More history in the making

In 2003, the Legislature approved a tax increase that proved the “largest in state history,” albeit one that was less than what Gov. Kenny Guinn proposed. In 2005, state lawmakers set a new standard for spending. This year, they gave the most away, in the form of “green” tax breaks to casino companies.

Also this year, we learned about a shortfall in the fund used to build highway projects. Way back when the Legislature was in session, the construction wish list stood at $3.8 billion. Now it’s estimated at more than $5 billion. I bet that ranks somewhere on the “largest in state history” scale.

Now there are two initiatives to raise the state’s gaming tax by, you guessed it, the largest amount in state history.

And there will be a school bond. It will hit the 2008 ballot at a whopping $9.5 billion, marking it as, you guessed it, the largest in state history.

The funny thing about most of these historic expenditures or revenue raisers is that they never quite feel historic.

The 2003 tax increase, for example, raised general fund spending $833 million over two years. Taxes were increased on cigarettes, alcohol, live entertainment events, property transfers, bank branches and certain employees. The property tax ticked up one penny and the gaming tax went up half a percentage point.

Yes, we pay a bit more for a bottle of wine or show tickets, but the majority of Nevadans have not felt the 2003 tax hikes. The recent Clark County sales tax increase to pay for more police had a greater impact than anything passed by the Legislature in 2003.

Although the Legislature spent like drunken sailors in 2005 and even repealed a small share of the payroll tax approved in 2003, in 2007 we’re again in a state of financial doom and gloom, with the governor calling for 8 percent budget cuts at various state agencies.

Nothing about the 2005 spending (on a mental hospital and higher education, for example) seems historic today.

The state Division of Mental Health stands to lose state money and matching federal funds under the proposed cuts. This at a time when Nevada has service capacity for only 20 percent of the mental health patients seen in emergency rooms.

Meanwhile, Jim Rogers, the chancellor of the higher education system, is routinely out on the stump calling his universities and colleges “mediocre.” That may be historic, but for a completely different reason.

The Clark County School District is down to the last funds of what at one time was its “historic” $3.5 billion bond from 1998. The $9.5 billion bond measure on next year’s ballot would enable the district to buy land and build 73 new schools over the next 10 years.

Just for kicks, the district crunched the numbers to see what it would cost to build 137 schools over the next decade. Those additional schools would mean high school enrollment would max out at 900 students, compared to the 2,700 crammed into campuses today. Elementary schools would have a manageable 300 kids and not be forced into double sessions or year-round schedules. But it would cost $3.2 billion more.

It’s going to be hard enough to pass a “historic” $9.5 billion bond, let alone a “historic” $12.7 billion one.

At least the district is keeping the current tax rate with its $9.5 billion plan. Theoretically, this is not a tax increase. It just continues the tax rate approved by voters 10 years ago.

And in 2018, you can bet the district will be back for more. Even if growth tapers off as available land in the Las Vegas Valley is gobbled up, the district will still have schools to rehabilitate and new ones to build somewhere. By then the district may very well need more than just Sandy Valley Elementary and Middle School for all the families living or working in Jean and Primm. By then, the district will be creeping up on half a million students — historic to be sure.

It’s likely that by 2018 we’ll be the third-largest school district in the nation, behind Los Angeles Unified and New York City. The projections certainly have us growing more than Chicago or Miami-Dade, the other two districts ahead of us on the list.

There’s one thing historic about being one of the nation’s biggest. In Los Angeles, students speak 92 different languages at home. It’s so diverse and so needy that foundations which typically give money to poor kids in sub-Saharan Africa also send grants to L.A.

Already, the scare tactics have started. Some school days would be reduced to four hours if the bond fails and the district is forced into double sessions. The horror would be historic, to be sure. Kids walking to school and coming home in the dark. In Las Vegas.

As the 2008 ballot continues to take shape with initiatives and the presidential campaign, one thing is certain. It will be historic.

Contact Erin Neff at eneff@reviewjournal.com or (702) 387-2906.