Pretenders, contenders still not evident

We’ve seen a lot of teams exceed preseason expectations — Buccaneers, Packers, Lions, Redskins and Titans, to name a few — while others have woefully underperformed, such as the Chargers, Bears, Saints and Rams. Oddsmakers have been adjusting their power ratings, and it’s up to handicappers to figure out what teams will continue to play the way they have been and which ones will revert to their expected form.

By doing so, bettors can find value on or against teams the oddsmakers have overadjusted on or ones the public continues to bet no matter how much the lines get inflated.

The Steelers are a team I didn’t like coming into the season. I bet against them with the Browns in Week 1 and lost badly, then passed on their next two games. Last week, I went with the Cardinals plus-51/2 to knock off the overrated Steelers, and they did. This week, the Steelers are being backed as 6-point favorites over the Seahawks. I’ll take Seattle.

The Cardinals, a middle-of-the-pack team, exposed the Steelers by shutting down their running game and winning the battles on offense, defense and special teams in the second half in a 21-14 upset. The Steelers’ only scores came on a fluke third-and-26 pass play and a TD pass in garbage time.

But this play isn’t just a go-against the Steelers. The Seahawks are among the NFL’s upper-echelon teams. The Achilles’ wing of the Seahawks in recent years has been that they do great at home but struggle on the road. However, their two games away from home this year were a 23-20 loss at Arizona and a 23-3 win at San Francisco last week.

Here are my other four plays (home team in CAPS):

• Buccaneers (+91/2) over COLTS — I didn’t think much of the Bucs heading into the season, but they’ve had an impressive 3-1 start. Jeff Garcia has picked up where he left off last year when he led the Eagles to the playoffs, and Cadillac Williams will be ably replaced by Michael Pittman and Earnest Graham, who should find running room with Colts safety Bob Sanders likely out or limited with a rib injury. But the key is the defense, which has allowed a league-low 11 points per game and can stand up to an offense that will be without Marvin Harrison.

• Lions (+31/2) over REDSKINS — The Lions have impressed me more. Say what you will about the Bears, but last week’s win was a statement game for the Lions, who are trying to back up quarterback Jon Kitna’s prediction they would win 10 games. The Redskins’ best chance is to keep the score down.

• Falcons (+8) over TITANS — I’ve been on the Titans as much as anyone the past year, but this line is way overadjusted. After being an underdog in 12 of their past 13 games, they’re being asked to cover more than a TD. The Falcons showed pride in beating the Texans.

• Chargers (Pick) over BRONCOS — Everyone has jumped off the Chargers’ bandwagon, so that’s when it’s time for a contrarian to jump on. The Chargers are 1-3, but the other teams in the AFC West are 2-2, so they’re in the playoff hunt. This could be where the Chargers turn their season around against a team that hasn’t been impressive and could be 0-4. The Broncos also will be without top receiver Javon Walker.

Last week: 2-3 against the spread

Season: 10-10

Las Vegas-based handicapper Dave Tuley also writes for the Daily Racing Form and ViewFromVegas.com.