NFL Week 3 predictions
Baltimore Ravens (1-1) at Cleveland Browns (1-1)
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, at FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland – TV: CBS
- Keys to the game: The Ravens have found a nice tandem in RBs Bernard Pierce and Justin Forsett, who are combining to average 5.1 yards per carry as Baltimore has morphed into a ball-control unit. That targets the weakness of the Browns, whose defense is allowing an average of 5.4 yards on 56 carries. Given manageable third downs, QB Joe Flacco should be able to string together drives as he has already connected with eight different receivers.
- The Ravens’ defense has been giving up yards — 681 through two games — but has allowed just one touchdown, forcing opponents to drive the length of the field. Rookie RBs Terrance West and Isaiah Crowell will again comprise the engine of the offense with Ben Tate sidelined. QB Brian Hoyer must remain patient because big plays will be hard to come by and he enters the game averaging just 6.1 yards per attempt and TE Jordan Cameron (shoulder) potentially out a second straight game.
- Matchup to watch — Ravens OLB Terrell Suggs vs. Browns LT Joe Thomas: Thomas is a perennial Pro Bowler and one of the most technically-sound linemen in the NFL, but he has had his struggles with Suggs through the years. Suggs has 15 sacks in 21 career games against Cleveland, with almost all of them coming against Thomas. However, Suggs has just one sack over his past 10 games.
- Player spotlight — Browns ILB Craig Robertson: Rookie Chris Kirksey started the Week 2 victory over New Orleans, but Robertson could be in line for increased snaps as the Browns attempt to shore up their leaky run defense.
- Fast facts: The Ravens’ defense has not yielded a touchdown in four red zone opportunities by opponents. … Hoyer has not thrown an interception in 132 pass attempts, a streak spanning five games.
Like many AFC North battles, this isn’t going to be pretty. Both offenses grind out most every yard, with the differentiator being the Ravens’ defense that has put a lockdown on the red zone through two games.
Our pick: Ravens 19-16
Dallas Cowboys (1-1) at St. Louis Rams (1-1)
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, at Edward Jones Dome, St. Louis – TV: FOX
- Keys to the game: The Cowboys insist there is no cause for concern despite QB Tony Romo sitting out practice midweek with a stiff back. Regardless, Dallas has transformed into a run-based offense centered on RB DeMarco Murray while the team attempts to keep Romo upright for the long haul — with hurdles such as the Rams’ explosive front four among the biggest hazards he’ll face all season. As fearsome as St. Louis’ pass rush is, the Rams are allowing 171 rushing yards per game and 5.5 yards per carry.
- The Rams are expected to start third-string QB Austin Davis for the second consecutive week with Shaun Hill still recovering from a strained quad. St. Louis has reached the red zone only four times in two games, scoring just one touchdown. The Rams could also be without WR Tavon Austin (knee) robbing them of their biggest threat to keep the Cowboys off-balance. It’s easy to say St. Louis will rely on its ground game, but RB Zac Stacy (3.8 yards per carry) won’t find many running lanes until Davis hits a few downfield passes to keep the safeties honest.
- Matchup to watch — Cowboys LT Tyron Smith vs. Rams DE Robert Quinn: Although he has yet to record a sack this season, Quinn has the ability to blow up any passing attack. Smith gave up a sack in the opener, but limited Quinn to four tackles and no sacks in last season’s meeting.
- Player spotlight — Cowboys RB DeMarco Murray: The numbers all around are staggering. With 51 carries, Murray is on pace for 408 for the season. The career high for the injury-prone back? 217. But expect more of the same considering his history against the Rams — 253 yards in 2011 and 175 last season, representing 14.4 percent of his career total of 2,966 yards.
- Fast facts: Romo is 3-0 with eight touchdowns against one interception in his career against the Rams. … Stacy has averaged 104.7 rushing yards in his past six home games.
As solid as the Rams’ front four is, the defense has been unable to stop the run. That plays into the hands of the Cowboys, who have quickly changed gears to an offense led by a healthy DeMarco Murray setting the stage.
Our pick: Cowboys 26-17
Green Bay Packers (1-1) at Detroit Lions (1-1)
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, at Ford Field, Detroit – TV: FOX
- Keys to the game: Unstoppable as Calvin Johnson might seem to the Packers – 32 catches for 606 yards (151.5 yards per game) and three touchdowns – Green Bay has never lost to Detroit with Aaron Rodgers under center (9-0). To preserve Rodgers, more is needed from RB Eddie Lacy than his 16 rushing yards in his rookie trip to Ford Field. The Lions know they are under the gun to get to Rodgers before he picks apart an injury-depleted secondary. The Lions have 6.0 sacks through two games and are second in the NFL in run defense.
- A tight game could be a trouble spot for the Lions. While Mason Crosby carries a streak of 18 consecutive field goals into Week 3, rookie kicker Nate Freese is just 2-for-5 for the Lions.
- Detroit’s struggles at Carolina exposed offensive line issues exacerbated by a one-dimensional offense. RB Joique Bell had 128 yards from scrimmage and Reggie Bush had 182 in the 40-10 blowout of Green Bay on Thanksgiving Day. A repeat is unlikely but the dedication to the cause is expected to buy QB Matt Stafford time to throw.
- Matchup to watch — Packers LG Josh Sitton vs. Lions DT Ndamukong Suh: Elite interior linemen with brawler traits have had entertaining engagements in previous meetings. Sitton’s success alongside rookie C Corey Linsley is vital to the Packers’ plan.
- Player spotlight — Packers WR Jordy Nelson: Targeted a league-high 30 times in two games with 18 receptions, Nelson could be licking his chops given Detroit’s secondary issues. However, he has just 13 catches for 159 yards and one touchdown in six games in the Motor City since his rookie season in 2008.
- Fast facts: Packers coach Mike McCarthy is 14-2 vs. Detroit. … A win would be the 700th in the regular-season history of the Packers. Chicago (731) is the only team currently in the 700 club.
The Packers tame the Lions yet again to start a critical stretch of three NFC North games in 12 days.
Our pick: Packers 28-23
Houston Texans (2-0) at New York Giants (0-2)
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, at MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, N.J. – TV: CBS
- Keys to the game: Ryan Fitzpatrick and Eli Manning have far different NFL resumes, the former a 10-year journeyman while the latter is a two-time Super Bowl MVP. Still, they entered the season with near equal reputations for turning the ball over frequently.
- Fitzpatrick has avoided turnovers during the Texans’ 2-0 start for three reasons: his offensive line that rarely allows him to be touched, RB Arian Foster leads the NFL with 55 carries and head coach Bill O’Brien emphasizes high-percentage passes between the numbers or short routes to the flat. The formula will not change unless the Giants can build a lead and force the Texans to change their approach.
- That’s a difficult task with Manning throwing four interceptions through two games. His struggles begin with poor offensive line play and the league’s 29th-ranked ground game. Manning is too often backed into the long passing downs in which he is prone to forcing the ball into coverage — and to a receiving corps minus recognizable names outside of Victor Cruz and Rueben Randle.
- Matchup to watch — Texans RB Arian Foster vs. Giants LB Jameel McClain: McClain is likely to slide from the strong side to the middle with Jon Beason (foot) sidelined. Mark Herzlich is another option, and whoever is in the middle faces the tall order of containing Foster between the tackles.
- Player spotlight — Giants WR Preston Parker: The former Florida State star will get the first opportunity at replacing No. 3 receiver Jerrel Jernigan (IR/foot). To put the Giants’ lack of depth in perspective, Parker was out of the NFL last season and has one catch for 29 yards this season. Rookie Corey Washington will also see increased snaps with 2014 first-rounder Odell Beckham (hamstring) out again.
- Fast facts: The Texans are 0-2 for the fifth consecutive season, although they lost their final 14 games in 2013. … The Giants are averaging 2.7 yards per carry and have a minus-6 turnover ratio.
The Texans’ schedule is shaping up very well for a strong run through the first half of the season. By that time we still may not have a true gauge on this team, but we do know Houston has the defense to continue Eli Manning’s woes and create short fields for Ryan Fitzpatrick to navigate.
Our pick: Texans 23-20
Indianapolis Colts (0-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2)
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, at EverBank Field, Jacksonville, Fla. – TV: CBS
- Keys to the game: The Colts believe they have been their own worst enemy during their 0-2 start, including a minus-3 turnover ratio and breakdowns on both sides of the ball that can be tightened up. RB Trent Richardson is still averaging just 3.7 yards per carry, but is coming off his best game as a Colt. Any semblance of balance could be lethal for the Jaguars, who have allowed 533 passing yards through two games despite registering eight sacks. The return of safety Jonathan Cyprien could help solve some of the issues in the back end.
- The real concern for Jacksonville begins with its offensive line, which crumpled at Washington last week with 10 sacks allowed and four additional hits on QB Chad Henne. Combined with a ground game averaging a meager 2.5 yards per carry, the immobile Henne is a sitting duck for opposing pass rushes. Something has to give, because the Colts have just one sack on the season.
- Matchup to watch — Colts linebackers vs. Jaguars TE Mickey Shuler Jr.: The son of former Jets and Eagles tight end Mickey Shuler Sr., the younger Shuler has gone from being claimed off waivers before the start of the season to starter by Week 3 due to injuries. With the team’s leading receiver Marcedes Lewis out, Shuler is key to providing Henne with an option down the seam to beat pressure.
- Player spotlight — Jaguars RT Austin Pasztor: Pasztor’s return from a broken hand ushered the exit of fill-in Cameron Bradfield from the roster altogether. Pasztor is a clear upgrade in blacking talent, although he will be playing with his hand heavily wrapped.
- Fast facts: QB Andrew Luck threw for 539 yards and three touchdowns in leading the Colts to a season sweep last season by a combined score of 67-13. … The Jaguars have been outscored 75-10 since leading Philadelphia 17-0 at halftime in Week 1.
Rarely are 0-2 teams in such starkly different situation. The Colts have lost to two playoff teams and are still the favorites to come out of the AFC South. The Jags have been pummeled over their past three halves, and coach Gus Bradley’s defense has been one of the main culprits.
Our pick: Colts 30-20
Kansas City Chiefs (0-2) at Miami Dolphins (1-1)
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, at Sun Life Stadium, Miami – TV: CBS
- Keys to the game: The Chiefs are confident in backup RB Knile Davis’ ability to handle the full workload, but Jamaal Charles (ankle) did return to practice Friday and may see limited action. Whoever is in the backfield is key to the offense’s goal of maintaining the ball control approach that kept last week’s game against Denver within reach. QB Alex Smith doesn’t push the ball downfield often but if he receives protection then chunk yards should be there – Buffalo had five plays of 20-plus yards against Miami last week and has experienced some issues in the back end.
- The pressure is on Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill to step up with RB Knowshon Moreno out and backfield mate Lamar Miller potentially at less than 100 percent. Tannehill is completing only 60.5 percent of his passes and although coach Joe Philbin said the inconsistency of the passing game is a unit-wide issue, Tannehill’s accuracy has faltered even on many completions, limiting yards after the catch. If the Chiefs are able to negate Miller and rookie Damien Williams, Tannehill’s questionable pass protection will be put to the test.
- Matchup to watch — Chiefs S Ron Parker vs. Dolphins S Michael Thomas: Parker, a former cornerback, is expected to start in place of injured Eric Berry (ankle) over safeties Kurt Coleman and Kelcie McCray. Thomas got the start last week ahead of veteran Louis Delmas. Which youngster can best hold up the back end of his team’s defense?
- Player spotlight — Chiefs RB/WR De’Anthony Thomas: The rookie is set to make his regular-season debut after missing two games with a hamstring pull, and the former Oregon Duck star could provide a much-needed dynamic element to the offense.
- Fast facts: The Chiefs are 0-2 for the eighth time in the past 11 years. In 15 previous seasons with 0-2 starts, Kansas City has finished with a winning record only one time (2006). … Dolphins WR Mike Wallace leads all AFC wide receivers with 39 touchdown catches since entering the league in 2009.
With both quarterbacks struggling to move the ball consistently through the air, this quickly becomes a battle of backup running backs. While the Dolphins’ Lamar Miller has added some bulk, Davis has better shown the ability to step in and handle the load as a feature back.
Our pick: Chiefs 20-17
Minnesota Vikings (1-1) at New Orleans Saints (0-2)
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, at Mercedes Benz Superdome, New Orleans – TV: FOX
- Keys to the game: All Vikings RB Matt Asiata has to do is capably fill the shoes of 10,000-yard rusher Adrian Peterson, and life should go swimmingly for QB Matt Cassel in the Saints’ hostile dome-field environs. Turnover-prone Cassel will get all the kitchen-sink blitz combos Saints coordinator Rob Ryan can muster after Ryan was publicly undressed (verbally, of course) by coach Sean Payton after another final-possession defeat in Cleveland.
- Saints QB Drew Brees has nine touchdowns in three career games in the series and will attack liberally, while New Orleans continues to push a running game averaging 5.7 yards per carry. Though Mark Ingram is out, Khiry Robinson and Pierre Thomas are capable and the Vikings could not slow New England’s ground game last week. A repeat would be crippling, opening Brees to fling it around to TE Jimmy Graham and rookie deep threat Brandin Cooks.
- Matchup to watch – Brees vs. Vikings CB Xavier Rhodes: FS Harrison Smith plays a rover role, and coach Mike Zimmer isn’t shy about asking corners to go solo on the edge. Rhodes, the team’s best corner, was a target of the Patriots. He missed a tackle that led to a 44-yard gain and was flagged three times in the third quarter. How short is his memory?
- Player spotlight – Vikings LB Chad Greenway: He is likely to give it a go with a heavily bandaged broken hand and, given his responsibilities in coverage against Thomas and Graham, tests are coming early and often.
- Fast facts: Graham has 24 TD catches in his last 24 home games. … The Vikings are 32nd in the NFL in passing with 166 yards per game.
The Saints get a ninth consecutive home victory using a familiar recipe – build a lead and get after the quarterback.
Our pick: Saints 33-16
Oakland Raiders (0-2) at New England Patriots (1-1)
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, at Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Mass. – TV: CBS
- Keys to the game: The Raiders have been dominated in time of possession while falling behind in both games this season and with their ground game averaging just 3.9 yards per carry. They must do a better job of providing a balanced attack for rookie QB Derek Carr, and the Patriots did give up 191 yards on 38 carries by Miami in Week 1.
- Plenty of attention has been paid to the Patriots’ passing game, which uncharacteristically ranks just 27th in the NFL. QB Tom Brady acknowledged he has to spread the ball around more with WR Julian Edelman and TE Rob Gronkowski receiving an inordinate percentage of Brady’s targets. For all of their struggles, the Raiders rank second in pass defense — partly due to playing from behind consistently and partly because they’re allowing a whopping 200 rushing yards per game. Against Minnesota last week, New England came out in more run sets, including a fullback in front of RB Stevan Ridley and rookie OT Cameron Fleming as a blocking tight end in unbalanced formations.
- Matchup to watch — Raiders FS Charles Woodson vs. Patriots QB Tom Brady: Teammates at Michigan in the mid-90s, the two veterans have known each other for 20 years and played numerous chess matches on the field over their future Hall of Fame NFL careers. At 37, Woodson doesn’t cover as much ground as he once did, but he still looks “phenomenal” to Brady, who will pay close attention to where his friend lines up before each snap.
- Player spotlight — Patriots WR Danny Amendola: Granted, he has had a few receptions called back due to penalties, but Amendola has just three catches for 16 yards — and a long of eight — through the first two games.
- Fast facts: Fleming, a fourth-round rookie, saw 27 snaps as a blocking tight end against the Vikings. … The Patriots are averaging 12 penalties per game, second-most in the NFL. … The Raiders have lost 14 consecutive games that have started at 1 p.m. ET.
The Raiders head to London following the game for next week’s matchup against the Dolphins at Wembley Stadium. Considering their porous run defense and recent record on the East Coast, they’ll board the plane 0-3.
Our pick: Patriots 27-16
San Diego Chargers (1-1) at Buffalo Bills (2-0)
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, at Ralph Wilson Stadium, Orchard Park, N.Y. – TV: CBS
- Keys to the game: QB Philip Rivers and TE Antonio Gates are playing like it’s 2009, but the one element of the Chargers’ offense that is missing is a LaDainian Tomlinson-like presence in the backfield. Danny Woodhead and Donald Brown are capable of filling niches, but neither is the three-down threat Ryan Mathews (knee; out) can be. San Diego leans instead on a controlled passing game with possession routes between the hashes, where Buffalo’s thinned linebacker corps will be a target.
- The Bills don’t mind a ball control tug-of-war, using their heavy machinery on the offensive line to wear down San Diego’s defense with RBs C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson each averaging 4.5 yards per carry. Rookie Sammy Watkins is bringing a big-play receiver to the mix. Watkins has size and natural hands and his matchup with veteran Brandon Flowers, who is expected to start after missing last week’s game due to a groin injury. The Chargers’ pass rush takes a serious hit with OLB Melvin Ingram out with a hamstring injury.
- Matchup to watch — Bills DT Marcell Dareus vs. Chargers C Rich Ohrnberger: San Diego lost Pro Bowl C Nick Hardwick for the season in the opener, and Ohrnberger had to step in against the Seahawks. He graded out pretty well, but the Chargers didn’t get much done in the running game. The Bills have Dareus and Kyle Williams in the middle of their line, and they will present a big challenge against the run and pass.
- Player spotlight — Bills LB Preston Brown: The rookie was drafted to be a backup, but suddenly has played every defensive snap in the games against Chicago and Miami, and he leads the Bills with 20 tackles to go along with a fumble recovery and return of 30 yards. Coach Doug Marrone said he “made a big jump” between weeks 1 and 2.
- Fast facts: The Bills have trailed for a total of 283 seconds this season. … Gates needs 21 touchdown receptions to tie Tony Gonzalez for most by a tight end in NFL history.
Buffalo is getting great play up front and at cornerback. If the Bills continue to avoid self-inflicted wounds, they get to 3-0 for the first time since 2008 (4-0).
Our pick: Bills 24-17
Tennessee Titans (1-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (2-0)
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, at Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati – TV: CBS
- Keys to the game: RB Giovani Bernard leads the Bengals with 11 catches and 141 receiving yards and he’s getting more help with the grunt work from rookie Jeremy Hill, a between-the-tackles runner with light feet averaging 4.9 yards per carry. The Titans have no great answer for either, and fresh off a tenderizing from Cowboys RB DeMarco Murray, Tennessee will get a heavy dose of both backs. The Bengals could also receive a boost with the return of WR A.J. Green, who returned to practice late in the week and said he expects to be ready after playing just five snaps last week before leaving with a toe injury. Paired with Mohamed Sanu, QB Andy Dalton has his field-stretching to open more running lanes.
- QB Jake Locker had a disastrous first half against Dallas — 4 of 12 passing, 26 yards, interception — and needs play-action to work to be effective against Cincinnati’s solid bump coverage scheme. A deep rotation of backs is getting the job done, but Shonn Greene and Dexter McCluster aren’t making splash plays to get defenders on their heels.
- Matchup to watch — Titans RB Shonn Greene vs. Bengals MLB Vinny Rey: Rey likely will be filling in for concussed Pro Bowler Vontaze Burfict and Greene has had success in this matchup with 267 yards (5.1-yard average) in three career games against Cincinnati.
- Player spotlight — Titans TE Delanie Walker: With 13 receptions and two touchdowns, Walker is enjoying coach Ken Whisenhunt’s offense and the Bengals tend to give up more yards between the hashes to possession targets.
- Fast facts: Cincinnati surrendered a total of three first-half points in its first two games. … Locker has won three of his past four starts on the road.
The Bengals get to the quarterback and give Locker only tight windows downfield to outside receivers. Barring a major breakout from the Titans’ ground game, Cincinnati strolls with or without Green.
Our pick: Bengals 25-14
Washington Redskins (1-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-1)
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, at Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia – TV: FOX
- Keys to the game: There is no four-corners type of stall tactic coming from the Redskins, but seeing a pair of second-half comebacks already from the Eagles, who swept the 2013 games with Washington, ball control is vital for QB Kirk Cousins and Company. It would help Washington’s cause if WR DeSean Jackson recovers from a sprained shoulder and can run deep routes against his former teammates. The Redskins have struggled with pass protection, allowing 6.0 sacks in 79 dropbacks, but RB Alfred Morris is third in the NFL this season with 176 rushing yards.
- The Eagles’ offense isn’t exactly flying. Still, the dynamic backfield combination of Darren Sproles as LeSean McCoy’s wing man has livened up coach Chip Kelly’s scheme while QB Nick Foles’ outside receivers work their way back from a largely idle training camp. Washington had 10 sacks last week, but barring a similar effort against one of the NFL’s most effective front fives, the Redskins will need a more conservative plan to contend with the speed and etch-a-sketch route combos coming this week.
- Matchup to watch — Eagles C Jason Kelce vs. Redskins ILB Perry Riley: Ready-set comes more rapidly in Philadelphia, where they’re running a play every 22.2 seconds. Riley is charged with getting his unit set and aligned twice as fast as usual.
- Player spotlight — Eagles LB Casey Matthews: He might get his first start since his rookie season in 2011 with Mychal Kendricks out due to a calf injury. Both Matthews and Emmanuel Acho took first-team reps this week. The Redskins like to involve their tight ends, and backup Niles Paul has 14 receptions this season.
- Fast facts: The Eagles have outscored their first two opponents 58-10 in the second half. … Of Foles’ 48 completions, 31 are to tight ends and running backs.
Kirk Cousins can keep the Redskins in games and with Alfred Morris running well, the burden goes to Washington’s defense to stifle Philadelphia’s Swiss-army knife offense with shaky secondary personnel.
Our pick: Eagles 33-23
San Francisco 49ers (1-1) at Arizona Cardinals (2-0)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, at University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, Ariz. – TV: FOX
- Keys to the game: The 49ers have burst out of the gates in their first two games, building big leads on the strength of more three- and four-receiver sets. However, the strength of the Cardinals’ defense lies in their secondary. Arizona is allowing just 2.6 yards per carry, but one of those games was against a Giants team with no running game to speak of.
- The Cardinals have suffered significant losses along their front seven and the 49ers would be well served to give RB Frank Gore plenty of opportunities to test the belly of the defense.
- The Cardinals’ offense is against expected to be steered by career backup Drew Stanton with Carson Palmer still only throwing lightly at midweek. Stanton performed well at the Giants, avoiding turnovers but completing only 48.3 percent of his passes. Arizona enjoys a size advantage outside with WRs Larry Fitzgerald and Malcom Floyd, an area Chicago exploited against San Francisco last week. Goal-line carries are likely to go to second-year back Stepfan Taylor with Jonathan Dwyer deactivated due to his off-field issues.
- Matchup to watch — 49ers RT Jonathan Martin vs. Cardinals DE Calais Campbell: After a quiet season opener on the stat sheet, Campbell dominated the Giants’ front line last week with 10 tackles and a sack. He draws another favorable matchup against Martin, who will likely start for the third consecutive week in place of Anthony Davis (hamstring). Martin was tagged with giving up a pair of sacks against Chicago last week.
- Player spotlight — 49ers TE Vernon Davis: The 49ers avoided a scare when an MRI on Davis’ knee this week turned up nothing major. He’s expected to play, and the Cardinals have been particularly vulnerable to tight ends, giving up 16 touchdowns and 1,156 yards last season — 61.8 percent higher than the league average. Davis was responsible for three of those touchdowns.
- Fast facts: The 49ers have won nine of the past 10 meetings. … The Cardinals’ first two opponents this season have targeted their tight ends 22 times, completing 16 for 187 yards and a touchdown.
The Cardinals have shown great resolve in stringing together consecutive victories despite injuries and off-field drama. Reality sets in against the 49ers, who can exploit weaknesses along Arizona’s front seven.
Our pick: 49ers 23-16
Denver Broncos (2-0) at Seattle Seahawks (1-1)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, at CenturyLink Field, Seattle – TV: CBS
- Keys to the game: Did the Chargers “crack the code” of the Seahawks’ dominating defense last week? Depends on your perspective. The Chargers’ game plan was hardly secret sauce — QB Philip Rivers stood at the line of scrimmage, diagnosed whether the Seahawks were in man or zone defense and then distributed the ball — largely underneath — to maintain manageable third-down distances along with the ground game pounding the ball between the tackles. Peyton Manning is fully capable of replicating that approach, especially with the return of WR Wes Welker from suspension. The tipping point could be whether the Seahawks fix the uncharacteristic poor tackling that led to many five-yard gains turning into 15 last week.
- Seattle contributed to the defense wearing down in the heat of San Diego by getting away from RB Marshawn Lynch (six carries) and sustained drives. Expect plenty of Beast Mode this week as the Seahawks attempt to reprise the physical approach that dominated the Broncos in the Super Bowl. Denver believes it has greatly improved its team speed on defense and that it will be able to contain WR Percy Harvin more effectively in the rematch.
- Matchup to watch — Broncos TE Julius Thomas vs. Seahawks pass defense: Seattle could not contain Antonio Gates, who had three touchdowns among his seven receptions last week. Gates made multiple excellent catches, but Thomas is faster and a difficult matchup for any linebacker or safety. Denver has used two-tight end formations on 79 of 155 snaps this season.
- Player spotlight — Seahawks TE Zach Miller: Often asked to stay back as a blocker, Miller had three penalties called against him last week (one declined). Along with Luke Willson, the tight ends will be asked to help rookie RT Justin Britt handle pass rusher Von Miller.
- Fast facts: The Seahawks beat the Broncos, 43-8, in Super Bowl XLVIII. … Manning needs three touchdowns to reach 500 for his career. … The Seahawks have won 18 of their past 19 home games, including playoffs.
An underlying issue in Seattle: injuries that have whittled away at the depth in the secondary. The Broncos can spread the field with three and four wide receivers and steadily move the ball down the field.
Our pick: Broncos 30-27
Carolina Panthers (2-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1)
Sunday, 8:30 p.m. ET, at Heinz Field, Pittsburgh – TV: NBC
- Keys to the game: Coach Mike Tomlin said the Steelers, who are giving up 172 rushing yards per game, must go back to fundamentals, including tackling. The real issue through two weeks is a combination of penalties (20) and big plays. Rookie WR Kelvin Benjamin is averaging 17.3 yards per reception, though most of Carolina’s big plays are produced by QB Cam Newton using his mobility and size to extend the action. Sound familiar?
- Carolina’s aggressive defense will see a similar challenge from QB Ben Roethlisberger. Though the Steelers put up only three field goals in six quarters since jumping on Cleveland with 27 points by halftime Week 1, RB Le’Veon Bell leads the league in yards from scrimmage and WR Antonio Brown remains a bright spot with consistent production.
- Matchup to watch — Panthers DE Mario Addison vs. Steelers RT Marcus Gilbert: Charged with four of the five sacks allowed by Pittsburgh this season, Gilbert will see plenty of odd fronts and blitz combinations from Carolina, not to mention Addison, Greg Hardy’s replacement who had 2.5 sacks last week.
- Player spotlight — Steelers WR Lance Moore: Back after two games on the sideline because of a groin injury, Moore brings a veteran presence in the slot and a familiarity with Carolina’s scheme from his days in the NFC South.
- Fast facts: Roethlisberger needs 313 yards passing to reach 35,000 and become only the 12th quarterback in NFL history to do so with one team. … The Panthers have an eight-game regular-season winning streak.
Rugged and physical, the Panthers are a throwback to the Steelers’ glory days. In a system that travels well, spotlight-savoring Newton will need to make plays in crunch time to match Roethlisberger’s bunch.
Our pick: Panthers 24-23
Chicago Bears (1-1) at N.Y. Jets (1-1)
Monday, 8:30 p.m. ET, at MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, N.J. – TV: ESPN
- Keys to the game: Chicago wants to get RB Matt Forte more involved. He draws a third consecutive difficult 3-4 front but there are winnable matchups for QB Jay Cutler across the formation. The Jets are licking wounds after Packers WR Jordy Nelson put up 209 receiving yards in a huge Week 2 comeback. The Bears cannot be overeager to get after CBs Dee Milliner (ankle) and Antonio Allen given the unpredictable nature of New York’s blitz packages.
- On the flip side, Jets QB Geno Smith was too conservative at Green Bay and at a meager 5.5 yards per attempt, must open it up or be exposed to defensive coordinator Mel Tucker’s linebacker blitzes. In his favor, the Gang Green running game of Chris Ivory and Chris Johnson brings balance to the offense and should see big-play opportunities in the open field against a defense that has been dinged by missed tackles.
- Matchup to watch — Jets CB Antonio Allen vs. Brandon Marshall: Size is typically Marshall’s edge, but Allen, a linebacker in college and safety for two NFL seasons, is no pushover. Marshall is averaging just 3.9 yards after the catch dating to the start of the 2013 season.
- Player spotlight — Bears DE Willie Young: With 3.0 sacks playing only in sub packages, Young is making waves as a pass-rush specialist who needs to be accounted for when lined up over RT Breno Giacomini.
- Fast facts: Marshall has seven 100-yard games on Monday Night Football. … Jets WR Eric Decker’s 33 touchdown catches since 2012 leads all AFC receivers.
WHO WILL WIN AND WHY
Defensive issues exist for the Bears, and it’s up to QB Geno Smith to find them before Chicago’s pass rush gets home. The Bears are capable of putting up plenty of points if they protect the ball.
Our pick: Jets 25-20
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3) at Atlanta Falcons (2-1)
Score: Falcons 56-14
The Atlanta Falcons punished Tampa Bay on the ground and through the air as they blasted the Buccaneers 56-14 on Thursday with Devin Hester setting a record for touchdown returns.
The Falcons scored 21 points in the first quarter and grabbed a 35-0 lead by halftime at the Georgia Dome.
Hester scored two first-half touchdowns, the second of which was from a 62-yard punt return to set a NFL record with the 20th TD of his career from a kick return.
Hester danced his way into the end zone with his best impersonation of Deion Sanders, the Hall of Famer he passed to set the mark.
Sanders’ total includes interception returns, while Hester has reached the feat purely on special teams – including one return of a missed field goal for a score.
“It’s tough to break the record of the guy who is my No. 1 mentor,” Hester told reporters, of his close relationship with Sanders. “I’m kind of emotional right now.”
Quarterback Matt Ryan threw for 286 yards and three TDs while the Falcons also got three rushing touchdowns and one interception return as they scored the game’s first 56 points.
Wide receiver Julio Jones had a banner night with 161 receiving yards and two touchdowns.
“We had a tough loss last week. We needed to start fast and we were able to do that,” Ryan said. “When we’re out there and rolling we can be pretty good. The biggest thing for us is we need to be consistent week to week.”
The Buccaneers finally got on the scoreboard in the fourth quarter where backup quarterback Mike Glennon tossed a score in relief of starter Josh McCown before linebacker Danny Lansanah intercepted and returned it 27 yards for their second touchdown.
After finishing 4-12 last season, Tampa Bay was hoping to turn a corner this year with first-year head coach Lovie Smith.
Thus far the Buccaneers have not solved their woes as they have fallen to 0-3.