Could La Niña mean a cooler, drier winter in Las Vegas?

The climate pattern is part of the larger El Niño Southern Oscillation, tied to sea surface temperatures near the equator. When those waters cool below average, meteorologists call it La Niña. In some parts of the country, that cooling can tip the scales toward certain kinds of weather.

Not so much in Southern Nevada.

Since 1950, we’ve had La Niña conditions during at least part of winter 26 times — the last in 2022–23 — and the local results have been all over the board.

“There’s only a very weak link to drier-than-normal winters here,” said Morgan Stessman, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service’s Las Vegas office. “Given how little precipitation we get, one strong storm — or the lack of one — can swing us above or below normal.”

Right now, the federal Climate Prediction Center leans toward warmer and drier from December through February: roughly a 40 to 50 percent shot at above-normal temperatures and a 33 to 40 percent chance of below-normal precipitation. Those numbers sound neat and tidy, but meteorologist Jenn Soulat reminds us they’re just probabilities — not promises.

“While La Niña can offer a starting point for seasonal forecasts, it’s important to remember that the link to Southern Nevada’s weather is very weak,” Soulat said. “We could see warmer and drier conditions overall, but it only takes one storm or cold snap to change the game. So, keep watching the daily forecast and be ready for whatever comes our way.”

Even the odds for La Niña itself are fuzzy. Forecasters put it around 50 percent for October through December, with the likelihood tapering off as winter goes on. Which means, as Stessman points out, there’s just as good a chance we won’t see it at all this year.

And no matter the ENSO phase, the valley still gets its seasonal hazards. Wind is the big one. Without trees to slow it down, a strong gust can send garbage bins skating across the street or flip trampolines into a neighbor’s yard. The Weather Service suggests tying down anything that could go airborne and steering clear of high-profile vehicles during wind advisories.

Rain — when it finally shows up after weeks of dry weather — brings its own trouble. Light showers can mix with oil and dust on the pavement, making slick spots that seem to appear out of nowhere.

So what should Las Vegans do? Keep an eye on the daily forecast, expect a curveball or two, and don’t bet too heavily on long-range odds. “Las Vegas weather always finds a way to keep us guessing,” Stessman said.

Contact Kevin J. Barr at kbarr@reviewjournal.com