Lake Mead levels could drop below historic lows by mid-2027
Lake Mead, Southern Nevada’s largest water source, could fall below historic lows by mid-2027, according to a recent projection by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation.
The water resource management agency projects Lake Mead’s water elevation could drop to about 1,038 feet by the end of June 2027, according to a 24-month forward-looking study released Tuesday. That is roughly 2 feet lower than the historic lows seen in July 2022.
Lake Mead’s water elevation was at about 1,054 feet as of Thursday.
Bronson Mack, spokesperson for the Southern Nevada Water Authority, said the Bureau’s monthly study gives regional water managers an understanding of how water use and precipitation and runoff may influence the elevations of the river’s reservoirs.
“That can be operationalized into conservation programs and water resource management programs and things that water managers need to have, data that they need to have in order to plan for the future,” he said.
Near-term projections in the July report show that Lake Mead is expected to be about 1,055 feet by the end of 2025. That suggests the lake remains in a Tier 1 water shortage. If the water level were to drop below 1,050 feet at the year-end projection, then Arizona and Nevada would be expected to take less water from the Colorado River the following year.
Water managers will use the August 24-month projection report to determine if there must be changes to the water shortage conditions.
The model is a projection and could change, Mack said.
“If you look out too far into the 24-month study, there’s a good probability that you’re going to see changes within that forecasting as that forecast narrows and gets a little closer to real time,” he said.
Still others see the study as a warning bell. Kyle Roerink, executive director of the Great Basin Water Resource Network, a water security advocacy group, said the Bureau’s model implies the region is not expected to have a wet winter to provide the snowpack that ultimately feeds into the water basin.
“I think the data should be considered a glaring and salient warning to us all that no entity should be making plans to use more water,” he said. “Every entity on the river needs to be making plans to use less.”
Roerink said changes in the past have projected more water and therefore rising elevation levels, not less.
“We’re not going to be dealing with glide paths or soft landings or parachutes,” he said. “We’re going to be dealing with the uncertainties of Mother Nature in ways that don’t give us a lot of wiggle room or cushion, and then therefore, those are thin margins to be dealing with.”
Contact McKenna Ross at mross@reviewjournal.com. Follow @mckenna_ross_ on X.