Stanley Cup Final betting: Public all over same side in Game 1, series
There have been two Stanley Cup Final rematches in back-to-back years since 1984, and the team that lost the first matchup won the second both times.
The Edmonton Oilers were swept by the New York Islanders in the 1983 Stanley Cup Final before winning the rematch in 1984 for the first of their five NHL titles in seven years. Most recently, the Pittsburgh Penguins lost to the Detroit Red Wings in the 2008 Final before defeating them in 2009.
The betting public is banking on the Oilers to win their first Stanley Cup since 1990 — and become the first Canadian team to win the Cup since 1993 — in a rematch of last year’s Final against the Florida Panthers.
“The public is all over Edmonton for Game 1 and the series,” Westgate SuperBook vice president of risk Ed Salmons said.
The Oilers, who erased a 3-0 series deficit in last year’s Final before losing to Florida in Game 7, have home-ice advantage this time and are -125 favorites in Wednesday’s Game 1 and the series.
“People remember Edmonton coming back from 3-0 to force Game 7 and this year Edmonton has the home ice to start,” Salmons said. “But it seems like home ice in hockey is almost meaningless. Both these teams have really good road records.”
The Oilers are 6-2 on the road in the playoffs and were 3-0 at T-Mobile Arena in their second-round series against the Golden Knights. The Panthers have been even better away from home, going 8-2.
Best bets
That’s one reason PickDawgz.com handicapper Dana Lane likes Florida — playing in its third straight Stanley Cup Final after losing to the Knights in 2023 — to win Game 1 (+115) and the series (+110).
“The Florida Panthers have been unstoppable on the road, winning eight of 10 postseason games, including five straight victories, by an average margin of 3.63 goals,” said Lane (@DanaLaneSports). “This dominance isn’t new. Florida has been a road warrior over its three-year Cup run, boasting a 23-10 record away from home.
“All the Panthers have to do is win one in Edmonton, and it’s back home where the Oilers failed to win a game in last year’s Final.”
The consensus total for the series opener is 6, but Lane recommends a play on under 6½ (available at -134 at Boyd Gaming).
“While the Edmonton Oilers have been equally strong at home (6-1), the difference-maker lies in net. (Florida goaltender) Sergei Bobrovsky has been sensational, allowing two goals or fewer in eight of his last nine starts while posting a .944 save percentage,” Lane said. “The Panthers offense will come from transition created by a superior blue line while leaning on their world class netminder. Look for the Oilers to struggle finding high danger chances as the series progresses.”
The Panthers are bidding to become the first team to win back-to-back Cups since the Tampa Bay Lightning in 2020 and 2021. Florida swept the season series with Edmonton, winning 6-5 on the road in December and 4-3 at home in February.
“To me, they’re evenly matched teams,” Salmons said.
Red Rock Resort sportsbook director Chuck Esposito agrees.
“It wouldn’t surprise me to see it go seven again,” he said. “It’s a little bit of a contrast in styles. The physicality, toughness and edge between the pipes for Florida, and the speed and the way they can score for Edmonton.
“There’s going to be a lot more pressure on Edmonton to win. You have (three-time Hart Trophy winner) Connor McDavid, who hasn’t won a Cup yet, and you’ve got a whole country behind them. I think the fact that Games 1 and 7 are there really helps Edmonton a lot.”
Conn Smythe Trophy
McDavid is the +110 favorite to win the Conn Smythe Trophy, which is awarded to the playoff MVP. Bobrovsky is the 3-1 second choice, followed by Panthers center Aleksander Barkov at 5-1 and Oilers center Leon Draisatl at 9-1.
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on X.