Angst in Arcadia as Santa Anita seeks answers in horse deaths
Santa Anita is one of horse racing’s most hallowed tracks, but lately the news from the Great Race Place has been nothing but glum.
Fields in the winter-spring meet that began on Dec. 26 have been short, which dampens the betting handle.
That led racing secretary Steve Lym to announce this week that 2-year-old races will begin on April 28, months earlier than last year, to boost the number of horses on track.
But far worse by any estimation is the fact that horses have been dying at an alarming rate at the track — 19 since opening day, including 2017 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile winner Battle of Midway in a training accident last weekend.
No one can say for certain what’s behind the sickening toll, which is already more than half the total of 37 horses that died at the track from July 2017 through June 2018 — but suspicion has focused on the unusually rainy weather, which has dumped 11½ inches of rain so far in February and appears likely to deliver more this weekend.
That prompted track management to “peel back” the track’s cushion on Tuesday and Wednesday so that a thorough examination of the base could be conducted. But after the exam, Santa Anita issued a news release late Wednesday that the racing surface is “100 percent ready” for training and racing based on the evaluation of Mick Peterson, a track soil and safety expert from the University of Kentucky.
Peterson said Wednesday that the radar verified all of the materials — silt, clay and sand — as well as moisture content, are consistent everywhere on the track.
The lack of an answer is disconcerting, to say the least, and it ensures that the track will be operating under rigorous scrutiny in the coming week as track management also continues to try to address the issue of short fields.
“Inventory is our No. 1 priority, but track safety trumps everything,” is how Mike Willman, the track’s director of publicity, put it to me this week.
#RJhorseracing featured races
The #RJhorseracing handicappers are off to Gulfstream Park, where 11 3-year-olds looking to take a big step toward a spot in the Kentucky Derby will face off in Saturday’s $400,000 Fountain of Youth Stakes (Grade 2) at 1 1/16th miles. We’re also tackling the last race on a stellar card at the Florida track, the $200,000 Mac Diarmida Stakes (Grade 2).
In the Fountain of Youth, the crowd ‘cappers are looking askance at the morning line 9-5 favorite Hidden Scroll, skeptical of the 14-length victory over a sloppy track in his debut. Instead, they’re throwing their lot in with Vekoma (7-2), the only graded stakes winner in the field, and forecasting Bourbon War (10-1) and Hidden Scroll will take down the minor awards.
This week’s featured comment comes from a handicapper who did not pick Vekoma, who has not raced since winning the Grade 3 Nashua Stakes in early November, but fears him.
“Might need one, or might be this good,” wrote Mark “the Godfather” Wayman.
Regular readers know I hate backing favorites, but I can’t help myself this time.
Hidden Scroll’s debut was a thing of beauty and the final time was more than 1½ seconds faster than older horses ran in the Fred W. Hooper Stakes on the same card.
Maybe the slop moved him up or maybe he was beating nobody, and he certainly faces a steep class test here, but my eyes tell me this is a special horse.
I’ve got Vekoma and Code of Honor (9-2) in the minor placings.
In the Mac Diarmida, a 1 3/8ths-mile turf marathon, the handicapping crew is again taking a stand against a 9-5 favorite. They strongly prefer the streaking Zulu Alpha (3-1), over the aforementioned chalk, Channel Maker, with Hunter O’Riley (10-1) in third.
I’m in danger of getting voted out of the long shot union but I think the classy Channel Maker can rebound against competition that is much softer than he’s been facing.
I’ve got Zulu Alpha in second and Village King (8-1) in third.
Mike Brunker’s horse racing column appears Friday. He can be reached at mbrunker@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-4656. Follow @mike_brunker on Twitter.
Ellis Starr's Fountain of Youth Stakes analysis
Looking at the factors that suggest how much some horses will improve from race to race as well as their pedigree to become one of the top 3-year-olds this spring, I've landed on Global Campaign. Not only do the chart caller's comments "wrapped up" describe his two authoritative wins in two starts to date (the most recent at the distance of the Fountain of Youth), the colt is bred to be a star. He's by Curlin and out of the mare Globe Trot, who has produced two stakes winning horses to date, including Bolt d'Oro. His Equibase Speed Figures of 98 then 99 are lower than other horses in the race, most notably likely favorite Hidden Scroll, but when considering how much more Global Campaign may have in the tank, I expect a graded stakes-winning effort from the colt in the Fountain of Youth.
Bourbon War was also pretty impressive winning at Gulfstream at the distance of the Fountain of Youth in his most recent race. He earned a very strong 107 speed figure, which might be one of the best at this time of year if not for the 115 figure Hidden Scroll earned there eight days later. However, Hidden Scroll earned his big figure on a sloppy track and in a one-turn mile race and has yet to run two-turns, whereas Bourbon War has three races under his belt and is making his second start following seven weeks off, and so has lots of room to improve. As a son of Tapit, who has sired many 3-year-old graded stakes winners over the last few years, including 2016 Fountain of Youth winner Mohayman, there's little doubt Bourbon War has what it takes to perform well enough to win this race.
Hidden Scroll absolutely dominated in a 13 horse field in his debut in late January. He took the lead shortly after the start and widened until geared down in a 14-length victory. The 115 figure he earned is the best figure I've ever noted a 3-year-old earning in the first half of the year. As a son of Hard Spun, the added distance and two turns of the Fountain of Youth should not pose a problem. However, Hidden Scroll has only raced once and he has never raced around two-turns. Trainer Bill Mott is not known for winning with a high percentage of horses in their racing debuts, so the win by Hidden Scroll bodes well for another top effort. Additionally, Mott had good success with Hofburg last year when he entered the maiden winner to run second in the Florida Derby. As such, we should not discount the chances of Hidden Scroll dominating once again.
Everfast is a horse likely coming in under the radar who must be respected, in my opinion. After winning his debut last August over 7 furlongs, Everfast didn't do much in five races including three stakes. However, in his second race as a 3-year-old, Everfast finished second of nine in the Holy Bull Stakes at odds of 128 to 1. The 102 speed figure was decent enough compared to most of the main contenders in the Fountain of Youth and it is reasonable to project he will run better in his third start off the layoff.
Ellis Starr is the national racing analyst for Equibase. Visit the Equibase website for more on the race or to purchase handicapping products.
