Hughes’ value soars for Yanks, wagerers

It's not breaking news at this point, almost two months into a marathon season, but the New York Yankees are no longer referring to right-hander Phil Hughes as their fifth-best starting pitcher.

CC Sabathia is still the ace and Andy Pettitte remains a rock in the rotation. Hughes, a mystery man out of spring training, is finally answering the questions about his potential.

"I think Hughes' problem was between his ears, and he's solved that now," handicapper Dave Cokin said.

The Gulf of Mexico oil spill will get solved long before the puzzle between A.J. Burnett's ears gets pieced together. But at least the Yankees can count on Hughes to deliver as they try to chase down the Tampa Bay Rays in the American League East.

If looking to bet on the Yankees, Hughes has become a starter to ride in the right spots. If Burnett is on the mound, and the Yankees are overpriced by the oddsmakers, look the other way.

Betting baseball is driven by the starting pitchers, but it's really just the beginning of the handicapping process.

"A lot of times the prices get overadjusted because of the starting pitchers," said Cokin (jimfeist.com). "Baseball is all about getting value. The mistake most baseball bettors make is they focus only on starting pitchers and basically ignore everything else."

Bet on streaks, not against them. Handicap bullpens and how they were used the previous day. Look for dominant trends in pitching and team matchups. And don't expect the Los Angeles Dodgers to produce much offense while Andre Ethier is injured.

When judging starting pitchers, look closely at their WHIP (Walks plus Hits per Inning Pitched). A great WHIP is anything around 1.00; a poor one is about 1.50 or higher. Use the WHIP to determine if a pitcher's ERA is misleading.

In seven starts, Hughes is 5-0 with a 2.25 ERA. He has allowed 28 hits and 15 walks in 44 innings. He also has 42 strikeouts, and his WHIP (0.98) is another indicator that his numbers are legit.

By contrast, Burnett has a 1.42 WHIP, and Seattle ace Felix Hernandez has a 1.46 WHIP.

Hughes, the Yankees' first-round draft pick in 2004, throws a four-seam fastball that touches 96 mph and he's also effective with a cutter, changeup and knuckle curve. "His stuff is ridiculous," Cokin said.

I expected a breakout season from Hughes, who is only 23 and hitting the upside of the learning curve.

Discarding four obvious aces -- Sabathia, Roy Halladay, Tim Lincecum and Ubaldo Jimenez -- here are some others to watch, even if a few don't qualify as breaking news:

■ David Price, Tampa Bay: The 6-foot-6-inch lefty is nasty, and he's no secret anymore. Price (6-1, 1.81 ERA, 1.08 WHIP) is not cheap to bet at home, but he can be had at value on the road against quality opponents.

"He has arrived," Cokin said. "You might want to start polishing up a Cy Young Award for that guy, and more than one."

The rest of the Rays staff -- Matt Garza, Jeff Niemann, James Shields and Wade Davis -- is full of promise.

■ Jon Lester, Boston: The spotlight is normally on Josh Beckett, but Lester is better. He's 4-2 with a 3.47 ERA and 1.14 WHIP after a complete-game 6-2 victory over Minnesota on Thursday. Lester has a tendency to be a slow starter, so look for him to take off.

■ Adam Wainwright, St. Louis: Chris Carpenter is considered the Cardinals' ace, but Wainwright (6-2, 2.49 ERA, 1.02 WHIP) is often a better bet. Also keep an eye on the emerging Jaime Garcia.

■ Josh Johnson, Florida: A workhorse at 6-7 and 250 pounds, Johnson (4-1, 2.68 ERA, 1.00 WHIP) has the strongest of the Marlins' young arms.

■ Mat Latos, San Diego: As with Johnson and Wainwright, Latos is a big right-hander. He's just 3-3 with a 3.28 ERA after eight starts, but his 0.99 WHIP ranks in the National League's top five. Also watch the development of Clayton Richard, a former backup quarterback at Michigan.

Cokin, who handicaps baseball as well as anyone else on a daily basis, said, "I hate the Yankees."

But even he sees a lot to like in Hughes, and there are several pitchers similar to him on the rise.

Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907.