NFL Week 1 predictions
Buffalo Bills at Chicago Bears
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, at Soldier Field, Chicago – TV: FOX
- Keys to the game: Safety play is the Achilles heel of the Chicago defense, and second-year Bills QB EJ Manuel could be rewarded for taking risks down the field. An early shot to rookie WR Sammy Watkins (ribs) could pay off. Chicago is keyed on stopping the read-option attack and the Bills running game with RBs C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson. Buffalo won’t have much time to buckle the pass protection in front of QB Jay Cutler, and size advantages go to Chicago’s receivers across the board. The offense feeds off RB Matt Forte, a slasher and accomplished receiver who’ll test Buffalo’s new-look LB corps.
- Matchup to watch — Bears LT Jermon Bushrod vs. Bills RDE Mario Williams: At 6-6, 290, Williams can overpower in the run game and dominate as a pass rusher. The Bears like to run behind Bushrod and Matt Slauson on the left side, but it won’t be as easy going against Williams.
- Player spotlight — Bills CB Nickell Roby: The Bears found success sliding 100-catch receiver Brandon Marshall to the slot last season, where he was too much for most inside cornerbacks. If Roby draws Marshall, and the eight-inch height disadvantage that comes with it, Cutler can pepper the quick inside routes to set up the home-run ball.
- Fast facts: The Bills led the NFL in rushing attempts in 2013. … The Bears haven’t lost a home opener since 2008.
Chicago was second in the NFL in scoring (445 points) to the Broncos last season, but gave up 478. Were the Bears’ woes solved in a big-spending offseason or will the back end of the defense continue to plague them?
Our pick: Bears 28-27
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, at M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, Md. – TV: CBS
- Keys to the game: The Ravens want to jam the Bengals’ deep group of receivers at the line and disrupt the timing of QB Andy Dalton in the quick-strike passing attack. Problem is, they may not know until game day who will be available to do the jamming with CBs Lardarius Webb (back) and Jimmy Smith (chest contusion) racing the clock to overcome injuries. Baltimore has given Dalton some fits in the past, and his timing will be critical after coach Marvin Lewis rested many of his starters late in the preseason in an effort to keep them fresh deep into the season. Baltimore’s offense is now run by coordinator Gary Kubiak, who will lean on Bernard Pierce to lead the ground game in the absence of suspended Ray Rice. The hope is Kubiak’s version of the West Coast offense will help QB Joe Flacco rebound from a 2013 season in which he was sacked 48 times and tossed a franchise-record 22 interceptions.
- Matchup to watch — Bengals C Russell Bodine vs. Ravens DL Haloti Ngata: It’s rookie vs. five-time Pro Bowler. Bodine draws an extremely tough assignment in his NFL debut, and Ngata still possesses the ability to swallow up multiple defenders and force the Bengals ground game to the edges.
- Player spotlight — Webb: Following offseason sports hernia surgery, Webb hurt his lower back July 25 and sat out the entire preseason. He was a full participant midweek and is expected to be on the field figuring in the mix to contain WR A.J. Green.
- Fast facts: Dalton is 0-3 with three touchdown passes against seven interceptions at Baltimore. … The Ravens’ .656 winning percentage (21-11) in the opening month over the past 10 seasons is fourth-best in the NFL.
The Ravens’ are out to prove the 2013 mess was a one-season blip on coach John Harbaugh’s spectacular resume. Bengals coach Marvin Lewis is already laying out a plan for postseason success. The difference in expectations are there for a reason: Cincy is better almost across the board, as long as Dalton can overcome his M&T Bank curse.
Our pick: Bengals 24-19
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, at Heinz Field, Pittsburgh – TV: CBS
- Keys to the game: A Cleveland secondary that limped through the preseason will be tested early by QB Ben Roethlisberger, who has had plenty of trophy performances in this series. Coupled with a thunderclap backfield of Le’Veon Bell and LeGarrette Blount, Roethlisberger should give the underrated front seven of the Browns off-balance. QB Brian Hoyer won his first three starts for the Browns last season, but his receivers are not special. Nor is the Steelers’ secondary. TE Jordan Cameron can win one-on-one with time, and Hoyer has deep threats in Travis Benjamin and rookie Taylor Gabriel. To peel back the Pittsburgh blitz packages, the Browns can chip away with underneath throws and a healthy diet of RBs Ben Tate and Terrance West.
- Matchup to watch — Browns CB Justin Gilbert vs. Steelers WR Markus Wheaton: Gilbert gave up three touchdown passes in the last two preseason games — two due to poor open-field tackling — and Wheaton flashed big-play potential to earn Roethlisberger’s endorsement as a breakout candidate last month.
- Player spotlight — Browns QB Johnny Manziel: Even the Steelers expected Manziel to be the Week 1 starter. He brings a different element to the offense the way he makes plays with his feet. Hoyer is a pass-first quarterback, but the Steelers are preparing for a potential “Johnny Package.”
- Fast facts: Roethlisberger is 9-0 at home and 17-1 overall against the Browns. … Tim Couch was the last Cleveland Browns starter to win at Pittsburgh (2003).
The concern about chronic slow starts in Pittsburgh is founded — the Steelers last won an opener in 2010 — but steeper is the climb for Cleveland’s lackluster offense.
Our pick: Steelers 20-13
Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, at Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia – TV: CBS
- Keys to the game: Jacksonville envisions Toby Gerhart as the workhorse engine of a conservative offense driven by QB Chad Henne. Gerhart averaged 4.7 yards per carry in four seasons with the Vikings, primarily as Adrian Peterson’s backup. The Jaguars don’t want to play at Philadelphia’s sprinter pace, but the bulk of that pressure falls to head coach Gus Bradley’s defense. The Eagles have one of the most athletic offensive lines in the league. It excels at getting outside on screens. Their wide receivers also are very good blockers and the Eagles’ gameplan of getting running backs LeSean McCoy and Darren Sproles the ball in the open field is a heavy burden for the Jaguars. If the Jaguars tire, QB Nick Foles has huge targets who exploit mismatches, including TE Zach Ertz and WR Riley Cooper.
- Matchup to watch — Jaguars LB Paul Posluszny vs. McCoy: McCoy is the heart of the Eagles’ offense. He led the NFL in rushing last year with 1,607 yards on a league-high 314 carries. Posluszny, a first-time Pro Bowl pick last season and the Jaguars’ leading tackler, will key on McCoy.
- Player spotlight — Eagles RT Allen Barbre: Lane Johnson (suspension) is a top athlete, Barbre is more of a brawler. He has just seven career starts, and Chris Clemons will likely be moved around in his LEO role to take advantage of his edge-rushing speed.
- Fast facts: The Eagles had a franchise-record 53 touchdowns last season; Jacksonville has 51 combined in the past two seasons. … McCoy led the NFL with 1,607 rushing yards and 2,146 yards from scrimmage last season.
Measured improvement from the Jaguars is no consolation in a bad matchup that will expose their shortage of offensive weapons and defensive star power.
Our pick: Eagles 30-15
Minnesota Vikings at St. Louis Rams
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, at Edward Jones Dome at America’s Center, St. Louis – TV: FOX
TV announcers: Dick Stockton, Kirk Morrison, Kristina Pink
- Keys to the game: Diverting attention from RB Adrian Peterson, who rushed for 212 yards including an 82-yard touchdown against nine-man fronts in the last meeting with the Rams, is no easy task. WR Cordarrelle Patterson, who scored nine touchdowns (four receiving, three rushing, two returns) last season, will get more of the spotlight in 2014. Incorporating Patterson must be done without asking QB Matt Cassel to drop back 40 times in the face of the St. Louis pass rush. With Shaun Hill starting for the first time since 2010, the Rams’ game plan will be to play it safe. Reclamation project Kenny Britt, a newcomer from the Titans, had flashes of brilliance in preseason, but hasn’t worked with Hill a ton. RB Zac Stacy could get as much work as he can handle behind the Rams’ retooled front five.
- Matchup to watch — Vikings LT Matt Kalil vs. Rams DE Robert Quinn: Quinn’s first step is pure lightning, and resulted in 19 sacks and seven forced fumbles in 2013. Cassel has all the moves of an 18-wheeler and becomes mistake-prone when facing constant heat.
- Player spotlight — Vikings DE Everson Griffen: His megadeal in the offseason — five years, $42.5 million — surprised many, but the niche player is being turned loose as a pass-rush specialist by head coach Mike Zimmer, who has a history of turning natural rush traits into massive production.
- Fast facts: Hill beat the Vikings as the Detroit Lions’ starter in 2010. … Minnesota has eight road wins (23 losses, one tie) since 2010.
The Rams ride the home crowd and a dominant defensive performance to the kind of victory they will need to survive in the NFC West.
Our pick: Rams 16-13
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, at Sun Life Stadium, Miami – TV: CBS
- Keys to the game: Tom Brady might need a game or three to find a comfort zone behind an offensive line still jelling. The return of TE Rob Gronkowski from December 2013 knee surgery is no certainty, but would help his quarterback shift gears. The picture in the Patriots’ backfield is at least three-wide, including rookie James White behind top backs Stevan Ridley, Shane Vereen and Brandon Bolden, a crew that will bring caution to Miami’s coverage blitzes. Miami finished 24th in the NFL against the run last season, and the Patriots are sure to trial their deep backfield in Week 1. Field goals won’t cut it for the Dolphins. New England brings CB Darrelle Revis, who opens up the front seven to spring a multitude of looks on Miami’s offensive line of five new starters.
- Matchup to watch — Patriots NT Vince Wilfork vs. Dolphins C Samson Satele: Satele has survived seven seasons at several stops with quickness and toughness but at 300 pounds, he’s no one-on-one match for Wilfork. If Miami wants to limit Wilfork’s impact, they will keep the tempo up, blending run and pass while taking advantage of muggy temperatures.
- Player spotlight — Dolphins RB Knowshon Moreno: Perhaps more as a receiver to begin the season, Moreno’s niche will be an important one until Lamar Miller nails down the featured role. Moreno is behind after summer knee surgery, but ran well in August. Miller impressed the coaching staff with his increased bulk and decisive running, but is still a liability in protection.
- Fast facts: Only the 1983-1998 San Francisco 49ers had a longer streak of 10-plus win seasons than the Patriots, who have an active 11-season streak. … Dolphins DE Cameron Wake needs 5.5 sacks to move into third on the team’s all-time list.
Versatility plays into the Patriots’ favor, and the ability to throw anything at their opponent and adapt to game situations on the fly will suit New England well by forcing the Dolphins to match touchdowns.
Our pick: Patriots 30-24
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, at Georgia Dome, Atlanta – TV: FOX
- Keys to the game: The Falcons are excited about the prospect of having WRs Julio Jones, Roddy White and Harry Douglas healthy and on the field at the same time. The biggest apprehension about the offense remains protection in the wake of LT Sam Baker’s season-ending injury. The ripple effect has rookie Jake Matthews on QB Matt Ryan’s blind side and Lamar Holmes at right tackle. RB Steven Jackson will be available, but the Falcons will likely use a rotation in the backfield and need production on the ground to keep Ryan from the teeth of a defense that will send rushers from all angles.
- The Saints still possess a potentially explosive offense, while the Falcons are expected to start five second-year players on defense. Atlanta’s cornerbacks were also attacked during the preseason. Saints QB Drew Brees didn’t see much preseason action while recovering from a strained oblique, and Atlanta’s best chance may be to hope he’s not in rhythm yet. New Orleans does want to run the ball more consistently this season. RB Mark Ingram & Co. will provide a good early test for the Falcons’ run defense, which has a new anchor in 340-pounder Paul Soliai.
- Matchup to watch — Saints CB Patrick Robinson vs. White: Robinson won the second starting job over future Hall of Famer Champ Bailey, and draws a difficult opening assignment. With Jones healthy and drawing the primary attention, Robinson will have to prove he can hold up in plenty of man coverage against White, still one of the league’s top route-runners.
- Player spotlight — Saints S Jairus Byrd: Ryan will utilize three and even four safeties at times, especially if the Falcons’ can’t establish the run. Byrd is one of the league’s best ballhawks making his Saints debut.
- Fast facts: The Saints’ .362 winning percentage (17-30) on Kickoff Weekend is the second-worst in the NFL, ahead of only Carolina. … Jones is the first player in NFL history with a touchdown catch of 80-plus yards in each of his first three seasons.
The Falcons are confident in a bounce-back season, but there are still too many questions along the offensive line and no stud in the backfield, leaving too much on Ryan’s shoulders to engage in shootout against Brees.
Our pick: Saints 34-28
Oakland Raiders at New York Jets
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, at MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, N.J. – TV: CBS
- Keys to the game: Raiders coach Dennis Allen said quarterback Derek Carr is “mature beyond his years” in naming the rookie his starter, and that belief will be put to the immediate test in a cross-country road game against a Rex Ryan defense. Carr brings more mobility than Matt Schaub, and the Raiders are likely to put him on the move to prevent asking Carr to survey the full field in the face of the Jets’ pass rush. Of course, getting a strong effort from RBs Maurice Jones-Drew and/or Darren McFadden in the ground game would do wonders.
- The Jets are determined to get back to the ground-and-pound approach with RBs Chris Johnson and Chris Ivory, setting up QB Geno Smith to work an efficient passing attack off play-action. The Raiders upgraded their pass rush with Justin Tuck and LaMarr Woodley, but the secondary remains a concern.
- Matchup to watch — Raiders CB Tarell Brown vs. Jets WR Eric Decker: While he doesn’t have Peyton Manning throwing to him anymore, Decker did catch 12 passes for 160 yards and two touchdowns in two meetings against the Raiders last season. Brown was signed as a free agent from the 49ers to solidify the secondary, but struggled to stick with receivers much of the preseason.
- Player spotlight — Raiders WR Denarius Moore: Moore worked his way onto the 53-man roster by establishing quick chemistry with Carr. The Raiders will take a few deep shots against the Jets’ leaky secondary, clearly the biggest question mark on the defense entering the season.
- Fast facts: The Raiders have the league’s most difficult strength of schedule, with their opponents this season boasting a .578 winning percentage in 2013. … The Raiders will travel a league-high 36,078 miles this season, more than 11,000 more than any other team and more than six times as far as Pittsburgh (5,918). A trip around the globe is 25,000 miles. … Jets coach Rex Ryan is 4-1 in season-openers.
The Jets have issues in the secondary that will likely rear their ugly head at some point. But at home with a strong front line attacking a rookie quarterback, the Jets should be able to capitalize on short fields.
Our pick: Jets 20-13
Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City – TV: CBS
- Keys to the game: The Chiefs won with offensive efficiency in 2013, keeping QB Alex Smith comfortable and relying on RB Jamaal Charles to move the chains and score points (19 total TDs). With WR Dwayne Bowe suspended, Smith will rely on TEs Anthony Fasano and Travis Kelce to win on intermediate routes and use long drives to score. There is a wow factor to Jake Locker when the Titans quarterback is at his best. His decision-making and accuracy looked improved this summer, and he’s playing for a contract. The Chiefs can harass the quarterback with LBs Justin Houston, Tamba Hali and rookie Dee Ford, but coverage is shaky. Titans WRs Kendall Wright and Justin Hunter will get their shots in single coverage.
- Matchup to watch — Chiefs LB Derrick Johnson vs. Titans RB Bishop Sankey: Shonn Greene gets the dirty jobs, like running between the tackles in short-yardage situations, but Sankey was drafted to bring a dynamic threat to the offense, especially in the open field.
- Player spotlight — Titans DE Jurrell Casey: Not yet a household name, Casey led Tennessee with 10.5 sacks last season and moves to a five-technique position in the 3-4. Defensive coordinator Ray Horton will find ways to free him up.
- Fast facts: The Chiefs beat Tennessee 26-17 on Oct. 6, 2013, head coach Andy Reid’s first victory over the Titans (1-4). … Kansas City led the AFC with a plus-18 turnover ratio last season.
Kansas City’s first-team offense logged a whopping 16 snaps together in four preseason games and Tennessee ran only a vanilla playbook. The veteran Chiefs, with a rested Charles, flip the switch first and get just enough offense to take down the Titans.
Our pick: Chiefs 24-23
Washington Redskins at Houston Texans
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, at Reliant Stadium, Houston – TV: FOX
- Keys to the game: Washington has plenty of horses at the skill position to put points on the board. However, the first-team offense failed to score a touchdown during the preseason as quarterback Robert Griffin struggled mightily. Can he turn on the switch for the regular season? Depends on how a suspect offensive line outside of LT Trent Williams holds up against the Texans’ playmaking front seven.
- Houston’s offense was equally concerning during the preseason, with journeyman QB Ryan Fitzpatrick showing no signs of ironing out the streaky play that has marked his career. RB Arian Foster is healthy, he can’t shoulder the load alone. Fitzpatrick can be wildly erratic, especially on long passing downs, and Washington can disrupt the pocket in a hurry with Ryan Kerrigan and Brian Orakpo. Expect plenty of underneath passes to complement the ground game, move the chains and attempt to avoid turnovers.
- Matchup to watch — Washington WR DeSean Jackson vs. Texans CB Jonathan Joseph: When healthy, Joseph is one of the league’s most underrated cornerbacks, routinely shadowing the opponent’s top receiver. He skipped the preseason recovering from toe surgery and will need to knock the rust off quickly to avoid falling victim to Jackson’s big-play ability in his Washington debut.
- Player spotlight — Washington ILB Keenan Robinson: After missing much of the past two seasons with pectoral muscle tears, Robinson is coming off a strong preseason as he takes over for retired team leader London Fletcher.
- Fast facts: Washington needs 12 victories to reach 600 as a franchise. … The Texans have won four consecutive season openers. … Tress Way will be the ninth different punter to open a season for Washington in the past 12 years.
Washington has an opportunity to build momentum against Houston and Jacksonville to open the season before hitting a tough three-game stretch. On the flip side, a loss to Houston, which has several playmakers on defense, is an attainable setback if RGIII doesn’t rebound from an awful preseason.
Our pick: Redskins 21-16
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, at Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Fla. – TV: FOX
- Keys to the game: Panthers QB Cam Newton is expected to start two weeks after suffering cracked ribs. While he’s not concerned about the injury, he likely won’t be on the move as much as normal and Carolina’s offensive line is a major question mark entering the season. The Bucs brought in DE Michael Johnson to bolster the defensive line along with mainstay DT Gerald McCoy and if Tampa Bay can stuff the ground game, Newton is going to have a difficult time moving the chains with the league’s least daunting receiving corps.
- The Bucs have similar questions regarding their offensive line and will struggle to cope with the Panthers’ stout defensive front seven. RB Doug Martin will be a focal point early, but the goal is to open up the offense and enable QB Josh McCown to use his super-sized receiving corps to attack Carolina’s revamped secondary.
- Matchup to watch — Panthers LT Byron Bell vs. Johnson: Bell was a weak link on the right side the past three seasons, but the coaching staff insists the left-hander will be better protecting Newton’s blind side. Johnson was given a five-year, $43.75 million contract in free agency to leave Cincinnati.
- Player spotlight — Bucs quarterbacks coach Marcus Arroyo: The man responsible for calling the plays if a recent medical procedure keeps Jeff Tedford from handling the duty.
- Fast facts: The Panthers’ .316 winning percentage (6-13) on Kickoff Weekend is the lowest in the NFL. The Bucs are only three spots higher at .395 (15-23). Panthers coach Ron Rivera is 0-3 in season-openers and Carolina has dropped an NFC-high five consecutive openers overall.
The defensive lines are capable of dominating their inferior counterparts and turning this into a brass knuckles defensive affair determined by turnovers and red zone production. In a flip of the coin, the nod goes to the Bucs at home.
Our pick: Bucs 17-16
San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, at AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas – TV: FOX
- Keys to the game: The track meet could be on early with both defenses entering the season with massive question marks.
- For the Cowboys, the unit is in transition and in need of several young players to step into significant holes without the likes of OLB DeMarcus Ware and ILB Sean Lee to bank on for leadership and playmaking. The 49ers still have a deep backfield capable of wearing down the front seven while forcing more man coverage on the outside.
- Dallas has a potentially explosive offense in its own right, but the Cowboys need to lean on RB DeMarco Murray early and attempt to exploit a 49ers defense without OLB Aldon Smith (suspension), inside linebacker NaVorro Bowman (injury), and defensive tackle Glenn Dorsey (injury) and likely end Ray McDonald due to an off-field issue. If the Cowboys can control the ball, they can protect that defense. San Francisco has also undergone significant changes in the secondary, and a depleted front seven could force a shift by the safeties that opens up shots to WR Dez Bryant.
- Matchup to watch — 49ers OLB Dan Skuta vs. Cowboys TE Jason Witten: Witten is still QB Tony Romo’s first option when needing to move the chains, and he could prove a mismatch against Skuta, starting in place of Smith. That could lead to increased snaps for Corey Lemonier.
- Player spotlight — Cowboys MLB Rolando McClain: He is listed as the backup to Justin Durant, but McClain played well during the preseason after the 2010 first-round pick decided to give the NFL another shot. He’ll see significant snaps.
- Fast facts: 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh is 3-0 in season openers. … Cowboys coach Jason Garrett is 29-27 in four-plus seasons.
With everyone available, the Cowboys defense will be outgunned on a weekly basis. Minus several key contributors, it’s simply no match for a 49ers offense capable of stringing together long drives, striking on a few big plays and then grinding out an easy victory.
Our pick: 49ers 38-30
Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos
Sunday, 8:30 p.m. ET, at Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver – TV: NBC
- Keys to the game: Colts OLB Robert Mathis gave the Broncos fits last season, but he’s serving a suspension and QB Peyton Manning won’t perspire facing the leftovers. Still, the plan is to work RB Montee Ball into a lather in his new gig with the first team as Knowshon Moreno’s replacement. Manning is missing suspended Wes Welker this month, yet the toy chest is well-stocked, including newcomers Emmanuel Sanders and Cody Latimer.
- The Colts introduce a shimmery receiving corps that includes former Giants first-round pick Hakeem Nicks, Reggie Wayne and T.Y. Hilton, but the question is whether QB Andrew Luck will get the time to dissect what’s coming from Denver’s high-priced defense. The pass-rush combination of DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller could spin the Colts’ offensive line into the turf if RBs Trent Richardson and Ahmad Bradshaw don’t get off on the right foot.
- Matchup to watch — Richardson vs. Broncos SS T.J. Ward: Ward, signed as a physical tone-setter and as more of a linebacker than defensive back, will be moving downhill to track Richardson and force Luck into third-and-long situations.
- Player spotlight — Colts OLB Bjoern Werner: The Colts will miss Mathis — he had two sacks and forced a fumble in last year’s meeting – but Indianapolis hit Manning 10 times last season. Werner is showing signs of becoming an impact player.
- Fast facts: The Colts have won five straight in the series, including 39-33 last season. … Luck’s 8,196 passing yards through his first two seasons set an NFL record.
Manning might not match the seven-touchdown performance he delivered in the 2013 opener, but he gets the Broncos a 27th regular-season win in his three seasons in Denver.
Our pick: Broncos 32-24
New York Giants at Detroit Lions
Monday, 7:10 p.m. ET, at Ford Field, Detroit – TV: ESPN
- Keys to the game: The Lions will bring a beastly pass rush at the Giants’ untested offensive line that is built more to plow running lanes for RBs Rashad Jennings and Andre Williams. The goal is to invite quarterback Eli Manning to beat them through the air.
- The same is true for the Lions, who are preaching balance to solve Matthew Stafford’s own turnover troubles (13 TDs, 13 INTs in the final eight games of 2013). In Joique Bell, the Lions have a tested complement to RB Reggie Bush, and new coach Jim Caldwell wants the overall approach to be more conservative. Stafford has a few new weapons to stretch the field and test the Giants’ secondary; watch for him to take a few deep shots early.
- Matchup to watch — Giants CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie vs. Lions WR Calvin Johnson: Megatron was not at full strength when these teams met last season, and the Giants held him to three receptions for 43 yards in Week 16. Rodgers-Cromartie only gave up 100 receiving yards to an opponent twice in the regular season with the Broncos last season, in Week 3 vs. the Raiders and Week 5 vs. the Cowboys.
- Player spotlight — Lions TE Eric Ebron: The first-round pick is a rare athlete and has a size-speed advantage over MLB Jon Beason, who is scraping to return from a June foot injury. When Ebron attracts bodies inside, Stafford can look to another newcomer, WR Golden Tate.
- Fast facts: The Lions (minus-12) and Giants (minus-15) were a combined minus-27 in takeaways last season. … Manning’s 151 consecutive starts leads active quarterbacks.
These teams have played four overtime games in 41 all-time meetings (20-20-1 overall record) and are closely matched in many facets. At home, the high-energy Lions rush rattles Manning into a few costly mistakes to separate late.
Our pick: Lions 26-20
San Diego Chargers at Arizona Cardinals
Monday, 10:20 p.m. ET, at University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, Ariz. – TV: ESPN
- Keys to the game: Arizona’s sixth-ranked defense from last season suffered some massive losses, including lineman Darnell Dockett and linebackers Karlos Dansby and Daryl Washington. The Cardinals are confident they can hold up in man coverage with CBs Patrick Peterson and Antonio Cromartie on the outside against WRs Keenan Allen and Malcom Floyd, but the Chargers will attack the gut of the defense and if the Cardinals bring the safeties forward it only leaves them exposed to TEs Antonio Gates and Ladarius Green.
- The Cardinals are confident their offense will make more than enough strides to compensate for any pack pedaling by the defense. QB Carson Palmer looked good in the preseason and the Cardinals have a slew of weapons downfield, from big and physical to speedy and dangerous. But Palmer can only be as good as the protection in front of him, which remains a serious concern, especially considering the lack of a reliable ground game.
- Matchup to watch — Gates and Green vs. Cardinals S Deone Buchanon: Gates is still highly effective and Green is one of the potential breakout stars of 2014. Green played only 370 snaps last season, but his workload will increase this year as the Chargers utilize his rare ability to be effective as a blocker as well as create mismatches downfield. Buchanon is a rookie who will see significant snaps in nickel packages. Cromartie could also be tasked to help combat the physical tight ends.
- Player spotlight — Cardinals PK Chandler Catanzaro: Arizona cut veteran Jay Feely, banking on the rookie’s strong preseason effort and stronger leg.
- Fast facts: Green had nine catches of 20-plus yards last season. … Palmer will be the first quarterback since Kurt Warner in 2008-09 to begin consecutive seasons as the Cardinals’ starter.
WHO WILL WIN AND WHY
Both teams sport a talented group of skill position players that should make for an entertaining contest. This is the first true test for the Cardinals’ supposedly improved offensive line, and it’s a dangerous gamble to leave a drop-back passer without a decent ground game.
Our pick: Chargers 24-23