Close GOP primaries seen as election enters ‘crunch time’

CARSON CITY — With voter registration closing Tuesday and early voting beginning Saturday, candidates in tough primary battles are working overtime to win support ahead of the June 10 election.

Voter turnout is expected to be low, so close races, particularly in several hotly contested Republican contests, could be decided by razor-thin margins.

Secretary of State Ross Miller is projecting statewide voter turnout of 15 percent to 20 percent.

Statewide primary turnout in 2012, which included a U.S. Senate race, was 18.9 percent.

Turnout in Clark County in the June 2012 primary was 16.2 percent. County Republicans came out in bigger numbers, however, at 22.6 percent.

There is no U.S. Senate race this year, and no presidential election, potentially making turnout even lower and every vote that much more critical.

The top contest on the ballot, the governor’s race, is drawing little excitement with incumbent GOP Gov. Brian Sandoval expected to easily win another term in November. He faces only minor opposition from four Republicans in the primary and no solid Democrat in the fall.

The biggest GOP primary battle is the statewide lieutenant governor’s race pitting businesswoman Sue Lowden against state Sen. Mark Hutchison. Sandoval has endorsed Hutchison, while Lowden has worked to position herself as the more conservative choice.

Republican legislative races offer some interest, with a challenge from the right to Senate Minority Leader Michael Roberson, R-Las Vegas, by Carl Bunce, who ran Ron Paul’s 2012 presidential campaign.

Several Republican incumbents in the Assembly also face conservative challengers, including Minority Leader Pat Hickey, R-Reno; Randy Kirner, R-Reno; and Lynn Stewart, R-Henderson.

Hickey faces a challenge from self-described “constitutional conservative” and retired attorney Rick Fineberg. Kirner faces Lisa Krasner, who has the backing of former GOP Gov. Jim Gibbons. Republican Robb Archie is a third candidate in the Assembly District 26 primary race. Stewart faces software engineer Richard Bunce.

A major concern cited by many of the challengers in the contested legislative primaries is the incumbents’ votes to extend a $650 million package of tax increases into the current budget as sought by Sandoval. Sandoval proposed the tax package extension through June 30, 2015 as a way to avoid further cuts to public education and vital state services.

Eric Herzik, a political science professor at the University of Nevada, Reno, said it will be interesting to see if there is a conservative backlash from Republican voters.

Sandoval is popular, but he was unable to win support for his choice for Republican Party chairman in 2013, Herzik noted. Robert Uithoven, a lobbyist for the Las Vegas Sands Corp., was rejected in favor of Michael McDonald.

Now it is time to see how Hutchison, Sandoval’s hand-picked running mate, will do with the GOP rank-and-file, he said.

“I’m not suggesting he will lose,” Herzik said. “I think he is the favorite. But it is not a sure thing.”

Victories by the more conservative GOP candidates would represent a significant shift in the Legislature but Chuck Muth, a libertarian-leaning Republican activist, said challengers face significant obstacles.

“In the 20 to 25 years I have been active in politics I have never seen so many credible, conservative candidates running against establishment-backed moderate candidates,” he said. “The question is: Do they have enough money and the campaign management needed to pull off major upsets?

“Because of low voter turnout, they will have a shot,” he said. “But they are definitely still the underdogs.”

Muth predicts statewide GOP turnout at 20 percent to 22 percent.

Muth has encouraged candidates to challenge GOP incumbents who take positions on issues he considers contrary to the party’s platform and principles.

He said Stewart might be the most vulnerable GOP legislative incumbent because Bunce has raised significant funds and is working hard at the grassroots level.

Hickey said Muth, whom he noted has not always been a Republican, is a driving force in the challenges of incumbent GOP lawmakers.

“These challenges to incumbents give us the opportunity to reconnect with our base,” Hickey said. “I believe we will all prevail. But it does result in incumbents spending more time, more money and more sweat equity to make sure we hold on to our seats in the face of a lot of charges that, frankly, used to be leveled against Democrats.”

Moderate Republicans are facing such charges because of the extreme positions of many of the primary challengers, he said.

Hickey said he makes no apologies for supporting Sandoval by voting to continue the tax package to stave off deeper cuts in public education. Supporting the tax package extension was the right decision, and GOP incumbents who did so will be rewarded by the majority of Republicans and Nevadans who support making sensible decisions, he said.

“We support sacrifice where needed but not to the point of dismantling the state education system,” Hickey said.

Herzik said Kirner might have one of the toughest battles facing GOP lawmakers. Kirner has been criticized by Muth and others for supporting a bill that allowed the Washoe County Commission to raise taxes to fix older schools. The measure ultimately failed when the commission did not take a vote.

Kirner also represents a conservative district that previously elected Sharron Angle, Herzik said.

“I don’t expect huge upsets,” Herzik said. “But if mainstream GOP voters don’t show up and take it for granted that Sandoval will win, the down-ballot candidates probably are and should be a bit nervous.”

Contact Capital Bureau reporter Sean Whaley at swhaley@reviewjournal.com or 775-687-3900. Follow him on Twitter @seanw801.