Why are some NFL teams so bad? It starts with the QB

Raiders coach Antonio Pierce recently was asked what he noticed about the three teams ahead of his in the AFC West.

Pierce, as blunt as they come, wasted no time answering.

“Quarterback play,” he said. “Bottom line, quarterback play.”

Pierce might as well have been speaking for every losing team across what has increasingly become a league of haves and have-nots. Eight NFL teams have won three or fewer games this season, including the 2-10 Raiders.

The overwhelming common denominator among those teams is poor quarterback play. Six of those clubs have quarterbacks who rank in the bottom 10 in overall QB rating (QBR).

Other than the Carolina Panthers and New England Patriots, who are starting young quarterbacks taken in the first three picks of the past two drafts, and the Jacksonville Jaguars, who are contractually locked into Trevor Lawrence on a five-year, $275 million contract, each of them will look to upgrade through the draft, free agency or the trade market in the offseason.

Meanwhile, if the season ended today, six of the 14 teams that would make the playoffs boast quarterbacks with top-10 ratings. Seven others have quarterbacks within the top 20 in QBR. Only C.J. Stroud, whose Houston Texans sit atop the AFC South, is out of the top 20. And his 53.2 rating is 21st.

Clearly, there is a correlation between winning and good quarterback play.

Yes, football is the ultimate team sport, and as the 4-8 Cincinnati Bengals have shown, having a quarterback such as Joe Burrow, who ranks third in QBR, guarantees nothing with a defense ranked 31st.

But there is no doubt that winning is difficult without good quarterback play and borderline impossible in terms of competing for the Super Bowl without great quarterback play.

Acknowledging that reality is the easy part. The far more elusive aspect is actually reaching into the college ranks and securing and developing a quarterback capable of ensuring even moderate success, let alone the kind necessary to hoist a Lombardi Trophy.

Between the bad luck of never being able to select a high-end quarterback and a volatile return rate that produces more busts and below-average quarterbacks than successful ones, filling the most important position on a football field can be an arduous ordeal.

Just ask the Raiders, who have been on a 22-year odyssey trying to find a Super Bowl-caliber quarterback. Or the New York Jets, who have nothing to show for the two quarterbacks they invested top-three picks in the past seven drafts?

“Identifying, projecting, acquiring and developing college quarterbacks into thriving NFL quarterbacks has and will more than likely always be as difficult a task as there is in the NFL,” Los Angeles Rams general manager Les Snead said.

Why is it so hard?

So many factors contribute to the difficulties of evaluating NFL-worthy college quarterbacks and developing them into viable NFL players.

There are the physical traits: arm strength, accuracy, timing and mobility. But then there are the more subtle traits unavailable to the naked eye.

“So much of what you have to evaluate is stuff you don’t see on tape,” an NFL personnel executive said. “Their drive, their ability to problem solve, mental toughness to overcome and deal with the criticism and the pressure of the position. The obsession with knowing the offense inside and out.”

None of this is new, of course.

“It’s always been hard,” Raiders offensive coordinator Scott Turner said. “There are certain things that you look for, but there’s so many factors involved. Obviously the physical traits, but there’s so much, I don’t want to say pressure, but there’s so much that goes into playing quarterback and being under a microscope, and it’s not just what you do on the football field, and that’s a lot.”

What makes it even more perplexing is that contemporary players’ knowledge and ability levels are far more advanced now than they were 20 years ago.

High school quarterbacks are throwing the ball more than ever and benefit from the proliferation of spring and summer seven-on-seven games that provide them with competitive live reps on a year-round basis. At the college level, quarterbacks are throwing the ball at record rates.

That’s far different from two decades ago when most college quarterbacks operated out of two-back sets and handed the ball off more than they threw it. NFL evaluators had to evaluate in a vacuum then.

Information and teaching points have never been more accessible, thanks to the internet, multiple quarterback coaches and experts offering online film sessions. Peyton Manning’s film breakdowns of NFL quarterbacks on ESPN’s “Detail” have become appointment viewing for young quarterbacks. Former NFL quarterback J.T. O’Sullivan hosts the hugely popular “The QB School” on YouTube.

Contemporary quarterbacks have also credited the Madden video football game with teaching them about coverage schemes and how to attack them. Technology has advanced over the years, providing young quarterbacks with tools such as virtual reality headsets and software to simulate defenses, timing and speed.

It’s no surprise, then, that young quarterbacks such as Burrow, Stroud, Los Angeles Chargers star Justin Herbert, Washington Commanders rookie Jayden Daniels and Denver Broncos rookie Bo Nix were immediate contributors.

“There are plenty of examples of highly successful young quarterbacks,” one NFL personnel executive said. “You can’t overlook the wins.”

Nevertheless, the hit rate for high-end quarterbacks has not improved over the years.

“It’s always been difficult to evaluate this position,” an NFL front office executive said. “And those unseen traits separate the ones who can and the ones who can’t.”

Flawed process, in some cases

Much of what goes right or wrong for a young quarterback comes down to the same age-old principles.

“It still depends on the person and the situation,” Snead said. “The situation they are leaving and coming into.”

Along with new collective bargaining rules that have reduced the time players can practice and be present in their team facilities, young quarterbacks are beholden to the infrastructure of the teams that draft them. Depending on the coaching, personnel and stability of the franchise, it can set them up for success or failure.

Some young quarterbacks are forced to play before they are ready out of necessity. If they don’t have adequate help around them, that often leads to struggles, impatience and stunted growth.

“Quarterbacks don’t get enough time to develop,” an NFL personnel executive said. “There is pressure to play right away. College quarterbacks are taking Football 101, and everyone wants to rush them to Football 500.”

The Jets moved on from Sam Darnold, whom they drafted third overall in 2018, after just three seasons. The Cleveland Browns drafted Baker Mayfield first overall in that same draft. They got rid of him within four years.

Now in Minnesota, Darnold has the 10-2 Vikings in the thick of the NFC playoff race. Mayfield’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers are tied for first place in the NFC South after winning the division and a playoff game last season.

Amazingly, both players were on the same Panthers roster in 2022.

“A case of giving up on guys too early,” an NFL personnel executive said.

At their previous stops, their teams didn’t have the patience or wherewithal to commit and execute a development plan.

Darnold had two head coaches and two offensive coordinators in his three seasons with the Jets. His replacement, Zach Wilson, drafted No. 2 overall in 2021, played under two offensive coordinators during his three seasons in New York.

It’s hard enough to master one NFL offensive scheme. But to abruptly switch to another makes the process even more difficult. And if success isn’t happening overnight for high draft picks such as Wilson and Darnold, it’s not long before they are shown the door.

It’s completely counterintuitive but happens all the time.

As opposed to Kansas City Chiefs star Patrick Mahomes, who developed behind Alex Smith during his rookie season of 2017. Or Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love, who learned behind Aaron Rodgers for two seasons before taking over in 2023. Baltimore Ravens star Lamar Jackson waited nine games behind Joe Flacco before getting his first start as a rookie in 2018.

Mahomes is a three-time Super Bowl champion. Jackson is a two-time MVP and three-time Pro Bowler. Love has the Packers on the cusp of the playoffs for the second straight season.

“I think just understanding that every case is different,” Turner said. “Some guys are going to come in, and because of maybe the team around them or just how they’re wired, they’re going to catch fire. And then there are some other guys that may not be, and it takes them a little longer.”

Contact Vincent Bonsignore at vbonsignore@reviewjournal.com. Follow @VinnyBonsignore on X