Pundit: Nevada Senate race still ‘leans Republican”

As political analyst Larry Sabato updated his outlook today on the 2012 Senate races, he still lists Nevada as "leaning Republican."

Sabato and colleagues at the University of Virginia's Center for Politics say Democratic Rep. Shelley Berkley "has seemed to weather the controversy" from the unhelpful New York Times story in September about her advocacy on health issues that dovetailed with the interests of her doctor husband. Still, that piece still is likely to resurface in Republican attack ads, they note.

"That and (Sen. Dean) Heller’s status as a quasi-incumbent means that he has the slight edge over Berkley for now," according to their widely read "Crystal Ball" report.

Still, they write, Berkley provides another rare opportunity for Democrats to play offense on Republican turf.

Overall, Sabato says things are looking up for Democrats, who appear to have found strong candidates in Massachusetts (consumer advocate Elizabeth Warren), Arizona (former surgeon general Richard Carmona) and North Dakota (former state attorney general Heidi Heitkamp).

While Republicans still are positioned to win the four seats they need to gain Senate control "we also can see a conceivable if unlikely path for the Democrats to retain control if the breaks go their way, especially if President Obama picks up steam in his re-election bid," the analysts say.