Cleveland (1-8) at Detroit (1-8)
Time: 10 a.m. Line: Lions -3½ Total: 38½
Facts: Mike Furrey is the Browns’ leading receiver with 21 catches after getting six Monday against Baltimore. … Detroit has been putting the game in rookie QB Matthew Stafford’s hands. Over the past two weeks the Lions have had at least twice as many passes as runs. That never happened the first seven games. … Cleveland, which churned out 160 yards in a 16-0 loss to Baltimore, averages 214.3 yards a game. No team has been that horrible since the 1946 Boston Yanks.
Analysis: It got so bad for Cleveland on Monday that QB Brady Quinn’s two Hail Mary throws didn’t have a prayer of landing inbounds. Detroit, meanwhile, is one of the few teams that won’t take the Browns for granted.
Forecast: Lions 28, Browns 7
Buffalo (3-6) at Jacksonville (5-4)
Time: 10 a.m. Line: Jaguars -8½ Total: 42½
Weather: High 70s, 60 percent chance of rain
Facts: The spread might be inflated based on two late interception-return TDs against Buffalo in last week’s 41-17, coach-killing meltdown at Tennessee. … The Bills promoted defensive coordinator Perry Fewell to replace head coach Dick Jauron. Fewell’s unit has yielded 173 rushing yards a game, matching the worst norm for a team the past four years.
Analysis: Over the past decade, teams making a midseason coaching swap are 1-13 against the line in their first game under the new guy. And it’s not as if Buffalo owner Ralph Wilson had his thinking cap on and made this switch during a bye week.
Forecast: Jaguars 35, Bills 13
Pittsburgh (6-3) at Kansas City (2-7)
Time: 10 a.m. Line: Steelers -10 Total: 40
Weather: High 50s
Facts: For the first time in four games, Pittsburgh isn’t facing a division leader. … Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger had his worst completion percentage of the season (50.0) last week against Cincinnati and his receivers averaged only 8.7 yards a connection. … K.C.’s Dwayne Bowe, the team’s leading receiver, is starting a league-mandated four-game suspension.
Analysis: The Chiefs, with an NFL-low one rushing TD, face the NFL’s stiffest run defense. That puts the burden on QB Matt Cassel. Good luck to the league’s 23rd-rated passer, especially without his top receiver.
Forecast: Steelers 30, Chiefs 7
Indianapolis (9-0) at Baltimore (5-4)
Time: 10 a.m. Line: Colts -1 Total: 44
TV: CBS (8)
Facts: The Colts have won six in a row in the series, dating to 2002, going 5-1 against the line, and even winning on the road in the 2006 playoffs 15-6 without a TD. … Baltimore QB Joe Flacco had three 300-yard games and 11 TD passes through six weeks, but has only one TD pass in the past three and hasn’t reached 200 yards. … The last time the Colts were 9-0, in 2006, they lost on the road against a 5-4 Dallas team.
Analysis: The Colts should remain focused after last week’s 35-34 comeback victory against New England. Last year they followed a victory over the Patriots by upsetting the Super Steelers on the road.
Forecast: Colts 21, Ravens 14
Atlanta (5-4) at N.Y. Giants (5-4)
Time: 10 a.m. Line: Giants -6½ Total: 46
Facts: The visiting team has won the past 12 games in this rivalry, including a 27-7 Atlanta victory in the Meadowlands in 2003 as an 11-point underdog. … Atlanta RB Michael Turner (questionable, ankle), who had a Week 9-high 166 yards against Washington, had 111 yards on nine carries at Carolina last week before going down. His backup is Jason Snelling, averaging 4.9 yards per rush. … Giants QB Eli Manning (probable) insists his injured foot is fine after the bye week.
Analysis: Atlanta is leaking oil. Jason Elam has been butchering field-goal tries, Matt Ryan has the worst completion percentage for a QB on a winning team and the defense has yielded a league-worst 12 TD drives of 80-plus yards.
Forecast: Giants 34, Falcons 14
San Francisco (4-5) at Green Bay (5-4)
Time: 10 a.m. Line: Packers -6½ Total: 42½
TV: None RADIO: KWWN-AM (1100)
Weather: Low 50s
Facts: The Packers allowed four more sacks last week against Dallas, raising its league-worst total to 41. The 1986 Eagles hold the NFL mark with 104. … San Francisco snapped a four-game skid with a 10-6 spread-beating victory against Chicago two Thursdays ago. … In 2008, teams coming off midseason Thursday games were 12-6 against the line the next week, including six straight-up victories as an underdog. … Mike Singletary’s 49ers are 3-0-1 against the spread on the road.
Analysis: If the Packers play as inspired as they did last week in smothering the Cowboys, this one won’t be close. But that’s not going to happen, especially with the running tenacity of 49ers RB Frank Gore (5.2 yards per carry).
Forecast: Packers 20, 49ers 17
Seattle (3-6) at Minnesota (8-1)
Time: 10 a.m. Line: Vikings -11 Total: 46
Facts: The Seahawks blew a 14-0 lead in a 31-20 loss at Arizona last week, a league-high seventh time the past three years Seattle has lost after having a double-digit edge. … Minnesota’s Brett Favre, the league’s top-rated QB, will be facing a team tied for eighth-worst in defensive passing rating. Favre already has met four foes listed in the bottom six. … QB Matt Hasselbeck sabotaged Seattle’s comeback attempt in the closing minutes against the Cardinals by throwing interceptions at the Arizona 25 and 3.
Analysis: The Seahawks’ starting cornerbacks, Marcus Trufant and Josh Wilson, have concussions. Good grief! Vikings WR Sidney Rice might get another 200 yards.
Forecast: Vikings 38, Seahawks 20
Washington (3-6) at Dallas (6-3)
Time: 10 a.m. Line: Cowboys -11 Total: 41½
TV: Fox (5)
Facts: The Cowboys are the only team in the league not to begin a possession inside the foes’ 27-yard line. Conversely, Green Bay has done it 10 times. … Three teams have seen their announced home attendance drop each game this season: St. Louis, Cleveland and even Dallas, which had 105,000-plus for its home opener, but only 80,000-plus in its most recent game in Jerry’s Palace. … Washington has the league’s No. 5-rated defense, but is tops when it comes to allowing yards through the air.
Analysis: Dallas’ swift Felix Jones, who had 40- and 56-yard runs in September, hasn’t been the same since his knee injury. And with Marion Barber running in cement, the Redskins’ defense should keep this close.
Forecast: Cowboys 19, Redskins 16
New Orleans (9-0) at Tampa Bay (1-8)
Time: 10 a.m. Line: Saints -11½ Total: 51
Weather: High 70s
Facts: Tampa Bay’s Josh Freeman will be the third rookie QB to start against the Saints this year. New Orleans beat the Lions’ Matthew Stafford and the Jets’ Mark Sanchez, intercepting each three times. … The Saints, who beat St. Louis last week 28-23, have failed to cover in their past four victories. … Flashback: In 1977, the Bucs beat the Saints 33-14 as an 11-point underdog, breaking their infamous 26-game losing streak.
Analysis: The Bucs have shown a spark since that Week 9 victory against Green Bay and should put a scare into an unbeaten team that has committed 14 turnovers the past four games. And don’t hold your breath for Saints RB Reggie Bush (questionable, knee).
Forecast: Saints 31, Buccaneers 30
Arizona (6-3) at St. Louis (1-8)
Time: 1:05 p.m. Line: Cardinals -9 Total: 47
Facts: Arizona is 4-0 on the road and seems likely to snap a 26-season streak without a winning road record. … St. Louis RB Steven Jackson has averaged 5.8 yards a carry in totaling 414 yards the past three games during the Rams’ 1-2 turnaround. He also had nine catches last week against New Orleans. … Arizona won last week at home against Seattle despite 136 yards in penalties. That’s the highest total in the league the past two years.
Analysis: There have been four TD drives of 90-plus yards in the NFL the past two weeks, with three of them coming against Arizona. Yikes!
Forecast: Rams 24, Cardinals 21
N.Y. Jets (4-5) at New England (6-3)
Time: 1:15 p.m. Line: Patriots -10½ Total: 45
Weather: Low 50s
Facts: During the Patriots’ perfect run in 2007, Tom Brady had 33 TD throws at this stage en route to a league-record 50. He’s got 19 now. … During one second-half stretch last week, the Jets ran 30 plays and Jacksonville three. But the Jags still won, 24-22. … The Patriots are 2-7 at home against the line against the Jets during the Bill Belichick era, even losing 17-14 in 2006 as a 10½-point favorite. That game came after a loss to Indianapolis.
Analysis: If the Patriots’ defense was miffed after Belichick took that fourth-and-2 gamble last week, it should have shown its moxie by keeping Indy from scoring from the 28. New England gets a shot at redemption against a Jets team that’s turning soft in the defensive middle.
Forecast: Patriots 28, Jets 10
Cincinnati (7-2) at Oakland (2-7)
Time: 1:15 p.m. Line: Bengals -9½ Total: 36
Weather: High 50s
Facts: In May, Cincinnati was the longest shot on the board to win a division at 10-1, according to odds posted by The Venetian. … Cincinnati WR Chad Ochocinco apparently is so overconfident he didn’t bother to mail insulting material to Oakland DBs this week. Or maybe he couldn’t afford it. … Raiders QB JaMarcus Russell has been planted on the bench for the rest of 2008. It’s Bruce Gradkowski to the rescue. He has career totals of nine TD throws and 15 interceptions.
Analysis: This hasn’t been a fun trip for the Bengals in the past, going 0-9 lifetime in Oakland. Plus, with Cincinnati coming off fiercely emotional victories over Baltimore and Pittsburgh, there’s a question about what’s left in the adrenaline reservoir. Not to mention that workhorse RB Cedric Benson (questionable, hip flexor) might not play.
Forecast: Bengals 22, Raiders 20
San Diego (6-3) at Denver (6-3)
Time: 1:15 p.m. Line: Chargers -3 Total: 42½
TV: CBS (8) RADIO: KWWN-AM (1100)
Facts: When these teams met in Week 6, the Chargers lost as a 4-point choice at San Diego. Denver has since gone on a three-game losing streak and the Chargers have won four in a row. … Denver went scoreless after QB Kyle Orton (questionable, ankle) went down just before the half in Washington last week. Chris “No Spleen” Simms, who hasn’t started a game in three years, filled in. … San Diego, behind rejuvenated RB LaDainian Tomlinson, has scored TDs on five of its past six first-and-goal possessions after converting only four times in its previous 14.
Analysis: If Orton doesn’t play, the Broncos aren’t going to have a parachute to break their free fall. Simms is exasperatingly slow making decisions in the pocket, and when he does throw his floaters draw a crowd.
Forecast: Chargers 27, Broncos 13
Philadelphia (5-4) at Chicago (4-5)
Time: 5:20 p.m. Line: Eagles -3 Total: 45
TV: NBC (3) RADIO: KWWN-AM (1100)
Weather: High 40s
Facts: Chicago’s Jay Cutler threw five drive-crushing interceptions in 49ers territory last week. He had five such interceptions all of last season while with Denver. … The Eagles started only 5-4 in 2006 and 2008 and still made the postseason. But RB Brian Westbrook (out, concussion) is seeing specialists about his head. … The Bears had won nine in a row at home until their 42-21 loss to Arizona two weeks ago.
Analysis: Some of Cutler’s throws last week brought back memories of the old AFL when the Houston Oilers’ George Blanda used to play as if he were wearing a blindfold. The Eagles’ defense should befuddle Cutler even more.
Forecast: Eagles 27, Bears 16
Tennessee (3-6) at Houston (5-4)
Time: 5:30 p.m. Line: Texans -4½ Total: 48
TV: ESPN (30) RADIO: KWWN-AM (1100)
Facts: Tennessee RB Chris Johnson, who had 197 yards rushing in a 34-31 loss to Houston in Week 2, leads the league with 1,091. He’s going to have to ratchet up his average by 9 yards a game to reach 2,000. … Houston RB Steve Slaton has more yards after the catch than total yards (354/324). … Tennessee has given up a league-high 23 touchdown passes, with four by Houston’s Matt Schaub.
Analysis: Since 2002, teams coming off a Week 10 bye have gone 17-3 against the line. Also, Texans fans will be excited to welcome back a playoff contender on Monday night.
Forecast: Texans 31, Titans 21
Last week: 3-11-1 vs. spread; 5-10 straight up
Season total: 65-76-3 vs. spread; 82-62 straight up