College football best bets: Could this SEC team get back to CFP?
LSU hasn’t made the College Football Playoff since the 2019 season, when it crushed Clemson in the national title game behind Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Joe Burrow.
Texas-based handicapper Paul Stone is banking on LSU to return to the CFP this season behind a new quarterback in Heisman contender Garrett Nussmeier. Stone recommends bets on the Tigers to go over their regular-season win total of 8½ (-135 at Circa Sports) and make the 12-team playoff (+135 at Westgate SuperBook).
“A lot of pundits have proclaimed Texas Tech to be this season’s transfer portal champion, but I believe LSU was the biggest winner in the offseason,” said Stone (@PaulStoneSports). “The Tigers bettered themselves on both sides of the ball, but especially on defense where they clearly upgraded their lineup at the edge positions and in the secondary.
“With a talented, veteran quarterback and an improved defense, I see LSU winning at least nine games against one of the nation’s toughest schedules and making the 12-team playoff.”
Nussmeier is tied with Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik as the +750 second choice at the Westgate to win the Heisman behind Texas quarterback Arch Manning, the +450 favorite.
No. 9 LSU is a 4-point underdog at No. 4 Clemson in Saturday’s season-opening matchup of top-10 teams.
Stone’s other college football futures best bet is on West Virginia to go under 5½ wins (-135 at Caesars Sportsbook).
Coach Rich Rodriguez returns to the Mountaineers after guiding them to a 60-26 mark in seven seasons before bolting for Michigan in 2007. Stone doesn’t envision Rodriguez reaching the .500 mark in his first year back at his alma mater.
“West Virginia graduated its quarterback, Garrett Greene, and two of its top players — running back CJ Donaldson and linebacker Josiah Trotter — transferred out of the program,” Stone said. “They reportedly have over 50 new players on their roster and don’t draw Oklahoma State, Arizona or Houston in conference play. I can’t see the Mountaineers batting .500 this season with that roster against that schedule.”
In the Navy
Eight teams are odds-on favorites at the Westgate to make the playoff and 30 others have single-digit odds.
The 12-team field will be comprised of the five highest-rated conference champions — almost certainly the Power Four champs and the top Group of Five champ — and the next seven highest-ranked teams.
Boise State is the biggest Group of Five favorite, at +195, to make the playoff. But CBS Sportsline handicapper Bruce Marshall recommends a play on Navy at +1,250 and suggests sprinkling a few bucks on Midshipmen quarterback Blake Horvath to win the Heisman at 500-1 odds at the Westgate.
Horvath had a 95-yard touchdown run to help lead Navy to a comeback win over Oklahoma in the Armed Forces Bowl in December. The Midshipmen also beat Army last season en route to a 10-3 record.
“It’s very unlikely, but if Navy has the year I think it’s going to have and Horvath does what he did last year, they’d get enormous press,” Marshall said. “It would be the first time (a Navy player won the Heisman) since Roger Staubach (in 1963). It would become a national storyline. It’s not an unthinkable scenario.”
Here are three other college football win total best bets:
Miami, under 9½ wins (-150, BetMGM)
“With games against Notre Dame, Florida, Florida State, SMU and Pittsburgh, the Hurricanes would have to win three of these games and then go undefeated against the rest of their schedule to hit the 10-win mark,” said WizardSportsPicks.com handicapper Dana Lane (@DanaLaneSports). “That’s too much to ask considering Miami has to replace six solid receivers from 2024, including leading receiver Xavier Restrepo.
“There will be games where transfer (quarterback) Carson Beck will struggle adapting to a spread-based, tempo-driven scheme rather than Georgia’s pro-style offense. The juice is high here for a reason.”
Toledo, over 8½ wins (-135, Circa)
“While most MAC schools get ravaged in the portal, Toledo added running backs from Ohio State and Virginia Tech. And coach Jason Candle’s defenses are always schematically stout,” “Bet Sweats” podcast host Sam Panayotovich (@spshoot) said.
Ball State, under 3½ wins (-120, Circa)
“With four returning starters from a defense that allowed 34 points or more nine times last season, non-conference road games at Purdue, Auburn and UConn before conference play begins, and a new coach, the Cardinals have their work cut out to win four games,” 1/ST BET handicapper Frank Carulli said.
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on X.