UNDER THE CAP: DAVE COKIN Mountain West looking solid for three NCAA Tourney bids

Let the projections begin!

January is about to turn into February, which means it's officially "bubble time" in college basketball. That means lots of last-four-in and last-four-out discussion, and loads of water cooler conversation for college hoop fans.

After garnering a quartet of invites last season, the Mountain West Conference is looking at three bids right now. San Diego State and BYU are virtual locks, and I have UNLV comfortably in the field through the results of last weekend. Colorado State and New Mexico are next in line, but neither is really close at this point and they're destined for a lesser tourney barring a dramatic rally.

Here's a preview of this Saturday's MWC hookups:

BYU by 10 over New Mexico

The Cougars are off the big clash with San Diego State and have to guard against going flat as they head to Albuquerque. That should not be a real problem, however, as BYU no doubt recalls last year's sweep at the hands of the Lobos. New Mexico has really struggled since opening the season 10-1. It's not that the Lobos are weak in any one particular category, but they're simply not outstanding at anything this season. Too much talent on the side of the visitors, and I expect BYU to win fairly handily.

San Diego State by 18 over Wyoming

The Aztecs occasionally have trouble staying focused. Off the BYU game, this is a prime spot for a huge letdown facing what is clearly the weakest team in the league. The fact that San Diego State has already exhibited a tendency to letdown against soft opponents is the only thing that might allow the Cowboys to avoid getting completely blown out. If SDSU comes to play, this one could get ugly.

For the rest of Dave's picks, check out his blog at RebelNation.net.