A reader wrote to remind me that another "must read" blog for political junkies in Nevada is that of Review-Journal political writer Molly Ball. And I could not agree more. You can find Molly’s excellent reporting here.
Molly’s latest offering delves into the new Zogby poll that shows Barack Obama and John McCain tied in Nevada (39/38 respectively). She also cites last week’s Reno Gazette-Journal poll that also showed Obama up by one point. The two polls contrast with the latest Review-Journal poll that showed McCain up 46/39.
Two things to say about these polls (other than if you like your political reporting straight and unvarnished, don’t miss Molly’s blog). First, if I had to to call Nevada today, I’d say the state will go to McCain by a narrow margin. The wild card, I think, is Obama’s ability to get out the vote in the Hispanic community. If he can energize working-class Hispanics, he could win Nevada. But so far, that’s been a tall order for any politician to do. On top of that, when it comes to supporting key Hispanic issues, McCain’s track record is better than Obama’s (much to the chagrin of the Republican Party in general, I might add). Second, historically the Review-Journal polling has been more accurate than all others. In fact, the Review-Journal’s accuracy in polling big and small races, statewide and by district, has been as spot-on as any polling can be. It will be interesting to see what future polling holds … and you can count on the Review-Journal to bring it to you.