chase, fresh off a win at California. He moved up five positions with the win and is 107 points behind Johnson. It’s a long shot that he'll catch the leader, but his chances are greatly enhanced by using him using his winning Atlanta chassis from September this week.
Roberts Weekly Driver Ratings
Each week I will provide an analysis of my top rated drivers on how well they will do in the race based on the following criteria:
• Practice sessions leading up to the weekend’s Sprint Cup race
• Chassis information on what was brought to each track by each team, good or bad
• Driver tendencies at certain tracks
• Recent and overall histories for each driver at each track
• Decipher poor past results with what really happened, good car — or bad luck?
These final ratings should help assist in final betting strategies with the Las Vegas books or match-up and prop plays, as well as help in NASCAR fantasy leagues.
Micah Roberts Top 10 Driver Ratings
Bank of America 500
Charlotte Motor Speedway, Concord, N.C.
Saturday, Oct. 16 — 4:46 p.m. (PDT)
Rating Driver Odds Practice 1 Qualifying Practice 2 Practice 3
1. Kyle Busch 9/1 3rd 6th 25th 7th
4.5 average in last six Charlotte starts; best 10 consecutive lap average speeds during final practice.
2. Kurt Busch 9/1 22nd 15th 4th 3rd
Won the All-Star race and Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte in May, also won at Atlanta in March.
3. Kasey Kahne 15/1 11th 25th 1st 4th
Three wins in last nine Charlotte starts, the last in 2008; 11.6 average finish in 13 starts.
4. Greg Biffle 15/1 18th 22nd 3rd 10th
Using new chassis; had best 10 consecutive lap average speeds during second practice.
5. Jimmie Johnson 3/1 12th 10th 15th 17th
Had worst combined practice speeds on a 1.5-mile track this season; six wins at Charlotte.
6. Carl Edwards 9/1 19th 2nd 13th 1st
Using new chassis; had top average speeds for entire final practice. Finished 16th in May.
7. Jeff Gordon 12/1 33rd 1st 32nd 27th
Struggled in practice; five-time winner who starts from pole. Average finish of 15.4 in 35 starts.
8. Jamie McMurray 30/1 13th 27th 28th 5th
Won first career race at Charlotte in 2002; using chassis with two top-five finishes in 2010.
9. Tony Stewart 12/1 6th 29th 17th 32nd
Using same chassis that won at Atlanta last month; average finish of 13.4 in 23 starts.
10. Mark Martin 35/1 4th 5th 12th 11th
Four-time winner making his 52nd Charlotte start; using new car this week.
Note: Charlotte’s 1.5-mile high banked speedway is similar to its sister tracks of Las Vegas, Atlanta and Texas. Atlanta’s Sept. 5 race is the best barometer to use in handicapping this week’s race.
Odds courtesy of the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book.
Micah Roberts, a former race and sports book director, has been setting NASCAR lines in Las Vegas since 1995. He writes for multiple publications covering all sports. He can be reached at MM.Roberts7@Gmail.com.
DRIVER QUOTES
GREG BIFFLE ON RACING AT CHARLOTTE: “Well, we’re going to just go out and do our best the rest of the season, pretty much like we have all year. We will still go out there every week and try to get the No. 16 3M Ford into victory lane and gain as many positions in the points as we can. This is our last night race of the season and it would obviously be awesome to win in Charlotte. We had a good run during the Coke 600 before I got loose and hit the wall. I feel pretty confident that we should have a good run this weekend with the way we’ve been running at the mile-and-a-half tracks.”
CARL EDWARDS ON RACING AT CHARLOTTE: “We went into California thinking that would be the race that could put us near the points lead, but we had trouble with a part in the distributor. Now we’ve got six races left to run the way we know we can run. If we can get a couple wins and a couple solid top fives, and maybe if Jimmie (Johnson) can have a bit of trouble then it can be anybody’s race. We need to rally this weekend at Charlotte.”
KYLE BUSCH ON RACING AT CHARLOTTE: “Charlotte is my favorite racetrack for a lot of reasons. Just growing up watching races on TV, I loved watching the All-Star race under the lights and the 600 with all the sparks flying and all the guys going after hard-fought, hard-racing wins. The Nationwide Series has been good to me there. The Truck Series has been pretty good to me there, too. But a Cup Series win has eluded me there. I finished third in the 500 (fall Charlotte race) in 2007 and third in the 600 in May. It’s been kind of a struggle there for me until recently, so we’re definitely getting closer than I was back when I first started racing at Charlotte. I think I’ve only finished three races there without having problems or without wrecking or having something happen. In that race, I was two or three laps down, in 32nd or something like that. I think I have something like six top-10 finishes in a row there going into this weekend, so I hope my luck is turning around a bit.”
CHARLOTTE BANK OF AMERICA 500 ODDS & ENDS
Compiled by Mike Forde
NASCAR Media Services
History
· Construction began in 1959.
· The track’s first NASCAR Sprint Cup race was June 19, 1960.
· The track was repaved midseason in 1994.
· The track name changed from Charlotte Motor Speedway to Lowe’s Motor Speedway in 1999. It changed back to Charlotte Motor Speedway for the 2010 season.
· The track was repaved again before the 2006 season.
Notebook
· There have been 103 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series points races at Charlotte Motor Speedway, two races per yearsince the track opened in 1960. In 1961, there were two 100-mile qualifying points races held the week beforethe May race. The first six fall races at Charlotte were 400-mile events (1960-65).
· 37 drivers have won poles, led by David Pearson with 14.
· Fireball Roberts won the pole for the first race, in 1960.
· David Pearson had 11 straight poles at Charlotte from the fall of 1973 through 1978.
· Ryan Newman leads all active drivers in poles, with nine. Jeff Gordon has seven.
· 43 drivers have won races, led by Bobby Allison, Darrell Waltrip and Jimmie Johnson, with six each.
· Kurt Busch won his first Charlotte race in May, at the Coca-Cola 600. Also the NASCAR Sprint All-Star Race winner, Busch looks to become the first driver to sweep the All-Star Race, the Coke 600 and the Bank of America 500 in the same season.
· Joe Lee Johnson won the first race, in 1960.
· There have been 13 back-to-back victories, including three consecutive by Fred Lorenzen (fall 1964 and both 1965) and four straight by Jimmie Johnson (both in 2004 and 2005).
· A sweep has occurred eight times, including each season from 2004-2006.
· 14 races have been won from the pole, the last by Jimmie Johnson last October.
· Jimmie Johnson won the 2003 Coca-Cola 600 from the 37th starting position, the furthest back a race winner has started.
· A number of active drivers earned their first win at CMS: Jeff Gordon, Matt Kenseth, Bobby Labonte, Jamie McMurray, Casey Mears and David Reutimann. Inactive drivers David Pearson, Buddy Baker and Charlie Glotzbach also got their first series win at Charlotte.
NASCAR in North Carolina
· There have been 511 NASCAR Sprint Cup races in North Carolina.
· 421 drivers in NASCAR’s three national series (all-time) have their home state recorded as North Carolina.
· There have been 44 race winners from North Carolina in NASCAR’s three national series; 28 in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series:
Driver NSCS NNS NCWTS
Richard Petty 200 0 0
Dale Earnhardt 76 21 0
Lee Petty 54 0 0
Ned Jarrett 50 0 0
Junior Johnson 50 0 0
Herb Thomas 48 0 0
Buck Baker 46 0 0
Bobby Isaac 37 0 0
Dale Jarrett 32 11 0
Jim Paschal 25 0 0
Benny Parsons 21 0 0
Speedy Thompson 20 0 0
Buddy Baker 19 0 0
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 18 23 0
Harry Gant 18 21 0
Bob Welborn 9 0 0
Kyle Petty 8 0 0
Morgan Shepherd 4 15 0
Bill Blair 3 0 0
Gwyn Staley 3 0 0
Brian Vickers 2 3 0
Jimmy Pardue 2 0 0
Billy Myers 2 0 0
Phil Parsons 1 2 0
Donald Thomas 1 0 0
Richard Brickhouse 1 0 0
Buddy Shuman 1 0 0
Leon Sales 1 0 0
Jack Ingram 0 31 0
Tommy Houston 0 24 0
Sam Ard 0 22 0
Robert Pressley 0 10 2
Scott Riggs 0 4 5
Dennis Setzer 0 2 18
Hank Parker Jr. 0 2 0
Johnny Rumley 0 2 0
Ed Berrier 0 1 0
Stephen Leicht 0 1 0
Justin Labonte 0 1 0
Andy Houston 0 0 3
Timothy Peters 0 0 2
Austin Dillon 0 0 2
Shane Hmiel 0 0 1
Ricky Hendrick 0 0 1
Charlotte Motor Speedway Data
Race #: 31 of 36 (10-16-10)
Track Size: 1.5 miles
· Banking/Corners: 24 degrees
· Banking/Straights: 5 degrees
· Frontstretch: 1,980 feet
· Backstretch: 1,500 feet
Driver Rating at Charlotte
Jimmie Johnson 115.3
Kyle Busch 104.9
Kasey Kahne 100.4
Joey Logano 100.2
Mark Martin 91.1
Jeff Gordon 89.1
Matt Kenseth 89.1
Jeff Burton 88.4
Kurt Busch 87.6
Greg Biffle 85.5
Note: Driver Rating compiled from 2005-2010 races (11 total) at Charlotte Motor Speedway.
Qualifying/Race Data
2009 pole winner: Jimmie Johnson (192.376 mph, 28.070 secs.)
2009 race winner: Jimmie Johnson (137.658 mph, 10-17-09)
Qualifying record: Elliott Sadler (193.216 mph, 27.948 secs., 10-13-05)
500-mile race record: Jeff Gordon (160.306 mph, 10-11-99)
Estimated Pit Window: Every 50-55 laps, based on fuel mileage.
LAS VEGAS HILTON SUPER BOOK NASCAR ODDS TO WIN
BANK OF AMERICA 500
CHARLOTTE MOTOR SPEEDWAY
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 16, 2010
JIMMIE JOHNSON 3
KYLE BUSCH 7
JEFF GORDON 12
DENNY HAMLIN 12
JEFF BURTON 20
KEVIN HARVICK15
MATT KENSETH 20
CARL EDWARDS 9
GREG BIFFLE 9
KURT BUSCH 9
MARK MARTIN 35
TONY STEWART 12
CLINT BOWYER 20
JUAN MONTOYA 30
KASEY KAHNE 15
JOEY LOGANO 35
RYAN NEWMAN 40
MARTIN TRUEX JR 60
JAMIE McMURRAY 30
DALE EARNHARDT JR 60
BRAD KESELOWSKI 100
DAVID REUTIMANN 30
REED SORENSON 300
DAVID RAGAN 100
AJ ALLMENDINGER 75
MARCOS AMBROSE 500
SAM HORNISH JR 300
ELLIOTT SADLER 300
REGAN SMITH 500
PAUL MENARD 100
SCOTT SPEED 1000
BOBBY LABONTE 1000
TRAVIS KVAPIL 5000
FIELD 200
