Breeders’ Cup breakdown with picks for ‘Future Stars Friday’

DEL MAR, Calif. — Halloween is the ideal day to get the horse racing extravaganza known as the Breeders’ Cup World Championships underway, as agonizing defeats, shocking surprises and maybe some tasty treats await horseplayers who choose to test their handicapping skills on some of the most challenging races of the year.

Over the course of two days, the Breeders’ Cup will hand out more than $34 million in purses and awards in 14 races on dirt and turf, all Grade 1s. In many cases, the races at Del Mar will decide year-end divisional championships and likely the Eclipse Award for Horse of the Year.

Day one — known as “Future Stars Friday” — features five races for 2-year-olds, beginning with the Juvenile Turf Sprint (estimated post time 2:45 p.m.) and concluding with the Juvenile Turf (5:25). Sandwiched between will be the Juvenile Fillies, the Juvenile Fillies Turf and the Juvenile, which will crown the early favorite for next year’s Kentucky Derby.

Here are my thoughts on Friday’s races with picks, along with morning-line odds for highlighted contenders.

$1 million Turf Sprint, 5 furlongs on the turf

In the first several years of its existence, the Turf Sprint was a bright spot for U.S.-based horses, with horses conditioned by trainers Wesley Ward and Todd Pletcher taking down the first four runnings. Since then, however, European horses have extended their dominance in the longer turf races to this mad dash, winning the last three contests.

Favored True Love, trained by the legendary Aidan O’Brien of Ireland, stands out among the European entrants, though most of her races have been at 6 furlongs rather than 5 and the filly has finished second in three of her four starts against the boys. With that in mind, I’ll look for a mild upset to start the day with Havana Anna, a filly trained by O’Brien’s son Donnacha, who finished second, three-quarters of a length behind True Love in her first try over a firm turf course.

My choices: Havana Anna (6-1); True Love (7-2); Schwarzenegger (5-1)

$2 million Juvenile Fillies, 1 1/16 miles on the dirt

Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert has two entrants in the race, but most of the wagering will likely focus on morning-line favorite Explora, who has won two of three starts, including the Grade 2 Oak Leaf Stakes at Santa Anita last out.

East Coast challenger Tommy Jo, trained by another Hall of Famer in Pletcher, is likely to be the strong second choice based on her 3-for-3 record, including a victory via disqualification in the Grade 1 Alcibiades at Keeneland in her last start.

I’m hoping that means I might get a better than morning-line price on Percy’s Bar, the filly who finished in front of Tommy Jo in the Alcibiades only to be taken down because of a bumping incident in the stretch. She was taken out of her usual stalking game plan in that race, being sent to the front after drawing the rail. I expect her to return to a stalking trip and nail the favorites late.

My choices: Percy’s Bar (9-2); Explora (5-2); Tommy Jo (7-2)

$1 million Juvenile Fillies Turf, 1 mile on the turf

Aidan O’Brien has the heavy favorite in this race, but his multiple Group 1 winner Precise drew the difficult post 13, meaning rider Christophe Soumillon will have to work out a trip from the far outside or risk losing lots of ground. She might be able to do it, but I’m looking for a bomb with Japan entrant Switch in Love. Her trainer, Yoshito Yahagi, has won with two of his three Breeders’ Cup starters and finished an unlucky third with his other, Forever Young, in last year’s Classic. Obviously he has a pretty good idea of what it takes to win these races, and that’s good enough for me in this wide-open contest.

My choices: Switch in Love (20-1); Precise (6-5); Queen of Hawaii (12-1)

$2 million Juvenile, 1 1/16 miles on the dirt

Odds-on favorite Ted Noffey, 3-for-3 under the tutelage of Pletcher, is strictly the one to beat. That said, he’ll be racing for the first time at Del Mar and also is drawn to the outside and risks losing valuable ground on the first turn.

The Baffert-trained Brant, a $3 million purchase by Zedan Racing Stables this year, appears to be the main danger, with enough speed to get to the front early and the pedigree to keep running in his first start around two turns.

My choices: Brant (5-2); Ted Noffey (4-5); Blackout Time (5-1)

$1 million Juvenile Turf, 1 mile on the grass

Aidan O’Brien has won this race a record seven times, including the last three. He will saddle favored Gstaad, a Grade 1 winner in Britain, who, like his stablemate two races previous, drew a disadvantaged outside post (No. 14).

I might be penalizing the favorite too much, but I’ll try to beat Gstaad with Outfielder, a U.S.-based runner trained by Ward who will be making his first start around two turns and switching from dirt to turf. Ward is exceptional with that move when using it in stakes races, and Outfielder is drawn much better in post 3.

My choices: Outfielder (10-1); Gstaad (9-5); Hey Nay Nay (8-1)

Mike Brunker is a retired Review-Journal editor and horse racing writer who now spends a good amount of time lounging poolside with the Daily Racing Form.