Economy still uncertain, but Vegas small businesses staying optimistic

Sales went up for the Mediterranean restaurant in west Las Vegas by nearly 3 percent – but food and labor costs went up more than 50 percent.

But 2025, so far, has been a different story.

“People are coming out and spending money kind of like they used to,” said Jeff Ecker, the restaurant’s director of operations. “It’s similar to the same patterns as before we got hit with the terrible inflation of the last few years. “

A new economic sentiment survey paints a mixed picture on how small business owners are thinking and feeling about the future. The monthly small business optimism index produced by the National Federation of Independent Business showed some business owners are feeling more optimistic and less unsure about the future but are still struggling with a stagnant labor market and uncertain economic forces.

“Optimism increased slightly in August with more owners reporting stronger sales expectations and improved earnings,” Bill Dunkelberg, the organization’s chief economist, said in a news release. “While owners have cited an improvement in overall business health, labor quality remained the top issue on Main Street.”

Labor market a top concern

The monthly sentiment index measures and quantifies small business owners’ response to questions about 10 indicators that explore labor, capital expenses, expansion and sale outlooks, inventory and other factors. It notes that hiring remains weak and that “labor quality” continues to be the top concern for business owners.

“Unfilled job openings are disappearing, but not because they are filled,” according to the report for August.

Other economic data across the country shows a sluggish job market. This month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics revised earlier estimates on the recent pace of job growth. The agency said the country added 911,000 fewer jobs than previously estimated over the 12 months that ended in March.

Even though that report is tied to hiring activity six months ago, economists say the revision was not unexpected. Monthly employment data is revised three times, and the March 2025 data will not be considered finalized until the February 2026 report.

“It wasn’t surprising to me, given that we know that immigration has slowed down significantly,” said Andrew Woods, executive director of UNLV’s Center for Business and Economic Research. “We know that the job pool out there of available workers is shrinking (and) at the same time, firms are not hiring as much as they used to, either.”

At Paymon’s, Ecker said finding the right candidates has been one of the restaurant’s biggest challenges. Candidates are not qualified or are too risky to hire because of their job-hopping, he said.

“The local restaurants really are up against it when it comes to attracting quality candidates, and you can’t blame people for wanting to make more money,” he said.

Watching the Strip

Ecker said his team will be watching the tourism trends coming out of the Strip. He said he’s worried that viral videos talking about the visitation slump could have ripple effects in the community.

“A lot of our customers in the local market are service employees that work on the Strip,” Ecker said, “so when they tighten their belts, it becomes kind of tough because they do make a really decent living, and they’re great tippers, so they really help a business when they go out. So, when they’re hurting, we’re hurting.”

That sentiment is shared with others in the Las Vegas Valley. Clark County Commissioner William McCurdy II said he heard similar concerns from tourism and industry-adjacent businesses when the county launched a grant program for District D, which includes portions of Sunrise Manor and parts of the city of Las Vegas and North Las Vegas.

The grants provide up to $5,000 for home-operated businesses and up to $10,000 for businesses with storefronts with less than 20 employees. About half of the funds have been allocated through the partnering organizations, the Las Vegas Urban Chamber of Commerce and the Nevada Latin Chamber of Commerce, according to McCurdy.

McCurdy said he was prompted to organize the program because it hadn’t been done in his district before and because he knew entrepreneurs were feeling uncertain about the future.

“A lot of small business owners are concerned about the decline in traffic within their storefronts,” he said. “Not all industries are experiencing the same type of decline, but there’s certainly a level of concern and anxiety, particularly for industries that are focused on tourism dollars.”

Optimism about the future persists

Joan Weber, owner of New Heights Lending, said she is feeling optimistic about the future. Her mortgage brokerage firm dealt with losses from 2022 to 2024 as inflationary pressures continued and squeezed would-be buyers in the housing market.

Weber said she considered closing her business but held off because she believed it would see a turnaround from the financial policies of the Trump administration. Still, she believes it will take more time.

“I feel like next year is going to be an incredible year for mortgages. Whether it’s purchases or (refinancing), we have a long way to go to dig ourselves out of a hole that we have put most consumers in,” Weber said.

She said her biggest concern for her customer base is that they are fighting through credit card debt and interest rates that still need to fall.

“The crux of the problem that people have is that they can’t afford home ownership, they can’t afford rent, they can’t afford to buy, and so people have to make a choice: OK, do I pay my car payment so I can make it to work, or do I pay my credit card? Or do I pay my rent and risk not making my car payment, having that repo’ed then I can’t make it to work? This is, this is the everyday struggle of most, most Americans.”

McCurdy expects the same.

“I believe that we have to continue to give it time,” he said.

“Here on the Board of County Commissioners, we’re still seeing projects come forward every two weeks,” he continued. “We’re still growing. That means that there’s still a level of optimism as well as investment that’s happening in our county, and we’re very happy about that.”

Contact McKenna Ross at mross@reviewjournal.com. Follow @mckenna_ross_ on X.