Soft numbers make basketball profitable
Preseason polls are out, preview magazines are published, and power ratings are set. Almost all of them indicate Indiana, led by 7-foot sophomore Cody Zeller, is about to emerge as the dominant team of this college basketball season.
The Hoosiers are ranked No. 1 now, but who cares? The polls are as meaningless as political campaign promises.
Over the next five months, power ratings will be adjusted nightly, and bettors can forget getting a day off. Nothing beats the nonstop action of betting basketball, and there are around 350 college teams to know not named Indiana.
From A to Z – and that’s Arizona to Zeller – there is a lot to study. It’s always entertaining to bet the games in March, but learning as much as possible about teams now can make November far more profitable than the NCAA Tournament.
“It should be a winning first month of the season for a really good handicapper,” said Kenny White, DonBest.com analyst and former chief oddsmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants. “I think it’s tougher for the oddsmakers.”
Seeing a perceived 2-point edge in an NFL game is a rarity at this point in the season. Finding much bigger edges is commonplace in college basketball. There are far more games on the rotation, many uncertainties with injuries and unknown players, and as a result the oddsmakers post softer numbers.
After combing through most of the 400 pages of the Blue Ribbon yearbook, here is an alphabetical scouting report with some fearless forecasts:
Arizona is my pick to win the Pacific-12 Conference. Sean Miller is not only a sharp coach, he’s also an outstanding recruiter. He brought in senior point guard Mark Lyons, a transfer from Xavier, to run a talented young team co-starring Nick Johnson, Solomon Hill, Brandon Ashley and Grant Jerrett.
Brad Stevens missed the NCAA Tournament last season after coaching Butler to back-to-back Final Four appearances. The Bulldogs, who have moved to the Atlantic 10, will be strong again with the addition of 3-point sniper Rotnei Clarke, an Arkansas transfer.
Connecticut is close to irrelevant, banned from the postseason and missing retired Jim Calhoun as coach.
Doug McDermott continues to be the best thing about Omaha, Neb. McDermott, a 6-foot-8-inch junior forward, returns after scoring 22.9 points per game for a 29-win Creighton team that will be tough again.
Gonzaga returns four starters from a team that won 26 games, so not much has changed.
Isaiah Canaan is back to run the point for Murray State, off a 31-2 season.
John Calipari did a great coaching job last season, winning 38 games and his first national championship. But most of that team is in the NBA now, and oddsmakers will overvalue the Wildcats early in the season.
Kansas State lost the nation’s toughest coach, Frank Martin, to South Carolina and replaced him with Bruce Weber, formerly at Illinois.
Larry Brown has returned to the college game at Southern Methodist. The 71-year-old’s act will get old fast.
Michigan is loaded, and so is the Big Ten. Freshman center Mitch McGary is a name to remember, as are Trey Burke, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Glenn Robinson III.
Michigan State has plenty of talent for coach Tom Izzo to work with, and freshman guard Gary Harris will help the Spartans replace Draymond Green.
Shabazz Muhammad, the nation’s top-ranked freshman from Bishop Gorman High School, continues to wait out an NCAA investigation. UCLA coach Ben Howland has a good team that will be overrated without Muhammad.
UNLV will win 27 or 28 games and at least a share of the Mountain West regular-season title. But with so many new faces, the Rebels might not show their upside until January.
“I have Indiana as only a 4½-point favorite over UNLV on a neutral court. It would be a battle,” White said. “Indiana is the best team, but there are probably 30 teams within eight points of them.”
Zeller and the Hoosiers are beginning the season on top, and on the cover of Sports Illustrated, but they lack great guard play and won’t finish No. 1.
■ CLOSING NUMBERS – My focus remains on football handicapping, at least until this hot streak turns cold. I went 4-1 again last week to run my record to 29-8 the past seven weeks in this spot. Here are five plays for Saturday (home team in CAPS):
IOWA (-4½) over Purdue; Penn State (+9) over NEBRASKA; TEXAS CHRISTIAN (+7½) over Kansas State; COLORADO STATE (+2) over Unlv; UNR (+3½) over Fresno State.
Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts “The Las Vegas Sportsline” weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM, 98.9 FM). Follow him on Twitter: @mattyoumans247.