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For Raiders, not landing Marshawn Lynch would come at cost

Updated April 24, 2017 - 9:59 pm

ALAMEDA, Calif. — Acquiring Marshawn Lynch would come at a cost for the Raiders, who would likely spare a draft pick in any trade with the Seahawks to obtain his rights. There also is the matter of Lynch’s contract.

Not acquiring him, though, may come at a greater one.

The NFL draft is near, but the intrigue for the Raiders does not start once on the clock Thursday with the No. 24 overall selection. It is here in the days and hours before it. Still, Lynch is not a Raider. If not one by Thursday, the window for a union could close, as the club can ill-afford to ignore a glaring running back need during the three-day event.

For months, Oakland has geared toward this draft as an opportunity to address its defense.

That has not changed.

But one way or another, a new running back is expected to come this week. The club has expressed interest in that mystery back being Lynch, an Oakland native with whom it must reach contractual terms before it can broker a trade with Seattle. The Raiders are not known to covet a different veteran on the market, their preferred fallback plan believed to come via the draft.

These two options, Lynch or a rookie, carry distinct costs.

The variance underscores the situation’s significance as draft day looms.

To acquire Lynch, the trade itself would not require a hefty price tag; Seattle’s demand likely would be no richer than a late-round selection. The Raiders own the Seahawks’ seventh-round pick from a 2016 trade for safety Dewey McDonald, so the solution theoretically could be as simple as shipping that pick back to them.

The draft investment for a rookie running back would be much steeper.

A seventh-round rookie couldn’t be counted upon to fulfill a meaningful role this season. In the past five drafts, 19 running backs were taken in the seventh. Only one, Bryce Brown for the Philadelphia Eagles in 2012, exceeded 100 carries in his first NFL season. The Raiders, who lost Latavius Murray in free agency, would need to draft their back in an earlier round.

It almost certainly wouldn’t be the first — if GM Reggie McKenzie wanted to devote a $5.7 million signing bonus at the position, Lynch would be on the roster by now — but what about the second or third? The fourth? The fifth?

This hidden cost is the crux of the matter.

Not acquiring Lynch seemingly will force the Raiders to invest a higher draft pick for a rookie than they’d have spared to Seattle in a trade. Additionally, any second- or early third-day pick used on a running back is a pick not used on a linebacker, interior defensive lineman, nickel cornerback or overall defensive depth. These are pressing roster needs.

That is not to overlook the cost of Lynch’s contract.

A midround pick certainly will be cheaper than Lynch, and that is no small matter for the Raiders. They are adhering to a cash budget, as they prepare to sign quarterback Derek Carr and guard Gabe Jackson to contract extensions in the coming months. It is unclear if a larger deferral in either deal’s signing-bonus payout would assist the club’s cash situation, such creative avenues the type that could be explored.

The Raiders are now on the clock.

For weeks, they’ve sought to land Lynch, who is currently off volunteering in Haiti. They haven’t yet. The 31-year-old possesses as much control over the situation as anyone in the Bay Area, but if the Raiders truly believe he can fill their roster void as their missing piece, it is they who have more to lose.

On the field, the defense needs all the draft resources it can manage. Off it, the Raiders could use all the goodwill an Oakland native would provide during a difficult, drawn-out relocation period to Las Vegas.

Acquiring Lynch this week would come at a cost.

So would not.

Michael Gehlken can be reached at mgehlken@reviewjournal.com. Follow @GehlkenNFL on Twitter

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