Raiders will have a winning season if three things happen
As Pete Carroll begins his first year in charge of the Raiders, he is not interested in any prolonged rebuild or ramp-up period to get the franchise turned around.
He wants to win now.
“I’ve been winning 10 games a year for 20 years or something, you know?” Carroll said. “I mean, what are my expectations? We are going to win a bunch, and I don’t care who hears that.”
How feasible is that for a team coming off a four-win season? It helps that a new quarterback is in place in Geno Smith, and that dynamic rookie running back Ashton Jeanty is in the fold to bolster an offense that already featured one of the best tight ends in the game in Brock Bowers.
Certainly, new offensive coordinator Chip Kelly will be an upgrade in that role, too.
But for the Raiders to win more games than they lose, and potentially make a legitimate playoff run, these three things must happen:
Finish on right side of turnover differential
The Raiders were minus-16 in turnover differential last season, giving the ball away 29 times and taking it away just 13 times. That tied for the second-worst margin in the NFL and was just one off the pace for the worst mark overall.
They are doomed this season if they don’t improve in that area, and will severely hamper themselves if they don’t do so by a significant margin.
To put it in perspective, 12 of the 14 teams that made the playoffs last season finished in the top 13 in that category, and 13 of the 14 playoff participants finished on the plus side of the differential. Including seven by double digits.
Only the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who were minus-5 in turnover differential, made the playoffs without winning that battle. Tampa Bay finished with a 10-7 record.
Few teams are good enough to give the ball up more than they take it away over the course of the season and still win more games than they lose. The Raiders are not one of them. The goal will be to finish on the right side of this category, but even if they can split evenly, they will give themselves a chance to have a winning season.
Improvement in red zone
The Raiders did a lot of work in the red zone during their offseason practices and training camp. It makes total sense considering how bad they were in that area last season.
Offensively, the Raiders ranked 26th in red zone touchdown percentage last year, converting just 48.89 percent of their trips to the opponent’s 20-yard or closer into touchdowns.
Defensively, they ranked 22nd in the NFL by giving up a touchdown 60.34 percent of the time opponents advanced to their red zone.
Neither number is sustainable for a winning team, let alone a legitimate playoff contender.
The addition of Smith, Jeanty and wide receivers Dont’e Thornton and Amari Cooper, combined with what is expected to be a better offensive line, could improve the team’s likelihood of converting more red zone trips into touchdowns. Especially with holdovers Bowers, Jakobi Meyers and Michael Mayer, each of whom is expected to be a featured weapon in that area of the field.
Smith’s Seattle Seahawks ranked a respectable 14th in red zone touchdown scoring percentage last year, with a conversion rate of 57.14. That said, Smith needs to be better for the Raiders to make a significant leap forward.
Smith completed 53.70 percent of his 54 red zone passing attempts last year, which was superior to playoff quarterbacks Matthew Stafford (46.48), Justin Herbert (50.88) and Josh Allen at 52.46 percent. But Smith’s four red zone interceptions led the NFL.
Smith has to be better than that to give the Raiders a legitimate chance to win more games than they lose.
Defensive sacks, quarterback pressures must improve
The Raiders’ 38 sacks ranked 21st in the NFL, with only the Rams (38) and Detroit Lions (37) making the playoffs with as many or fewer sacks.
They ranked 15th in quarterback pressures with 133 and 23rd in quarterback hurry percentage per drop back at 8.6 percent. It’s no wonder their 10 interceptions ranked 23rd in the NFL, or that the 3,676 yards passing they surrendered ranked 18th, and that they were tied for the fifth-most touchdown passes given up at 29.
This year in particular, the Raiders must create more pass-rush pressure to protect an inexperienced group of cornerbacks. That means getting more help for defensive end Maxx Crosby, who played admirably while dealing with a seasonlong ankle injury.
The return of Malcolm Koonce, who missed all of last season with a knee injury, should help. As will the improvement of third-year defensive end Tyree Wilson, who delivered his best training camp by far since being drafted seventh overall by the Raiders in 2023.
The Raiders will also use linebackers Devin White and Jamal Adams to supplement the pass rush. Both were heavily involved in that area during training camp.
Contact Vincent Bonsignore at vbonsignore@reviewjournal.com. Follow @VinnyBonsignore on X.