Auburn can overpower undersized Southern Mississippi
Auburn lost its top two running backs and four offensive line starters from last season.
Then Texas beat the Tigers for the services of Rice transfer Calvin Anderson, a tackle who at one point was headed to Auburn.
The Tigers have faced two very good defenses in Washington and Louisiana State, as well as an Arkansas defense that goes against Chad Morris’ offense every day in practice (Morris borrows heavily from Auburn coach Gus Malzahn’s offense).
The result of these factors? Auburn has rushed 119 times against FBS teams for 3.1 yards per carry.
Well, Southern Mississippi is good medicine for what ails Auburn. The Golden Eagles’ defense, built on speed rather than size, averages just 221 pounds per starter. Only two starters top 250 pounds and four starters weigh less than 200.
Auburn’s defense ranks No. 2 in the country in the S&P+ ratings and QB Jarrett Stidham might be protected well enough to take some deep shots against the inexperienced Southern Miss secondary. Auburn has some value as a 27-point favorite. I expect the Tigers to take out some of their offensive frustrations on the Golden Eagles.
Four more plays (home team in CAPS):
Charlotte (+16½) over ALABAMA-BIRMINGHAM: The Blazers rebooted the football program last September after two years of non-existence. UAB’s offense caught teams off guard in September 2017, scoring at least 30 points in all four games. Since then, UAB has scored more than 30 points just twice in 11 games against FBS teams. As one of the least explosive offenses in the country, UAB wants to run on first, second and third down, if possible, and eventually wear down your defense. Charlotte has scored 59 points in its last two games, and the 49ers’ run defense is good enough to make UAB work for its points.
SAN JOSE STATE (+10½) over Hawaii: After beating the spread by a combined 57½ points against Colorado State and Navy to start the season, Hawaii has failed to cover the number in three consecutive games, assuming a closing line of Hawaii plus 6½ at Army. The Rainbow Warriors have traveled 12,331 miles in the last three weeks and are on an 0-5 ATS skid as a road favorite. San Jose State had a bye week to prepare after losing 35-22 at Oregon. The Spartans also got good prep at Washington State, which has attempted more passes than Hawaii in one fewer game.
TEXAS TECH (+3.5) over West Virginia: The Red Raiders have notched three consecutive covers after a 47-27 loss to Ole Miss in the season opener. The defense has played better every game, culminating in last week’s 41-17 win at Oklahoma State. QB Will Grier and the Mountaineers receivers are fantastic. But Tennessee, Youngstown State and Kansas State did nothing to test West Virginia’s defense. The Mountaineers are ranked No. 12 in the AP Top 25 without facing a team in the top 50 of my power rankings, while the Red Raiders aren’t even receiving votes. The market is due for a correction.
Louisiana Tech (+7.5) over NORTH TEXAS: The Mean Green are plus-9 in turnover margin and have scored four non-offensive touchdowns, neither of which is sustainable. QB Mason Fine is accurate, but this is an efficient offense not known for big plays. Louisiana Tech just outgained LSU in Baton Rouge (417-409). The Bulldogs will play keep away on offense and force the Mean Green to drive the length of the field. The under (64) is worth a look as well.
Last Week: 2-3 ATS
Season: 7-13
Christopher Smith of AL.com, NOLA.com and MyBookie is providing college football analysis for the Las Vegas Review-Journal. Follow @cfblocksmith on Twitter.