Big Four only plausible trophy contenders

Let’s not kid ourselves here. It doesn’t take Paul the Octopus to know what will happen during the World Cup.

Soccer fans across the country will jam into pubs with stereotypical British names such as The Pig and Whistle or Ye Olde King’s Head to watch matches. Social media timelines will explode with World Cup hashtags and outdated vuvuzela references. And the haters will say there’s not enough scoring.

Then, after the U.S. crashes out against Ghana and host Brazil wins the title, the sport will add a few more American fans and critics will refuse to get on board while simultaneously admitting, “That wasn’t as bad as I thought it would be.”

It happens every four years.

Despite its polarizing effect on American sports fans, the World Cup will be more popular here than ever before, a monthlong event that combines all the best features of “March Madness” and the Olympics.

It’s politics and patriotism and super-hot Dutch women wearing orange wigs and bikinis singing “Hup Holland Hup!” as Arjen Robben cuts in from the right wing and dives to the turf for the 12th time.

“Everyone has a reason to support a team, whether it’s their heritage or they’re from there,” LVH oddsmaker Jeff Sherman said.

Oh, and unlike the Olympics, you can wager on the World Cup in Nevada sports books. If you thought betting on the NFL is agony, try sweating out the final 30 minutes of a one-goal soccer match.

Since our favorite underwater oracle from the 2010 tournament went to the great coral reef in the sky and can’t provide predictions, here’s a few things to look for over the next month:

■ WHO’S GOING TO WIN? — Brazil, Argentina, Germany or Spain. Take your pick.

The hosts are the 5-to-2 favorite at the LVH and led by goal-scoring sensation Neymar. Brazil could replace central defender Thiago Silva with Wanderlei Silva and the Selecao would still win its group.

The rest of the Big Four have major question marks entering the tournament. Second-choice Argentina (4-1) has gotten one goal in two World Cups from superstar Lionel Messi and doesn’t have much on defense. Germany (5-1) hasn’t won a major trophy since 1996 and is banged up, while defending champion Spain (13-2) appears worn down after dominating international soccer since 2008.

Still, there is a steep drop off to Belgium (20-1) and Italy (20-1) after those sides.

“It’s hard for me to see past Brazil and Argentina, but I definitely cannot see past the top four,” Sherman said. “I’d be very surprised if one of the teams at 20-1 or lower end up actually raising the trophy.”

■ SAM’S ARMY — The U.S. is 100-1 at the LVH to win the tournament, and coach Jurgen Klinsmann admitted his team won’t win it. Way to go out on a limb there, Klinsi.

The larger issue is whether the Americans can emerge from a difficult group that includes Germany, Ghana and Portugal.

The LVH has the U.S. at plus-300 to advance to the round of 16, and there is some value in the Americans, according to handicapper Ken Thomson of SportsXradio.com. If they do move on, maybe pundits will finally stop trying to convince fans that Landon Donovan should have been on the 23-man roster. He shouldn’t.

“It’s an all-or-nothing game versus Ghana,” Thomson said of Monday’s Group G opener.

■ BLAME IT ON RIO — A quick history lesson: Brazil is unbeaten on home soil since dropping a friendly to Paraguay in 2002. The Selecao haven’t lost a meaningful match (World Cup qualifier or tournament) at home since 1975.

And playing at home has proven to be a huge factor in the World Cup. The host country has won the trophy six times, and there are numerous examples of home-field advantage helping teams advance further than expected, including the United States in 1994 and South Korea in 2002.

It is also worth noting that of the seven previous World Cups held in North or South America, no European team has won.

Micah Roberts, an analyst for “The Linemakers” on SportingNews.com, believes teams such as Chile (4-1 to win its group), Ecuador (4-1) and Uruguay (7-4) could be dangerous in the group stage as a result of playing close to home.

“You have to look at the South American teams,” Roberts said. “I don’t want to eliminate Europe, but the home-continent advantage is a huge, huge edge. Even Mexico has to be given consideration to a degree.”

■ NOT JUST WAFFLES — It’s too late to jump on the Belgium bandwagon as Eden Hazard and Co. emerged as the trendy dark horse long ago. The talent-laden Red Devils were 250-1 to win the tournament at the LVH four years ago and went as low as 12-1 in December before settling at 20-1.

“The value is dried up,” Roberts said.

However, there is value in betting against Belgium’s inexperience on the big stage, and Thomson believes Russia (11-5 to win group) could pull off the upset in Group H.

Thomson is high on France, which is 25-1 to win the tournament and has plenty of talent despite losing winger Franck Ribery to injury.

He also likes Japan (15-4 to win group) in a pedestrian Group C and is picking Croatia (plus-110 to advance), rather than Mexico, to emerge from Group A with Brazil.

“I’m betting against Mexico,” Thomson said. “If the U.S. didn’t bail them out versus Panama, we’re not even talking about Mexico.”

Contact reporter David Schoen at dschoen@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-5203. Follow him on Twitter: @DavidSchoenLVRJ.