Perspectives on the new decade

First of two parts.

On the premise that 2009 was a crummy year that few people want to relive, I've chosen to look ahead today rather than look back. And since 2010 doesn't promise to be much better than '09, I'm going to focus on the new decade rather than simply the new year.

For this first of two parts, I asked a few Stephens Media colleagues -- authorities in their fields -- to give me some predictions for the new decade. What will unfold in Nevada over the next 10 years?

* Steve Sebelius, editor of the CityLife weekly newspaper and a respected political commentator, believes Nevada, battered by the worst recession in decades, "will finally be forced to update its outdated and ineffective tax system."

The state's political leaders, on both sides of the aisle, have known for years that a major tax overhaul is needed, but they haven't had the political will to get it done. Sebelius, however, predicts it will happen in the next few years.

"A business revenue tax will be implemented," he says," possibly to replace the current modified business tax, otherwise known as the payroll tax. This will not be an easy process, and it likely won't happen until mid-decade, after redistricting in 2011 and the re-election in 2014 of whomever wins the governor's mansion in 2010. But it will eventually happen."

Sebelius also sees mining tax reform on the horizon. "The state's mining industry will lose the tax deductions enshrined in state law, and pay more in taxes for essentially digging up publicly owned minerals -- a finite resource -- from publicly owned land," he says.

The gambling industry, for decades the dominant player in politics, will see its influence begin to wane, Sebelius says. A more diversified economy, led by renewable energy, will be a factor.

"Casinos will always have influence and sway in Carson City, but the table of power players will grow larger," he predicts. "This, too, will be a slow process, since the distribution of power in democratic systems tends to diversify at a glacial pace, but it will noticeably start to happen over the next 10 years."

* Hernando Amaya, editor of El Tiempo, a weekly Spanish-language newspaper, says the future of the Hispanic community in Las Vegas hinges on immigration reform.

"The growth and cultural immersion of the Hispanic community in Nevada in the next decade will depend in large part on the approval of sound immigration reform that will allow more than 12 million undocumented persons to have a real presence in the life of the country," Amaya says. "On the other hand, without sound reform, the growth and participation in society will decrease or at least grow at a slower pace."

Assuming immigration reform passes, Amaya sees Hispanics increasing their political clout in Nevada and beyond. "It's likely that the number of Hispanic politicians in the Congress will grow and we will have a strong presidential Hispanic candidate," he says. "There will be a bigger Hispanic presence in the Nevada Legislature."

The maturation of the Hispanic community will mean more educated citizens with more opportunities for advancement in the workplace and in leadership roles in society, Amaya says.

Today, the Hispanic population in Las Vegas is fractured, with multiple groups scrambling to protect their positions. With immigration reform, Amaya sees a greater chance of the community coming together.

* Steve Guiremand, editor of Rebelnation.net, says Las Vegas could play host to a long-sought major professional sports franchise by decade's end.

"If, and that's a big if, a new state-of-the-art arena is ever built, I could eventually see an NBA team giving Las Vegas a shot," he says. "Commissioner David Stern seems to be softening his stance on gaming recently. I don't think there is enough interest in hockey for the NHL to succeed here once the novelty wears off."

Guiremand says there's almost no chance the National Football League will land in Las Vegas, while Major League Baseball is a long shot at best. In order to play big-league ball in the Mojave Desert, you'd need to raise as much as $1 billion for an indoor stadium, he believes.

As for UNLV athletics, Guiremand says upgrading facilities will be vital to success. "A big key in the next decade will be the job new Athletic Director Jim Livengood does with fundraising and upgrading the facilities for both the football and basketball programs," he says.

UNLV needs better locker rooms, an academic center for athletes, a basketball practice facility and new turf for the football practice field. Paving the parking lot at Sam Boyd Stadium would be nice. And paying more competitive coaching salaries would help. Livengood, fresh from a successful 15-year stint at the University of Arizona, has a track record of making such improvements.

"Talent-wise, Lon Kruger has the men's basketball program on its firmest footing since the end of the Jerry Tarkanian era, while a couple of good recruiting classes should make Bobby Hauck's football program a perennial bowl contender," Guiremand says.

Next week: My predictions for the new decade.

Geoff Schumacher (gschumacher@reviewjournal.com) is the Review-Journal's director of community publications, which includes oversight of CityLife, El Tiempo and Rebelnation.net. His column appears Friday.