College basketball must fill void left by NBA lockout

It's better to be a big man on campus than an unemployed pro. Watching the ugliness of the NBA lockout from afar, Jared Sullinger surely has no doubts about the wisdom of his decision to return to Ohio State.

The same goes for Harrison Barnes, who has no reason to second-guess his call to stick around at North Carolina.

Sullinger and Barnes might be the nation's top two players. Both sophomores are back in school, and this college basketball season will be far more entertaining because of it.

That's especially encouraging at the moment, because for basketball bettors, the college game has to fill a void left by the NBA. It helps when a player such as Sullinger, a 6-foot-9-inch, 265-pound center, is filling the lane for the Buckeyes instead of waiting out labor negotiations.

The college season opened Monday for a handful of teams, but it's full speed ahead today when North Carolina plays Michigan State on the deck of an aircraft carrier in San Diego.

"If the NBA season is canceled, I think the books are really going to feel it those last couple of months when there's nothing else to bet," Las Vegas Hilton sports book director Jay Kornegay said. "We really rely on the NBA during those months of April, May and the first part of June."

Translation: Not many of us are missing the NBA in November. The full focus of bettors and oddsmakers is on college hoops, so get out the Blue Ribbon yearbook and start studying for the exam. There are about 350 teams to cover.

Instead of hitting the book to bet late-night Los Angeles Lakers games, we need to know the Big West Conference better than ever.

"The NBA represents anywhere from 10 to 15 percent of the overall handle for us," Kornegay said. "We think about half of that is going to transfer to the college game. With that said, we're going to have to concentrate more on college hoops because there will be a lot more attention and a lot more action on these games, whether it's the top teams or the second-tier teams that we book."

The Hilton will post first- and second-half lines on every college game, and Kornegay said he's considering adding more in-game wagering options.

Todd Fuhrman, senior sports book analyst for Caesars Entertainment, has taken the unusual step of posting regular-season conference win totals for 24 teams, a list that includes North Carolina, Ohio State and UNLV.

The Rebels play 14 league games instead of 16 with the Mountain West Conference reduced to eight teams, yet their win total is 11½ (Over minus-150). If UNLV splits with New Mexico and San Diego State, it would need to sweep the rest of the conference schedule to go over the total, and that's unlikely.

During the first two months of the season, while oddsmakers are adjusting power ratings and posting some soft opening numbers, bettors can beat the game. It's easier than banging your head against the wall while trying to handicap the NFL.

Here are five fearless predictions:

■ Wisconsin senior Jordan Taylor will establish himself as the nation's top point guard, and the Badgers will be the second-best team in the Big Ten Conference behind the Buckeyes.

■ The Missouri Valley Conference will produce two teams, Wichita State and Creighton, capable of pulling an upset in the NCAA Tournament.

■ New Mexico will win 28 games, including the postseason, and take the Mountain West regular-season title. UNLV will cut down the nets at the conference tournament and finish with 27 wins.

■ With five starters returning, UNR will win the Western Athletic Conference and pile up 22 wins.

■ As for the aforementioned Big West, Orlando Johnson will make UC Santa Barbara the team to beat, ahead of Long Beach State and Cal State Fullerton.

Finally, when the smoke clears in April, Sullinger and Ohio State will see Barnes and North Carolina at the Final Four in New Orleans.

And then we can focus on betting the NBA playoffs in May and June.

■ CLOSING NUMBERS -- One great thing about college basketball is an actual tournament decides the national champion. As for football, we're left with the Bowl Championship Scam.

What a shame it would be if Alabama gets another shot at Louisiana State for the title. No team that loses on its home field (while failing to score a touchdown) and fails to win its conference should play for a national championship.

I went 3-2 last week, including a loss with Alabama, and stand 24-27-2 for the season. Five plays for Saturday (home team in CAPS):

PURDUE (+7½) over Ohio State; Michigan (-1) over ILLINOIS; KANSAS STATE (+5) over Texas A&M; TEXAS TECH (+17) over Oklahoma State; Oregon (+3½) over STANFORD.

Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts the "Las Vegas Sportsline" weeknights at midnight on KDWN-AM (720) and thelasvegassportsline.com.